Odds Overview
Iceland are narrow favourites: an Iceland win is available at 2.35, while a Luxembourg win and a draw are quoted at around 3.10 and 3.35 respectively. In the main totals market, Under 2.5 goals at 1.75 is favoured over Over 2.5 goals at 2.10. In the handicap market, Iceland Draw No Bet (0) at 1.70 is considered more likely than Luxembourg Draw No Bet (0) at 2.18.
Why Iceland Are Favourites
Bookmakers favour the visitors: an Iceland win is quoted at 2.35, a Luxembourg win at 3.10 and a draw at 3.35.
- Before the autumn fixtures began, Iceland head coach Arnar Gunnlaugsson recalled Runar Alex Runarsson and Andri Lucas Gudjohnsen to the squad and included Gylfi Sigurdsson following an injury.
- Iceland have four matches in a short autumn period, so travel and recovery account for most of the work between games.
Form and Line-up Luxembourg
Luxembourg beat Bulgaria 2:1 away in the opening round of the UEFA Nations League.
- Under 3.5 goals were scored in 8 of Luxembourg's last 10 home UEFA Nations League matches.
- Luxembourg's opponents had fewer than 13.5 shots in each of their last 10 home UEFA Nations League matches.
- Luxembourg received no more yellow cards than their opponents in 9 of their last 10 home UEFA Nations League matches.
Probable Luxembourg line-up (4-2-3-1): Anthony Moris, Enes Mahmutovic, Florian Bohnert, Dirk Carlson, Laurent Jans, Tomás Moreira, Leandro Barreiro, Aiman Dardari, Danel Sinani, Vincent Thill, Hamza Kadamani.
Christopher Martins will miss the match.
Form and Line-up Iceland
Iceland began their autumn campaign with a 1:1 draw at home to Estonia.
- Iceland's opponents had more than 3.5 shots on target in 9 of their last 10 UEFA Nations League matches.
- Iceland's opponents committed fewer than 13.5 fouls in 9 of their last 10 UEFA Nations League matches.
- Iceland's opponents received more than 1.5 yellow cards in 9 of their last 10 UEFA Nations League matches.
Probable Iceland line-up (4-3-3): Hákon Rafn Valdimarsson, Victor Pálsson, Stefán Teitur Þórðarson, Daníel Leó Grétarsson, Mikael Egill Ellertsson, Jón Dagur Þorsteinsson, Hákon Arnar Haraldsson, Ísak Bergmann Jóhannesson, Albert Guðmundsson, Andri Lucas Guðjohnsen, Orri Steinn Óskarsson.
Elías Rafn Ólafsson will miss the match.
The Teams' Chances
An Iceland win has the highest fair probability at 40.7%, with average odds of 2.35 and fair odds of 2.46. A Luxembourg win is rated at 30.8%, with average odds of 3.10 and fair odds of 3.24. A draw has a probability of 28.5%, average odds of 3.35 and fair odds of 3.51.
| Result | Average odds | Average fair odds | Fair probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| Luxembourg win | 3.10 | 3.24 | 30.8% |
| Draw | 3.35 | 3.51 | 28.5% |
| Iceland win | 2.35 | 2.46 | 40.7% |
Total Goals Prediction
Under 2.5 goals is available at 1.75, compared with 2.10 for Over 2.5 goals. At the 2-goal line, Under 2 goals has the higher odds at 2.40, while Over 2 goals is 1.53. At the 3.5-goal line, Under 3.5 goals is quoted at 1.27 and Over 3.5 goals at 3.40.
| Line | Under | Over |
|---|---|---|
| 2.5 | 1.75 | 2.10 |
| 2 | 2.40 | 1.53 |
| 3.5 | 1.27 | 3.40 |
Handicap Prediction
Luxembourg (-1.5) is offered at 5.80 and Iceland (-1.5) at 4.50. Luxembourg (+1.5) is available at 1.15, compared with 1.09 for Iceland (+1.5). At the -1 handicap line, Luxembourg (-1) is 5.00 and Iceland (-1) is 3.70; at the +1 line, Luxembourg (+1) is 1.23 and Iceland (+1) is 1.12. At handicap (0), Iceland Draw No Bet (0) at 1.70 has shorter odds than Luxembourg Draw No Bet (0) at 2.18.
| Home | Handicap | Away |
|---|---|---|
| 5.80 | -1.5 | 4.50 |
| 1.15 | 1.5 | 1.09 |
| 5.00 | -1 | 3.70 |
| 1.23 | 1 | 1.12 |
| 2.18 | 0 | 1.70 |
Both Teams to Score Prediction
Both teams to score — Yes is quoted at 1.85, while Both teams to score — No is 1.90: the market slightly favours both sides scoring over a scenario in which at least one fails to score.
| Both teams to score | Odds |
|---|---|
| Yes | 1.85 |
| No | 1.90 |
Double chance forecast
| Bookmaker | 1X | 12 | X2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bet365 |
57/100
|
33/100
|
9/25
|
| 888sport |
3/5
|
33/100
|
9/25
|
Odds are current as of the material publication date
Team Total Goals Prediction
Bookmakers have set the following team total goal lines for this match: Luxembourg — 1 goal; Iceland — 1.5 goals.
Luxembourg Team Total Goals
Luxembourg team total goals: Over 0.5 goals is available at 1.40, compared with 2.75 for Under 0.5 goals. At the 1-goal line, the odds are close: Under 1 goal is 1.95 and Over 1 goal is 1.80. At the 1.5-goal line, Under 1.5 goals is quoted at 1.40 and Over 1.5 goals at 2.80.
| Under | Team total | Over |
|---|---|---|
| 2.75 | 0.5 | 1.40 |
| 1.95 | 1 | 1.80 |
| 1.40 | 1.5 | 2.80 |
Iceland Team Total Goals
Iceland team total goals: Over 0.5 goals is quoted at 1.27, while Under 0.5 goals is 3.45. At the 1-goal line, Under 1 goal is available at 2.40, compared with 1.53 for Over 1 goal; at the 1.5-goal line, Under 1.5 goals is 1.55 and Over 1.5 goals is 2.35. At the 2-goal line, Under 2 goals is offered at 1.17 and Over 2 goals at 4.20.
| Under | Team total | Over |
|---|---|---|
| 3.45 | 0.5 | 1.27 |
| 2.40 | 1 | 1.53 |
| 1.55 | 1.5 | 2.35 |
| 1.17 | 2 | 4.20 |
