Odds overview
Slovenia are clear favourites: a Slovenia win is available at 1.63, compared with 3.75 for a draw and 6.00 for a North Macedonia win. In the main totals market, Under 2.5 goals at 1.58 is considered much more likely than Over 2.5 goals at 2.26. For the handicap, North Macedonia (1) at 1.67 are favoured over Slovenia (1) at 2.10.
Why Slovenia are favourites
Bookmakers favour Slovenia, offering odds of 1.63 for an away win. A draw is available at 3.75 and a North Macedonia win at 6.00.
- Slovenia have defended reliably: their opponents scored fewer than 1.5 goals in eight of their last ten UEFA Nations League matches.
- The hosts are on a losing run: North Macedonia have lost all five of their matches in the current UEFA Nations League campaign.
Form and Line-up North Macedonia
On 13 November, North Macedonia lost 1:2 away to Scotland. Their October matches against Switzerland (0:3) and Scotland (0:2) also ended in defeats without scoring.
September in the UEFA Nations League went badly too: North Macedonia lost 0:2 to Slovenia and suffered a 0:3 home defeat to Switzerland.
- North Macedonia have failed to win nine of their last ten matches in all official competitions.
- North Macedonia scored fewer than 1.5 goals in nine of their last ten matches in all official competitions.
Probable line-up: Stole Dimitrievski, Bojan Ilievski, Mario Mladenov, Visar Musliu, Ezgjan Alioski, Matej Gashtarov, Eljif Elmas, Darko Churlinov, Enis Bardhi, Ljupco Doriev, Elmin Rastoder
Forward Bojan Miovski was not called up for the November matches: the coaching staff cited his lack of playing time at club level.
Form and Line-up Slovenia
On 13 November, Slovenia drew 0:0 at home to Switzerland. Before that, in October, they beat Scotland 2:1 away but lost 1:2 to Switzerland.
According to the Football Association of Slovenia, the team need to secure second place in the group in their final match in Skopje, which would give them a place in the knockout play-off matches for promotion to League A.
- Slovenia scored fewer than 1.5 goals in nine of their last ten away matches in the UEFA Nations League.
- Fewer than 3.5 goals were scored in nine of Slovenia's last ten away matches in the UEFA Nations League.
Probable line-up: Jan Oblak, Srdjan Kuzmic, Vanja Drkusic, David Zec, Zan Zaletel, Zan Karnicnik, Aljosa Matko, Mark Zabukovnik, Adam Gnezda Čerin, Daniel Sturma, Zan Vipotnik.
Defender Jaka Bijol will miss the match through suspension after accumulating too many yellow cards. Forward Benjamin Sesko is also on the injury list with a shin injury.
The teams' chances
The average odds for a North Macedonia win are 6.00, with fair odds of 6.28 and a probability of 15.9%. A draw is quoted at 3.75, with fair odds of 3.93 and a probability of 25.5%. For a Slovenia win, the average odds are 1.63, the fair odds are 1.71 and the probability is 58.6%.
| Outcome | Average odds | Average fair odds | Fair probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| North Macedonia to win | 6.00 | 6.28 | 15.9% |
| Draw | 3.75 | 3.93 | 25.5% |
| Slovenia to win | 1.63 | 1.71 | 58.6% |
Total goals prediction
At the 2.5-goal line, Under 2.5 goals at 1.58 is favoured over Over 2.5 goals at 2.26. At the 2-goal line, the market slightly favours Over 2 goals at 1.71 over Under 2 goals at 2.05. At the 3.5-goal line, Under 3.5 goals is available at 1.19 and Over 3.5 goals at 4.05.
| Line | Under | Over |
|---|---|---|
| 2.5 | 1.58 | 2.26 |
| 2 | 2.05 | 1.71 |
| 3.5 | 1.19 | 4.05 |
Handicap prediction
North Macedonia with a handicap of 1 are quoted at 1.67, while Slovenia with a handicap of 1 are available at 2.10; the market favours the home handicap.
| Home | Handicap | Away |
|---|---|---|
| 1.67 | 1 | 2.10 |
Double chance forecast
| Bookmaker | 1X | 12 | X2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bet365 |
13/10
|
29/100
|
13/100
|
| William Hill |
13/10
|
1/4
|
3/25
|
| LeoVegas |
5/4
|
13/50
|
7/50
|
Odds are current as of the material publication date
Team total goals prediction
Bookmakers have set the following team goal lines for this match: North Macedonia — 0.5 goals; Slovenia — 1.5 goals.
North Macedonia team total goals
At North Macedonia's 0.5-goal line, Under 0.5 and Over 0.5 goals have the same odds of 1.87. At the 1.5-goal line, Under 1.5 goals is available at 1.13 and Over 1.5 goals at 4.85. At the 2.5-goal line, Under 2.5 goals is available at 1.01, compared with 9.10 for Over 2.5 goals.
| Under | Team total | Over |
|---|---|---|
| 1.87 | 0.5 | 1.87 |
| 1.13 | 1.5 | 4.85 |
| 1.01 | 2.5 | 9.10 |
Slovenia team total goals
For Slovenia, Over 0.5 goals at 1.20 is much shorter than Under 0.5 goals at 3.95. At the 1.5-goal line, Under 1.5 goals is available at 1.78 and Over 1.5 goals at 1.96. At the 2.5-goal line, Under 2.5 goals is quoted at 1.21, while Over 2.5 goals is at 3.85.
| Under | Team total | Over |
|---|---|---|
| 3.95 | 0.5 | 1.20 |
| 1.78 | 1.5 | 1.96 |
| 1.21 | 2.5 | 3.85 |
