Odds overview
Iceland are slight favourites: an Iceland win is available at 2.35, while a Luxembourg win and a draw are quoted at around 3.10 and 3.35. In the main totals market, Under 2.5 goals at 1.75 is favoured over Over 2.5 goals at 2.10. For a handicap of 0, Iceland at 1.70 are favoured over Luxembourg at 2.18.
Why Iceland are favourites
Bookmakers favour the visitors: an Iceland win is offered at 2.35, a Luxembourg win at 3.10 and a draw at 3.35.
- Ahead of the autumn fixtures, Iceland head coach Arnar Gunnlaugsson recalled Rúnar Alex Rúnarsson and Andri Lucas Guðjohnsen to the squad and included Gylfi Sigurdsson following an injury.
- Iceland have four matches in a short autumn spell, so travel and recovery account for most of the work between games.
Form and Line-up Luxembourg
Luxembourg beat Bulgaria 2:1 away in the opening round of the UEFA Nations League.
- Fewer than 3.5 goals were scored in 8 of Luxembourg's last 10 home UEFA Nations League matches.
- Luxembourg's opponents had fewer than 13.5 shots in their last 10 home UEFA Nations League matches.
- Luxembourg received no more yellow cards than their opponents in 9 of their last 10 home UEFA Nations League matches.
Probable Luxembourg line-up (4-2-3-1): Anthony Moris, Enes Mahmutovic, Florian Bohnert, Dirk Carlson, Laurent Jans, Tomás Moreira, Leandro Barreiro, Aiman Dardari, Danel Sinani, Vincent Thill, Hamza Kadamani.
Christopher Martins will miss the match.
Form and Line-up Iceland
Iceland opened their autumn campaign with a 1:1 home draw against Estonia.
- Iceland's opponents had more than 3.5 shots on target in 9 of their last 10 UEFA Nations League matches.
- Iceland's opponents committed fewer than 13.5 fouls in 9 of their last 10 UEFA Nations League matches.
- Iceland's opponents received more than 1.5 yellow cards in 9 of their last 10 UEFA Nations League matches.
Probable Iceland line-up (4-3-3): Hákon Rafn Valdimarsson, Victor Pálsson, Stefán Teitur Þórðarson, Daníel Leó Grétarsson, Mikael Egill Ellertsson, Jón Dagur Þorsteinsson, Hákon Arnar Haraldsson, Ísak Bergmann Jóhannesson, Albert Guðmundsson, Andri Lucas Guðjohnsen, Orri Steinn Óskarsson.
Elías Rafn Ólafsson will miss the match.
The teams' chances
An Iceland win has the highest margin-free probability at 40.7%, with odds of 2.35 and average fair odds of 2.46. A Luxembourg win is rated at 30.8%, with corresponding odds of 3.10 and 3.24. A draw has a 28.5% probability, odds of 3.35 and fair odds of 3.51.
| Outcome | Average odds | Average fair odds | Margin-free probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| Luxembourg win | 3.10 | 3.24 | 30.8% |
| Draw | 3.35 | 3.51 | 28.5% |
| Iceland win | 2.35 | 2.46 | 40.7% |
Total goals prediction
Under 2.5 goals is available at 1.75, compared with 2.10 for Over 2.5 goals. At a line of 2 goals, Under 2 has the higher odds at 2.40, while Over 2 is 1.53. At 3.5 goals, Under 3.5 is offered at 1.27 and Over 3.5 at 3.40.
| Line | Under | Over |
|---|---|---|
| 2.5 | 1.75 | 2.10 |
| 2 | 2.40 | 1.53 |
| 3.5 | 1.27 | 3.40 |
Handicap prediction
Luxembourg (-1.5) are offered at 5.80 and Iceland (-1.5) at 4.50. Luxembourg (+1.5) are available at 1.15, compared with 1.09 for Iceland (+1.5). On the -1 handicap line, the odds are 5.00 for Luxembourg (-1) and 3.70 for Iceland (-1); on the +1 line, they are 1.23 for Luxembourg (+1) and 1.12 for Iceland (+1). For a handicap of 0, Iceland at 1.70 have shorter odds than Luxembourg at 2.18.
| Home | Handicap | Away |
|---|---|---|
| 5.80 | -1.5 | 4.50 |
| 1.15 | +1.5 | 1.09 |
| 5.00 | -1 | 3.70 |
| 1.23 | +1 | 1.12 |
| 2.18 | 0 | 1.70 |
Both teams to score prediction
Both teams to score — Yes is offered at 1.85 and No at 1.90: the market slightly favours both teams scoring over a result in which at least one fails to score.
| Both teams to score | Odds |
|---|---|
| Yes | 1.85 |
| No | 1.90 |
Double chance forecast
| Bookmaker | 1X | 12 | X2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bet365 |
73/100
|
3/10
|
29/100
|
| William Hill |
3/5
|
33/100
|
9/25
|
| 888sport |
13/20
|
33/100
|
3/10
|
Odds are current as of the material publication date
Team total goals prediction
Bookmakers have set the following team goal totals for this match: Luxembourg — 1 goal; Iceland — 1.5 goals.
Luxembourg team total goals
For Luxembourg's team total, Over 0.5 goals is available at 1.40, compared with 2.75 for Under 0.5. At the 1-goal line, the odds are close: Under 1 is 1.95 and Over 1 is 1.80. At 1.5 goals, Under 1.5 is offered at 1.40 and Over 1.5 at 2.80.
| Under | Team total | Over |
|---|---|---|
| 2.75 | 0.5 | 1.40 |
| 1.95 | 1 | 1.80 |
| 1.40 | 1.5 | 2.80 |
Iceland team total goals
For Iceland's team total, Over 0.5 goals is offered at 1.27 and Under 0.5 at 3.45. At the 1-goal line, Under 1 is available at 2.40, compared with 1.53 for Over 1; at 1.5 goals, Under 1.5 is 1.55 and Over 1.5 is 2.35. At the 2-goal line, Under 2 is offered at 1.17 and Over 2 at 4.20.
| Under | Team total | Over |
|---|---|---|
| 3.45 | 0.5 | 1.27 |
| 2.40 | 1 | 1.53 |
| 1.55 | 1.5 | 2.35 |
| 1.17 | 2 | 4.20 |
Who Will Referee the Match
Enea Jorgji (Albania)
Matches — 6 (international matches, 2025/26–2026/27);
Average fouls per match — 26;
Average yellow cards per match (including second yellow cards) — 3.5;
Matches with a red card — 1 out of 6;
Matches with a penalty — 2 out of 6.
Anthony Moris
Dirk Carlson
Florian Bohnert
Laurent Jans
Hamza Kadamani
Leandro Barreiro
Mathias Olesen
Tomás Cruz
Vincent Thill
Aiman Dardari
Tiago Pereira Cardoso
Tim Kips
Eldin Džogović
Eric Veiga
Marvin Martins
Vahid Selimović
Timothé Rupil
Enzo dos Santos
Miguel Gonçalves
Sébastien Thill
Jayson Videira
Omar Natami
Hákon Valdimarsson
Daníel Grétarsson
Logi Tómasson
Victor Pálsson
Gylfi Sigurdsson
Hákon Haraldsson
Mikael Ellertsson
Stefán Thórdarson
Ísak Jóhannesson
Andri Guðjohnsen
Orri Óskarsson
Anton Einarsson
Rúnar Rúnarsson
Hörður Magnússon
Andri Fannar Baldursson
Arnór Sigurðsson
Aron Gunnarsson
Thórir Helgason
Brynjólfur Willumsson
Jón Dagur Thorsteinsson
Kristall Máni Ingason
Ísak Thorvaldsson
