Odds Overview
In the 1X2 market, Maccabi Tel Aviv to win have a slight edge at 2.30 over Lugano to win at 2.95, while the draw is priced at 3.50. On the main total of 2.5, Over 2.5 goals at 1.85 is quoted slightly shorter than Under 2.5 goals at 1.90. In the handicap markets, on the 0 line Maccabi Tel Aviv (0) at 1.68 are notably shorter than Lugano (0) at 2.12.
Why Maccabi Tel Aviv Are Match Favourites
The bookmakers give the Israeli club a slight advantage: Maccabi Tel Aviv to win are offered at odds of 2.30, Lugano's success is priced at 2.95, and a draw in normal time is available at 3.50.
- Maccabi Tel Aviv consistently deal with opponents in nominal home matches: in 8 of their last 10 Conference League games, the Israelis outscored their opponents.
- The Israelis' home-field factor is diluted: the match will be played in Georgia at the neutral Batumi Arena, which partly levels out the hosts' usual advantage.
Form and Line-up Maccabi Tel Aviv
Their path into the Conference League was dramatic: after seeing off Sheriff 6:0 on aggregate, the Israelis lost to CSKA Sofia — 0:3 at home and 3:1 away. In the first match against Lugano, Ido Shahar scored the only goal just after the break, but Grgic restored the Swiss side's advantage from the penalty spot.
The domestic league in Israel has not started yet, so all of the team's match practice is coming through European competition — a factor that could affect their sharpness as the tie progresses.
Key numbers:
In 9 of Maccabi Tel Aviv's last 10 home Conference League matches, they and their opponents had at least 8 shots on target.
In 8 of their last 10 home games in the tournament, the team had at least 12 shot attempts.
Over 2.5 goals landed in 9 of their last 10 matches in all competitions.
Projected line-up (4-3-3): Ofek Melika — Noam Ben Harosh, Itai Ben Hamo, Raz Shlomo, Roy Revivo — Itamar Noy, Ido Shahar, Dor Peretz — Osher Davida, Helio Varela, Ester Sokler.
Form and Line-up Lugano
The Swiss side reached this round by coming through Dukagjini and Runavik (4:2 on aggregate), and between European fixtures they thrashed Vedeggio in the cup (10:1) and Zurich in the league (5:0). In the first meeting with Maccabi Tel Aviv, Behrens and Grgic scored, the latter from the penalty spot.
The key figure is Grgic: as well as scoring the winning penalty, he leads the team for assists and organises all their play in midfield.
Key numbers:
In all of Lugano's last 10 away Conference League matches, they and their opponents had at least 8 shots on target.
In 9 of their last 10 matches in the tournament, the team committed at least 14 fouls.
Over 2.5 goals landed in 8 of their last 10 matches in all competitions.
Projected line-up (3-4-2-1): David von Ballmoos — Antonios Papadopoulos, Lars Lukas Mai, Hannes Delcroix — Mattia Zanotti, Uran Bislimi, Anto Grgic, Yanis Cimignani — Renato Steffen, Daniel dos Santos Correia — Kevin Behrens.
Team Chances
Maccabi Tel Aviv to win are offered at 2.30; the no-margin estimate is 2.44 and 41.0%. For the draw, the figures are 3.50, 3.71 and 27.0%, and for Lugano to win they are 2.95, 3.13 and 32.0% respectively: the market rates the hosts slightly higher.
Outcome | Average Odds | Average Odds Without Margin | No-margin Probability |
Maccabi Tel Aviv to win | 2.30 | 2.44 | 41.0% |
Draw | 3.50 | 3.71 | 27.0% |
Lugano to win | 2.95 | 3.13 | 32.0% |
Total Goals Prediction
On the 2.5 line, Over 2.5 goals at 1.85 is quoted shorter than Under 2.5 goals at 1.90. At 3.5, the preference is even clearer for Under 3.5 goals at 1.35 against Over 3.5 goals at 2.90.
Line | Under | Over |
2.5 | 1.90 | 1.85 |
3.5 | 1.35 | 2.90 |
Handicap Prediction
On the -1.5 line, Maccabi Tel Aviv (-1.5) are 4.30 and Lugano (+1.5) are 5.20. With the 1.5 line, the prices are almost level: Maccabi Tel Aviv (+1.5) at 1.11 and Lugano (-1.5) at 1.16. On -1, Maccabi Tel Aviv (-1) at 3.50 are shorter than Lugano (+1) at 4.50, while on 1 it is Maccabi Tel Aviv (+1) at 1.15 against Lugano (-1) at 1.25. On the 0 line, Maccabi Tel Aviv (0) at 1.68 are quoted shorter than Lugano (0) at 2.12.
Hosts | Handicap | Visitors |
4.30 | -1.5 | 5.20 |
1.11 | 1.5 | 1.16 |
3.50 | -1 | 4.50 |
1.15 | 1 | 1.25 |
1.68 | 0 | 2.12 |
Both Teams To Score Prediction
Both teams to score - Yes at 1.68 is rated higher than Both teams to score - No at 2.10: the second option implies that at least one team will not score.
Both teams to score | Odds |
Yes | 1.68 |
No | 2.10 |
Double Chance Prediction
Among the double chances, 12 has the lowest price at 1.28, followed by 1X at 1.37; X2 is quoted higher at 1.58.
1X | 12 | X2 |
1.37 | 1.28 | 1.58 |
Team Total Prediction
For this match, bookmakers have set the following team totals: Maccabi Tel Aviv — 1.5 goals, Lugano — 1 goal.
Maccabi Tel Aviv Team Total
Maccabi Tel Aviv: on the 0.5 line, Under 0.5 goals at 3.85 is notably higher than Over 0.5 goals at 1.22; on 1, it is Under 1 goal at 2.60 against Over 1 goal at 1.43. On 1.5, Under 1.5 goals at 1.63 is quoted shorter than Over 1.5 goals at 2.15, and on 2, Under 2 goals at 1.25 is against Over 2 goals at 3.55.
Under | Team total | Over |
3.85 | 0.5 | 1.22 |
2.60 | 1 | 1.43 |
1.63 | 1.5 | 2.15 |
1.25 | 2 | 3.55 |
Lugano Team Total
Lugano: on the 0.5 line, Under 0.5 goals at 3.15 is higher than Over 0.5 goals at 1.30; on 1, it is Under 1 goal at 2.15 against Over 1 goal at 1.63. On 1.5, Under 1.5 goals at 1.48 is quoted shorter than Over 1.5 goals at 2.45.
Under | Team total | Over |
3.15 | 0.5 | 1.30 |
2.15 | 1 | 1.63 |
1.48 | 1.5 | 2.45 |
Who Will Referee the Match
Jeremie Pignard (France)
Matches – 6 (international matches, 2025–2026);
Average fouls per match – 20;
Average yellow cards per match (including second yellows) – 4.6;
Matches with red cards – 0 out of 6;
Matches with penalties – 1 out of 6.
