Odds overview
Bayern Munich to win at 1.35 are clear favourites, while a Mainz 05 win and a draw have similar odds of 6.80 and 6.50. In the main totals market, Over 2.5 goals at 1.20 is considered much more likely than Under 2.5 goals at 3.90. In the handicap markets, Bayern Munich (-1.5) at 1.80 have shorter odds than Mainz 05 (+1.5) at 2.00, while Bayern Munich's advantage is even clearer on the zero handicap: 1.13 against 4.80.
Why Bayern Munich are favourites
Bayern Munich are clear favourites with the bookmakers, with odds of 1.35 for an away win. A draw is available at 6.50, while a Mainz 05 win is offered at 6.80.
- Bayern Munich have shown consistent results: they are unbeaten in their last 10 matches across all official competitions.
- The hosts have struggled at home: Mainz have failed to win in 9 of their last 10 home matches in the German league.
- The visitors' attack has been prolific: Bayern Munich have scored more than 1.5 goals in each of their last 10 official matches.
Form and Line-up Mainz
In their most recent match on 30 October, Mainz suffered a heavy 1:4 defeat to Elversberg. A few days earlier, on 27 October, they failed to score away to Bochum and lost 0:2.
After the match against Elversberg, head coach Urs Fischer described the first half as unsatisfactory. He said the team were repeating defensive mistakes and suggested the players might be facing psychological difficulties. Fischer nevertheless promised that the team would try to play better against Bayern Munich.
- Mainz have scored at least one goal in 8 of their last 10 official matches across all competitions.
- Mainz players have had more than 14.5 shots in 8 of their last 10 home Bundesliga matches.
Probable Mainz line-up (3-5-2): Robin Centner, Lennard Maloney, Danny da Costa, Kacper Potulski, Silvan Widmer, Anthony Caci, Paul Nebel, Kaishu Sano, Nadiem Amiri, Sheraldo Becker, Phillip Tietz
Form and Line-up Bayern Munich
In their most recent match on 3 November, Bayern Munich beat Atlético Madrid 2:0 away from home. Before that, they thrashed Magdeburg 6:1 on 28 October and won 3:1 away to Freiburg on 25 October.
- Bayern Munich have not lost any of their last 10 away Bundesliga matches.
- Bayern Munich have had more than 12.5 shots in each of their last 10 German league matches.
Probable Bayern Munich line-up (4-2-3-1): Jonas Urbig, Konrad Laimer, Dayot Upamecano, Kim Min-jae, Alphonso Davies, Joshua Kimmich, Aleksandar Pavlovic, Lennart Karl, Michael Olise, Tom Bischof, Harry Kane
The teams' chances
The margin-free estimates give Mainz 05 a 14.1% chance of winning at fair odds of 7.08, the draw a 14.8% chance at 6.77, and Bayern Munich a 71.1% chance at 1.41. The corresponding average odds are 6.80, 6.50 and 1.35.
| Outcome | Average odds | Fair odds | Margin-free probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mainz win | 6.80 | 7.08 | 14.1% |
| Draw | 6.50 | 6.77 | 14.8% |
| Bayern Munich win | 1.35 | 1.41 | 71.1% |
Total goals prediction
At the 2.5-goal line, Over 2.5 goals is available at 1.20, compared with 3.90 for Under 2.5 goals. At the 3.5-goal line, Over 3.5 goals also remains the shorter option: 1.55 against 2.35 for Under 3.5 goals.
| Line | Under | Over |
|---|---|---|
| 2.5 | 3.90 | 1.20 |
| 3.5 | 2.35 | 1.55 |
Handicap prediction
Bayern Munich (-1.5) are available at 1.80, while Mainz (+1.5) are at 2.00. In the zero-handicap market, Bayern Munich (0) at 1.13 have much shorter odds than Mainz (0) at 4.80.
| Home | Handicap | Away |
|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 1.80 | |
| 2.00 | 1.5 | |
| 4.80 | 0 | 1.13 |
Both teams to score prediction
Both teams to score — Yes at 1.40 looks more likely than Both teams to score — No at 2.75; the latter means at least one team will fail to score.
| Both teams to score | Odds |
|---|---|
| Yes | 1.40 |
| No | 2.75 |
Double chance forecast
| Bookmaker | 1X | 12 | X2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bet365 |
9/4
|
11/100
|
11/100
|
| 888sport |
9/4
|
3/25
|
11/100
|
Odds are current as of the material publication date
Team goals prediction
The bookmakers have set the following team goal lines for this match: Mainz — 1.5 goals; Bayern Munich — 2.5 goals.
Mainz team goals
For Mainz 05, Over 0.5 goals at 1.33 is favoured over Under 0.5 goals at 3.05. At the 1.5-goal line, Under 1.5 goals has shorter odds of 1.45 against 2.60 for Over 1.5 goals; at the 2.5-goal line, Under 2.5 goals is available at 1.09 against 5.80 for Over 2.5 goals.
| Under | Team goals | Over |
|---|---|---|
| 3.05 | 0.5 | 1.33 |
| 1.45 | 1.5 | 2.60 |
| 1.09 | 2.5 | 5.80 |
Bayern Munich team goals
For Bayern Munich, Over 1.5 goals at 1.20 is much more likely than Under 1.5 goals at 4.20. At the 2.5-goal line, Over 2.5 goals is available at 1.65 against 2.15 for Under 2.5 goals; at the 3.5-goal line, Under 3.5 goals becomes the favoured option at 1.45 against 2.60 for Over 3.5 goals.
| Under | Team goals | Over |
|---|---|---|
| 4.20 | 1.5 | 1.20 |
| 2.15 | 2.5 | 1.65 |
| 1.45 | 3.5 | 2.60 |
Who Will Referee the Match
Robert Schröder (Germany)
Matches — 12 (Bundesliga, 2025/26–2026/27);
Average fouls per match — 22;
Average yellow cards per match (including second yellows) — 3.8;
Matches with a red card — 1 out of 12;
Matches with a penalty — 5 out of 12.
