Odds overview
Mainz are favourites at 1.75 to win, while the draw and a Werder Bremen win are around 4.20–4.30. In the main totals market, Over 2.5 goals at 1.55 is much shorter than Under 2.5 goals at 2.35. For the handicaps, Mainz (-1.5) at 2.70 are considerably shorter than Werder Bremen (-1.5) at 7.00.
Why Mainz are favourites
Bookmakers favour Mainz: a home win is available at 1.75, a Werder Bremen win at 4.30 and the draw at 4.20.
- Ahead of Matchday 7, Mainz sit above Werder Bremen in the Bundesliga table.
- The hosts have another attacking option: Paul Nebel has recovered from injury and came off the bench in their last match.
Form and Line-up Mainz
Mainz beat Schalke 04 1:0 in the previous Bundesliga round thanks to Phillip Tietz's 24th-minute goal. With 2.34 expected goals (xG), the team rank third in the league's pre-match figures.
- Mainz had more than 14.5 shots, including blocked shots, in 9 of their last 10 Bundesliga matches.
- The two teams combined for more than 8.5 shots on target in 9 of Mainz's last 10 league matches.
- Mainz committed more than 10.5 fouls in 8 of their last 10 Bundesliga home matches.
Probable Mainz line-up (3-5-2): Alexander Schwolow, Phillipp Mwene, Stefan Posch, Kacper Potulski, Anthony Caci, Danny da Costa, Kaishu Sano, Lee Jae-sung, Nadiem Amiri, Phillip Tietz, Sheraldo Becker
Form and Line-up Werder Bremen
Werder Bremen travel after fighting back for a 2:2 draw with Paderborn. They trailed 0:2 at half-time but rescued the match through a Niclas Füllkrug brace. They are unbeaten in five league matches and have recovered from two-goal deficits in each of their last three games.
- Werder Bremen had fewer than 5.5 shots on target in each of their last 10 Bundesliga away matches.
- Werder Bremen took fewer than 5.5 corners in 9 of their last 10 away league games.
- The two teams combined for more than 25.5 shots in each of Werder Bremen's last 10 Bundesliga matches.
Probable Werder Bremen line-up (4-2-3-1): Karl Hein, Arthur, Amos Pieper, Marco Friedl, Olivier Deman, Ludovit Reis, Youri Regeer, Eren Dinkçi, Chuki, Marco Grüll, Niclas Füllkrug
Teams' chances
A Mainz win is offered at 1.75, with fair odds of 1.82 and a fair probability of 54.8%. The draw is available at 4.20, with fair odds of 4.38 and a probability of 22.8%; the corresponding figures for a Werder Bremen win are 4.30, 4.48 and 22.3%. Mainz have a clear advantage, while the other two outcomes are close.
| Outcome | Average odds | Average fair odds | Fair probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mainz to win | 1.75 | 1.82 | 54.8% |
| Draw | 4.20 | 4.38 | 22.8% |
| Werder Bremen to win | 4.30 | 4.48 | 22.3% |
Total goals betting
At the 2.5-goal line, Over 2.5 goals at 1.55 are shorter than Under 2.5 goals at 2.35. At 3.5 goals, it is the other way round: Under 3.5 goals are available at 1.60 and Over 3.5 goals at 2.35.
| Line | Under | Over |
|---|---|---|
| 2.5 | 2.35 | 1.55 |
| 3.5 | 1.60 | 2.35 |
Handicap betting
Mainz (-1.5) at 2.70 are shorter than Werder Bremen (-1.5) at 7.00. At the +1.5 line, Mainz (+1.5) are available at 1.05 and Werder Bremen (+1.5) at 1.40; at -1, the odds are 2.25 and 6.20 respectively, with Mainz (-1) shorter. At the +1 line, Mainz (+1) are offered at 1.07 and Werder Bremen (+1) at 1.65, while a zero handicap is available at 1.32 for Mainz (0) and 3.05 for Werder Bremen (0).
| Home | Handicap | Away |
|---|---|---|
| 2.70 | -1.5 | 7.00 |
| 1.05 | 1.5 | 1.40 |
| 2.25 | -1 | 6.20 |
| 1.07 | 1 | 1.65 |
| 1.32 | 0 | 3.05 |
Both teams to score betting
Both teams to score — Yes at 1.55 is shorter than Both teams to score — No at 2.35, so the market considers goals from both sides more likely than at least one team failing to score.
| Both teams to score | Odds |
|---|---|
| Yes | 1.55 |
| No | 2.35 |
Double chance forecast
| Bookmaker | 1X | 12 | X2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bet365 |
9/50
|
11/50
|
21/20
|
| 888sport |
11/50
|
11/50
|
21/20
|
Odds are current as of the material publication date
Team total goals betting
Bookmakers have set the following team goal totals for this match: Mainz — 2 goals; Werder Bremen — 1 goal.
Mainz team goals total
For Mainz's team goal total, Over 0.5 goals at 1.10 is much shorter than Under 0.5 goals at 5.50. At the 1.5-goal line, Over 1.5 goals are available at 1.63, compared with 2.20 for Under 1.5 goals; at 2 goals, Under 2 is 1.67 against 2.15 for Over 2. At 2.5 goals, Under 2.5 at 1.40 is shorter than Over 2.5 at 2.75.
| Under | Team total | Over |
|---|---|---|
| 5.50 | 0.5 | 1.10 |
| 2.20 | 1.5 | 1.63 |
| 1.67 | 2 | 2.15 |
| 1.40 | 2.5 | 2.75 |
Werder Bremen team goals total
For Werder Bremen's team goal total, Over 0.5 goals at 1.38 is shorter than Under 0.5 goals at 2.80. At the 1-goal line, Under 1 at 1.90 and Over 1 at 1.85 are almost level, while at 1.5 goals, Under 1.5 at 1.40 is much shorter than Over 1.5 at 2.70.
| Under | Team total | Over |
|---|---|---|
| 2.80 | 0.5 | 1.38 |
| 1.90 | 1 | 1.85 |
| 1.40 | 1.5 | 2.70 |
