Odds overview
Luxembourg to win is available at around 2.18, the draw at roughly 3.05 and Estonia to win at 3.50. In the main totals market, Under 2.5 goals at 1.50 is considerably shorter than Over 2.5 goals at 2.43. In the handicap market, Estonia (-1) at 1.42 looks more attractive than Luxembourg (-1) at 2.67.
Why Luxembourg are the favourites
Bookmakers make Luxembourg the favourites. A home win is available at 2.18, a draw at 3.05 and an Estonia win at 3.50.
- Luxembourg have been effective at limiting their opponents' attacking activity at home: their opponents have had fewer than 13.5 shots in all 10 of their last 10 home UEFA Nations League matches.
- Estonia have struggled to score: they have scored fewer than 1.5 goals in all 10 of their last 10 matches in official competitions.
Form and Line-up Luxembourg
Luxembourg played their previous match at home on 6 October 2026 and lost 0:2 to Bulgaria.
Laurent Jans has recovered from injury and returned to the national squad. But there are still absentees: Seid Korać, Kiki Martins and Yvandro Borges will miss the November matches through injury.
- Luxembourg have lost 7 of their last 10 matches in official competitions.
- Fewer than 3.5 goals have been scored in 8 of Luxembourg's last 10 home UEFA Nations League matches.
- There have been fewer than 10.5 corners in all 10 of Luxembourg's last 10 matches in official competitions.
Probable Luxembourg line-up (4-1-4-1): Anthony Moris, Laurent Jans, Florian Bohnert, Vahid Selimovic, Eric Veiga, Tomás Cruz, Omar Natami, Vincent Thill, Enzo dos Santos, Hamza Kadamani, Jazón Vieira.
Leandro Barreiro has injured a cruciate ligament, while Dirk Carlson is suspended after accumulating too many yellow cards.
Form and Line-up Estonia
Estonia drew 0:0 with Iceland in their most recent match on 6 October 2026. Before that, they drew with Bulgaria (0:0 on 29 September) and away to Iceland (1:1 on 26 September).
Vlasiy Sinyavskiy, Markus Soomets, Märten Kuusk and Rauno Sappinen were left out of Estonia's squad for the November matches because of health problems.
- Estonia have avoided defeat in 8 of their last 10 matches in official competitions.
- Fewer than 3.5 goals have been scored in 9 of Estonia's last 10 away UEFA Nations League matches.
- Estonia have committed at least as many fouls as their opponents in 9 of their last 10 UEFA Nations League matches.
Probable Estonia line-up (3-5-2): Matvei Igonen, Maksim Paskotsi, Karol Mets, Erko Tougjas, Rasmus Peetson, Kevor Palumets, Patrik Kristal, Markus Poom, Joseph Saliste, Karel Mustmaa, Mattias Männilaan.
The teams' chances
Luxembourg to win is offered at 2.18, with fair odds of 2.34 and a fair probability of 42.8%. The corresponding figures are 3.05, 3.27 and 30.6% for the draw, and 3.50, 3.75 and 26.6% for Estonia to win: a home win remains the most likely outcome.
| Outcome | Average odds | Average fair odds | Fair probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| Luxembourg to win | 2.18 | 2.34 | 42.8% |
| Draw | 3.05 | 3.27 | 30.6% |
| Estonia to win | 3.50 | 3.75 | 26.6% |
Total goals betting outlook
Under 2.5 goals at 1.50 is considerably shorter than Over 2.5 goals at 2.43. At the 2-goal line, the odds are close: Under 2 goals is 1.91 and Over 2 goals is 1.83. At the 3.5-goal line, Under 3.5 goals is 1.16, while Over 3.5 goals is 4.40.
| Line | Under | Over |
|---|---|---|
| 2.5 | 1.50 | 2.43 |
| 2 | 1.91 | 1.83 |
| 3.5 | 1.16 | 4.40 |
Handicap betting outlook
Estonia (-1) at 1.42 is quoted considerably shorter than Luxembourg (-1) at 2.67. For handicap (0), Luxembourg Draw No Bet is available at 1.51 and Estonia Draw No Bet at 2.41.
| Home | Handicap | Away |
|---|---|---|
| 2.67 | -1 | 1.42 |
| 1.51 | 0 | 2.41 |
Double chance forecast
| Bookmaker | 1X | 12 | X2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bet365 |
29/100
|
9/25
|
67/100
|
| William Hill |
29/100
|
7/20
|
7/10
|
| LeoVegas |
3/10
|
19/50
|
13/20
|
Odds are current as of the material publication date
Team goals betting outlook
The team goals markets reflect higher expectations for Luxembourg's scoring than Estonia's.
Luxembourg team goals
For Luxembourg, Under 0.5 team goals is 3.10 and Over 0.5 team goals is 1.32. At the 1-goal line, two sets of odds are listed: Under 1 goal at 2.15 and Over 1 goal at 1.65, as well as Under 1 goal at 1.50 and Over 1 goal at 2.45.
| Under | Team goals | Over |
|---|---|---|
| 3.10 | 0.5 | 1.32 |
| 2.15 | 1 | 1.65 |
| 1.50 | 1 | 2.45 |
Estonia team goals
For Estonia, Under 0.5 team goals is available at 2.30 and Over 0.5 at 1.56. Under 1.5 team goals at 1.24 is considerably shorter than Over 1.5 at 3.60, while at the 2.5-goal line Under 2.5 team goals is 1.03 compared with 7.90 for Over 2.5.
| Under | Team goals | Over |
|---|---|---|
| 2.30 | 0.5 | 1.56 |
| 1.24 | 1.5 | 3.60 |
| 1.03 | 2.5 | 7.90 |
