Odds overview
Bayer Leverkusen to win is available at around 2.18, while Mainz to win is quoted at 3.00 and the draw at 3.90. In the main totals market, Over 2.5 goals at 1.45 is considered much more likely than Under 2.5 goals at 2.60. For the zero handicap, Bayer Leverkusen Draw No Bet (0) at 1.65 has shorter odds than Mainz Draw No Bet (0) at 2.25.
Why Bayer Leverkusen are favourites
The bookmakers favour the visitors: Bayer Leverkusen to win is quoted at 2.18, Mainz to win at 3.00, and the draw at 3.90.
- Mainz have failed to beat Bayer Leverkusen in six consecutive meetings, drawing twice and losing four times.
- Mainz's home results in the Bundesliga remain poor: across their last five home games over two seasons, they have taken just one point.
Form and Line-up Mainz
Mainz have had mixed results in the new Bundesliga season: they thrashed Hamburg (5:0) and beat Borussia Mönchengladbach (4:3) away, but drew at home with Paderborn 07 (0:0) and lost to Eintracht Frankfurt (1:3). During the break, they also beat Waldhof Mannheim (3:0) in a friendly.
At home, Mainz try to contain their opponents' attacks: in 9 of their last 10 home league matches, their opponents had no more than 14 shots. Those opponents have also drawn fewer than 2.5 yellow cards in 9 of the last 10 games at the MEWA Arena.
- Mainz took more than 4.5 corners in 8 of their last 10 Bundesliga home matches
- Mainz were not beaten on offsides in 9 of their last 10 Bundesliga home matches
- Fewer than 4.5 yellow cards were shown in 8 of Mainz's last 10 Bundesliga home matches
Probable Mainz line-up (3-3-2-2): Alexander Schwolow, Stefan Posch, Fabio Gruber, Kacper Potulski, Anthony Caci, Nadiem Amiri, Kaishu Sano, Lee Jae-sung, Phillipp Mwene, Sheraldo Becker, Phillip Tietz
Form and Line-up Bayer Leverkusen
Bayer Leverkusen were convincing in their last competitive Bundesliga match, beating RB Leipzig 2:0 at home.
Bayer Leverkusen play carefully and with structure away from home. Their players were caught offside fewer than 2.5 times in each of their last 10 away league matches, and Bayer Leverkusen received fewer than 2.5 yellow cards in 10 consecutive matches.
- Bayer Leverkusen's opponents scored fewer than 1.5 goals in 8 of their last 10 Bundesliga home matches
- Fewer than 3.5 offsides were recorded in Bayer Leverkusen's last 10 away Bundesliga matches
- Fewer than 4.5 yellow cards were shown in 8 of Bayer Leverkusen's last 10 Bundesliga matches
Probable Bayer Leverkusen line-up (4-2-3-1): Mark Flekken, Jarell Quansah, Edmond Tapsoba, Facundo Medina, Miguel Gutiérrez, Aleix García, Fernández, Moussa Diaby, Ibrahim Maza, Moreira, Patrick Schick
The teams' chances
Mainz to win: average odds of 3.00, fair odds of 3.15 and a 31.8% probability. The draw: 3.90, 4.09 and 24.5% respectively. Bayer Leverkusen to win is the most likely outcome: 2.18, fair odds of 2.29 and a 43.8% probability.
| Outcome | Average odds | Average fair odds | Probability without margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mainz to win | 3.00 | 3.15 | 31.8% |
| Draw | 3.90 | 4.09 | 24.5% |
| Bayer Leverkusen to win | 2.18 | 2.29 | 43.8% |
Total goals prediction
At the 2.5-goal line, Over 2.5 goals at 1.45 is favoured over Under 2.5 goals at 2.60. The market is more cautious at 3.5 goals: Under 3.5 goals is available at 1.73, while Over 3.5 goals is at 2.10.
| Line | Under | Over |
|---|---|---|
| 2.5 | 2.60 | 1.45 |
| 3.5 | 1.73 | 2.10 |
Handicap prediction
Bayer Leverkusen (-1.5) at 3.25 has shorter odds than Mainz (-1.5) at 5.00. At the +1.5 handicap line, Bayer Leverkusen (+1.5) are quoted at 1.12 against 1.30 for Mainz (+1.5). At the -1 line, Bayer Leverkusen (-1) are at 2.75 and Mainz (-1) at 4.40; at the +1 line, Bayer Leverkusen (+1) are at 1.16 and Mainz (+1) at 1.40. For the zero handicap, Bayer Leverkusen Draw No Bet (0) at 1.65 is favoured over Mainz Draw No Bet (0) at 2.25.
| Home | Handicap | Away |
|---|---|---|
| 5.00 | -1.5 | 3.25 |
| 1.30 | 1.5 | 1.12 |
| 4.40 | -1 | 2.75 |
| 1.40 | 1 | 1.16 |
| 2.25 | 0 | 1.65 |
Both teams to score prediction
Both teams to score — Yes is available at 1.42 and is clearly favoured over Both teams to score — No at 2.65, which requires at least one team to fail to score.
| Both teams to score | Odds |
|---|---|
| Yes | 1.42 |
| No | 2.65 |
Double chance forecast
Odds are current as of the material publication date
Team goals prediction
For this match, bookmakers have set the following team goal totals: Mainz — 1.5 goals; Bayer Leverkusen — 1.5 goals.
Mainz team goals
For Mainz team goals, Over 0.5 is available at 1.22 against 3.85 for Under 0.5; at the 1-goal line, Over 1 is 1.45 and Under 1 is 2.60. At 1.5 goals, Under 1.5 is quoted at 1.65 and Over 1.5 at 2.15; at the 2-goal line, Under 2 is 1.27 and Over 2 is 3.40.
| Under | Team goals | Over |
|---|---|---|
| 3.85 | 0.5 | 1.22 |
| 2.60 | 1 | 1.45 |
| 1.65 | 1.5 | 2.15 |
| 1.27 | 2 | 3.40 |
Bayer Leverkusen team goals
For Bayer Leverkusen team goals, Over 0.5 is available at 1.13 against 4.80 for Under 0.5; at the 1-goal line, Over 1 is 1.30 and Under 1 is 3.30. At 1.5 goals, Over 1.5 is quoted at 1.77 and Under 1.5 at 2.00; at the 2-goal line, Under 2 is 1.57 and Over 2 is 2.30.
| Under | Team goals | Over |
|---|---|---|
| 4.80 | 0.5 | 1.13 |
| 3.30 | 1 | 1.30 |
| 2.00 | 1.5 | 1.77 |
| 1.57 | 2 | 2.30 |
Who Will Referee the Match
Max Burda (Germany)
Matches — 15 (2. Bundesliga, Bundesliga, 2025/26–2026/27);
Average fouls per match — 25;
Average yellow cards per match (including second yellows) — 5.4;
Matches with a red card — 1 of 15;
Matches with a penalty — 7 of 15.
