Odds Overview
Lyon are favourites for Lyon to win at 1.92, against 3.70 for the draw and 3.95 for Fenerbahce to win. In the main total, Over 2.5 goals at 1.82 is priced slightly lower than Under 2.5 goals at 1.98. On the handicap line, Lyon Draw No Bet at 1.40 looks preferable to Fenerbahce Draw No Bet at 2.70.
Why Lyon Are Match Favourites
A Lyon win is priced at 1.92 (around a 49.9% probability excluding margin), the draw is available at 3.70, while a Fenerbahce victory is 3.95.
- Lyon have shown reliability at home in European competition: the team have avoided defeat in 9 of their last 10 home matches on the international stage.
- The French club deliberately made a full rotation in their recent Ligue 1 match to keep their key players fresh for the return game against Fener.
Form and Line-up Lyon
Lyon come into the return leg after an away win over Toulouse (2:0) in Ligue 1. Earlier in European competition, Lyon comfortably dealt with Sparta Prague at home, winning 3:0.
The first game against Fenerbahce ended in a draw (1:1). Malick Fofana is also available for the decisive match — the coaching staff have confirmed that.
Key numbers:
- In 8 of Lyon's last 10 home matches in European competition, the combined total shots by both teams was over 25.5.
- Across Lyon's last 10 home matches in European competition, the teams have had at least 9 shots on target between them 8 times.
- In 9 of their last 10 home matches in the Champions League, Lyon received no more than 2 yellow cards.
Probable Lyon line-up (4-2-3-1): Dominik Greif — Ainsley Maitland-Niles — Ruben Kluivert — Moussa Niakhate — Abner Vinicius — Tanner Tessmann — Tyler Morton — Ernest Nuamah — Corentin Tolisso — Malick Fofana — Lois Openda.
Form and Line-up Fenerbahce
Before travelling to France, Fenerbahce beat Konyaspor 4:2, while earlier in the Champions League they defeated Sturm Graz away (1:0).
However, after the first meeting with Lyon (1:1), the football director noted that the Turkish team still needed to improve their fitness and their efficiency in the final phase.
Key numbers:
- Kartal's side have scored in all seven matches since the start of the season.
- All of Fenerbahce's last 10 matches in European competition have featured at least 23 fouls.
- No more than 3 goals were scored in 9 of Fenerbahce's last 10 games on the international stage.
Probable Fenerbahce line-up (4-2-3-1): Ederson — Nelson Semedo — Milan Skriniar — Nathan Ake — Archie Brown — N'Golo Kante — Matteo Guendouzi — Mason Greenwood — Talisca — Dorgeles Nene — Vedat Muriqi.
Team Chances
Lyon to win: average odds 1.92, fair odds estimate — 2.00 and probability 49.9%. Draw: 3.70, fair odds estimate — 3.86 and 25.9%. Fenerbahce to win: 3.95, fair odds estimate — 4.12 and 24.2%.
| Outcome | Average odds | Average odds without margin | Probability without margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| Lyon to win | 1.92 | 2.00 | 49.9% |
| Draw | 3.70 | 3.86 | 25.9% |
| Fenerbahce to win | 3.95 | 4.12 | 24.2% |
Total Goals Prediction
On the 2.5 line, Under 2.5 goals is available at 1.98, while Over 2.5 goals is 1.82. At 3.5, Under 3.5 goals is much lower — 1.38 compared with 2.80 for Over 3.5 goals.
| Under | Line | Over |
|---|---|---|
| 1.98 | 2.5 | 1.82 |
| 1.38 | 3.5 | 2.80 |
Handicap Prediction
Lyon (-1.5) is offered at 3.25, Fenerbahce (-1.5) at 7.00. On the 1.5 line, the odds are 1.05 for Lyon (+1.5) and 1.30 for Fenerbahce (+1.5); on the -1 line, they are 2.65 and 6.20 respectively. Lyon (+1) is priced at 1.07, Fenerbahce (+1) at 1.48, while Draw No Bet is available at 1.40 for Lyon and 2.70 for Fenerbahce.
| Lyon | Handicap | Fenerbahce |
|---|---|---|
| 3.25 | (-1.5) | 7.00 |
| 1.05 | (+1.5) | 1.30 |
| 2.65 | (-1) | 6.20 |
| 1.07 | (+1) | 1.48 |
| 1.40 | (0) | 2.70 |
Both Teams To Score Prediction
Both Teams To Score - Yes is priced at 1.70, while Both Teams To Score - No, meaning at least one team will not score, is 2.07.
| Both teams to score | Odds |
|---|---|
| Yes | 1.70 |
| No | 2.07 |
Double Chance Prediction
Double chance 1X is available at 1.25, 12 at 1.28 and X2 at 1.88.
| 1X | 12 | X2 |
|---|---|---|
1/4
|
7/25
|
22/25
|
Team Total Prediction
For this match, the bookmakers have set the following team totals: Lyon — 1.5 goals, Fenerbahce — 1 goal.
Lyon Team Total
Lyon: Under 0.5 goals is priced at 4.50, Over 0.5 goals at 1.15; Under 1 goal is 3.25, Over 1 goal is 1.30. On the 1.5 line, the odds are almost level: 1.85 for Under 1.5 goals and 1.90 for Over 1.5 goals. At 2, Under 2 goals is available at 1.40, Over 2 goals at 2.75.
| Under | Team total | Over |
|---|---|---|
| 4.50 | 0.5 | 1.15 |
| 3.25 | 1 | 1.30 |
| 1.85 | 1.5 | 1.90 |
| 1.40 | 2 | 2.75 |
Fenerbahce Team Total
Fenerbahce: Under 0.5 goals is priced at 2.65, Over 0.5 goals at 1.43. On the 1 line, Under 1 goal is available at 1.85 and Over 1 goal at 1.90; on 1.5, it is 1.38 for Under 1.5 goals against 2.85 for Over 1.5 goals.
| Under | Team total | Over |
|---|---|---|
| 2.65 | 0.5 | 1.43 |
| 1.85 | 1 | 1.90 |
| 1.38 | 1.5 | 2.85 |
Who Will Referee the Match
Maurizio Mariani (Italy)
Matches - 15 (international matches, 2025-2026);
Average fouls per match - 21;
Average yellow cards per match (including second yellows) - 3.6;
Matches with red cards - 2 out of 15;
Matches with penalties - 2 out of 15.
