Odds overview
Mainz are favourites: a home win is available at 1.75, while the draw and a Werder Bremen win are quoted at around 4.20–4.30. In the main totals market, Over 2.5 goals at 1.55 is a considerably shorter option than Under 2.5 goals at 2.35. For the handicap, Mainz (-1.5) at 2.70 are much shorter than Werder Bremen (-1.5) at 7.00.
Why Mainz are favourites
Bookmakers favour Mainz: a home win is offered at 1.75, a Werder Bremen win at 4.30 and the draw at 4.20.
- Ahead of Matchday 7, Mainz are above Werder Bremen in the Bundesliga table.
- The hosts have another attacking option: Paul Nebel has recovered from injury and came off the bench in their last match.
Form and Line-up Mainz
Mainz beat Schalke 04 1:0 in the previous Bundesliga round thanks to a 24th-minute goal from Phillip Tietz. With 2.34 expected goals (xG), they rank third in the league's pre-match figures.
- Mainz had more than 14.5 shots, including blocked attempts, in 9 of their last 10 Bundesliga matches.
- In 9 of Mainz's last 10 league matches, the two teams combined for more than 8.5 shots on target.
- Mainz committed more than 10.5 fouls in 8 of their last 10 home Bundesliga matches.
Probable Mainz line-up (3-5-2): Alexander Schwolow, Phillipp Mwene, Stefan Posch, Kacper Potulski, Anthony Caci, Danny da Costa, Kaishu Sano, Lee Jae-sung, Nadiem Amiri, Phillip Tietz, Sheraldo Becker
Form and Line-up Werder Bremen
Werder Bremen head into this away match after fighting back for a 2:2 draw with Paderborn. They trailed 0:2 at half-time but rescued the match through a Niclas Füllkrug brace. They are unbeaten in five league matches and have come back from two goals down in each of their last three games.
- Werder Bremen had fewer than 5.5 shots on target in their last 10 away Bundesliga matches.
- Werder Bremen took fewer than 5.5 corners in 9 of their last 10 away league matches.
- In Werder Bremen's last 10 Bundesliga matches, the two teams combined for more than 25.5 shots.
Probable Werder Bremen line-up (4-2-3-1): Karl Hein, Arthur, Amos Pieper, Marco Friedl, Olivier Deman, Ludovit Reis, Youri Regeer, Eren Dinkçi, Chuki, Marco Grüll, Niclas Füllkrug
Match outcome probabilities
A Mainz win is quoted at 1.75, with fair odds of 1.82 and a 54.8% probability. The draw is offered at 4.20, with fair odds of 4.38 and a 22.8% probability; a Werder Bremen win is quoted at 4.30, with fair odds of 4.48 and a 22.3% probability. Mainz have a clear advantage, while the other two outcomes are close together.
| Outcome | Average odds | Average fair odds | Fair probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mainz to win | 1.75 | 1.82 | 54.8% |
| Draw | 4.20 | 4.38 | 22.8% |
| Werder Bremen to win | 4.30 | 4.48 | 22.3% |
Total goals prediction
At the 2.5-goal line, Over 2.5 goals at 1.55 are favoured over Under 2.5 goals at 2.35. At 3.5 goals, the picture reverses: Under 3.5 goals are offered at 1.60 and Over 3.5 goals at 2.35.
| Line | Under | Over |
|---|---|---|
| 2.5 | 2.35 | 1.55 |
| 3.5 | 1.60 | 2.35 |
Handicap prediction
Mainz (-1.5) at 2.70 are shorter than Werder Bremen (-1.5) at 7.00. At the 1.5 line, Mainz (1.5) are offered at 1.05 and Werder Bremen (1.5) at 1.40; at -1, the odds are 2.25 versus 6.20 in favour of Mainz (-1). At the 1 line, Mainz (1) are quoted at 1.07 and Werder Bremen (1) at 1.65, while with a zero handicap the odds are 1.32 for Mainz (0) and 3.05 for Werder Bremen (0).
| Home | Handicap | Away |
|---|---|---|
| 2.70 | -1.5 | 7.00 |
| 1.05 | 1.5 | 1.40 |
| 2.25 | -1 | 6.20 |
| 1.07 | 1 | 1.65 |
| 1.32 | 0 | 3.05 |
Both teams to score prediction
Both teams to score — Yes at 1.55 is shorter than Both teams to score — No at 2.35. The market therefore favours both teams scoring over a scenario in which at least one fails to score.
| Both teams to score | Odds |
|---|---|
| Yes | 1.55 |
| No | 2.35 |
Double chance forecast
Odds are current as of the material publication date
Team goals prediction
For this match, bookmakers have set the following team goal totals: Mainz — 2 goals; Werder Bremen — 1 goal.
Mainz team goals
For Mainz team goals, Over 0.5 at 1.10 is considerably shorter than Under 0.5 at 5.50. At the 1.5 line, Over 1.5 is offered at 1.63 versus 2.20 for Under 1.5; at 2, Under 2 is 1.67 versus 2.15 for Over 2. At 2.5, Under 2.5 at 1.40 is favoured, while Over 2.5 is 2.75.
| Under | Team goals | Over |
|---|---|---|
| 5.50 | 0.5 | 1.10 |
| 2.20 | 1.5 | 1.63 |
| 1.67 | 2 | 2.15 |
| 1.40 | 2.5 | 2.75 |
Werder Bremen team goals
For Werder Bremen team goals, Over 0.5 at 1.38 is shorter than Under 0.5 at 2.80. At the 1-goal line, Under 1 at 1.90 and Over 1 at 1.85 are almost evenly matched, while at 1.5, Under 1.5 at 1.40 is clearly favoured over Over 1.5 at 2.70.
| Under | Team goals | Over |
|---|---|---|
| 2.80 | 0.5 | 1.38 |
| 1.90 | 1 | 1.85 |
| 1.40 | 1.5 | 2.70 |
Who Will Referee the Match
Florian Badstübner (Germany)
Matches — 18 (Bundesliga, 2025/26–2026/27);
Average fouls per match — 22;
Average yellow cards per match (including second yellows) — 2.2;
Matches with a red card — 1 of 18;
Matches with a penalty — 2 of 18.
