Odds overview
A home win at 1.68 is the clear favourite over the draw at 4.10 and an away win at 4.80. In the main goals market, Over 2.5 at 1.68 is quoted considerably shorter than Under 2.5 at 2.18. Mainz (-1.5) at 2.65 is longer than Paderborn (+1.5) at 1.42.
Why Mainz are favourites for the match
Bookmakers favour the hosts: Mainz to win is available at 1.68, the draw at 4.10, and Paderborn to win at 4.80.
Paderborn lost their top scorer Filip Bilbija in the summer after he scored 15 goals last season, making it more difficult for their attack to adapt to the top division.
Mainz consistently put opponents under pressure at home and had more offsides than their opponents in 9 of their last 10 Bundesliga home matches.
Form and Line-up Mainz
Under Urs Fischer, Mainz stabilised their results in the second half of last season and climbed to tenth in the table. In their first competitive match of the campaign, they thrashed Kriskhov 9:0 in the German Cup, with Phillip Tietz scoring four goals and Nadiem Amiri netting twice.
The hosts are well organised defensively at home: in 9 of their last 10 Bundesliga home matches, Mainz's opponents were caught offside no more than twice.
Key numbers:
Mainz did not have fewer offsides than their opponents in 9 of their last 10 Bundesliga home matches.
In 8 of their last 10 Bundesliga home matches, Mainz's opponents attempted no more than 14 shots.
In 9 of their last 10 Bundesliga home matches, Mainz's opponents received no more than 2 yellow cards.
Probable Mainz line-up (3-4-2-1): Robin Zentner — Danny da Costa — Fabio Gruber — Dominik Kohr — Anthony Caci — Kaishu Sano — Phillipp Mwene — Lee Jae-sung — Nadiem Amiri — Sheraldo Becker — Phillip Tietz.
Form and Line-up Paderborn
Paderborn began the season with a 4:2 win over Phonix Lubeck in the German Cup, but conceded twice and allowed their Regionalliga opponents 15 shots. Following the departure of a key forward, the club are rebuilding their attack, where new signing Gabriel Vidovic has impressed from the outset and has already scored in the cup match.
Key numbers:
No more than 9 shots on target were recorded in 9 of Paderborn's last 10 away matches.
In 9 of Paderborn's last 10 away matches, their opponents received no more than 2 yellow cards.
Paderborn's opponents took at least 5 corners in 8 of their last 10 away matches.
Probable Paderborn line-up (3-4-2-1): Markus Schubert — Jano ter Horst — Tjark Scheller — Mattes Hansen — Laurin Curda — Laurin Ulrich — Santiago Castaneda — Raphael Obermair — Albert Millgramm — Gabriel Vidovic — Stefano Marino.
Team chances
The fair-odds assessment gives a home win a 56.8% chance at odds of 1.76 versus 1.68 in the market, the draw 23.3% and 4.29 versus 4.10, and an away win 19.9% and 5.03 versus 4.80.
Outcome | Average odds | Average fair odds | Fair probability |
Mainz to win | 1.68 | 1.76 | 56.8% |
Draw | 4.10 | 4.29 | 23.3% |
Paderborn to win | 4.80 | 5.03 | 19.9% |
Total goals prediction
Over 2.5 is offered at 1.68 versus 2.18 for Under 2.5, while at the 3.5 line, Under 3.5 is quoted shorter at 1.48 versus 2.55 for Over 3.5.
Under | Line | Over |
2.18 | 2.5 | 1.68 |
1.48 | 3.5 | 2.55 |
Handicap prediction
Mainz (-1.5) are available at 2.65, Paderborn (+1.5) at 1.42; Mainz (-1) are quoted at 2.12 and Paderborn (+1) at 1.72. On the draw-no-bet line, Mainz (0) at 1.27 are considerably shorter than Paderborn (0) at 3.40.
Mainz | Handicap | Paderborn |
2.65 | (-1.5) | — |
— | (+1.5) | 1.42 |
2.12 | (-1) | — |
— | (+1) | 1.72 |
1.27 | (0) | 3.40 |
Both teams to score prediction
Both teams to score - Yes at 1.65 is quoted shorter than Both teams to score - No at 2.18: the latter option means that at least one team will not score.
Both teams to score | Odds |
Yes | 1.65 |
No | 2.18 |
Double chance prediction
1X at 1.20 and 12 at 1.25 are priced similarly, while X2 at 2.20 is quoted considerably higher.
1X | 12 | X2 |
1.20 | 1.25 | 2.20 |
Team total prediction
For this match, bookmakers have set the following team totals: Mainz — 1.5 goals; Paderborn — 1 goal.
Mainz team total
Mainz: Over 0.5 at 1.08 is quoted shorter than Under 0.5 at 5.90; Over 1 at 1.18 is shorter than Under 1 at 4.10. At the 1.5 line, Over at 1.67 is favoured over Under at 2.13, while at the 2 line, Under at 1.62 is quoted shorter than Over at 2.20.
Under | Team total | Over |
5.90 | 0.5 | 1.08 |
4.10 | 1 | 1.18 |
2.13 | 1.5 | 1.67 |
1.62 | 2 | 2.20 |
Paderborn team total
Paderborn: Over 0.5 at 1.45 is quoted shorter than Under 0.5 at 2.65. At the 1 line, Under at 1.70 is shorter than Over at 2.10, while at the 1.5 line, Under at 1.30 is shorter than Over at 3.20.
Under | Team total | Over |
2.65 | 0.5 | 1.45 |
1.70 | 1 | 2.10 |
1.30 | 1.5 | 3.20 |
Who Will Referee the Match
Tobias Stieler (Germany)
Matches — 14 (Bundesliga, 2025/26);
Average fouls per match — 19;
Average yellow cards per match, including second yellows — 3;
Matches with red cards — 4 of 14;
Matches with penalties — 5 of 14.
