Odds overview
Real Sociedad are favourites to win at 2.15, while a Málaga win and a draw are available at around 3.30–3.55. In the main totals market, Over 2.5 goals at 1.80 is shorter than Under 2.5 goals at 2.02. For the handicap (0) market, Real Sociedad at 1.58 are favoured over Málaga at 2.40.
Why Real Sociedad are favourites
Bookmakers offer odds of 2.15 on a Real Sociedad win and 3.30 on a Málaga win. A draw is available at 3.55.
- Real Sociedad are sixth in La Liga, while Málaga are bottom of the table.
- Málaga have scored just four goals this season — the fewest in the league.
- The hosts are the only La Liga team yet to win this season.
Form and Line-up Málaga
Málaga drew 1:1 at home to Espanyol Barcelona in the latest La Liga round. Their winless run in the league has reached eight matches. Málaga have scored only four goals and conceded 13. With four points, the hosts sit bottom of the La Liga table.
- Málaga have scored fewer than 1.5 goals in 9 of their last 10 home matches in La Liga.
- There have been more than 8.5 corners in 8 of Málaga's last 10 home matches in La Liga.
- Málaga have committed at least 12 fouls in 9 of their last 10 home matches in La Liga.
Probable line-up (4-1-4-1): Alfonso Herrero, Carlos Puga, Fernando Calero, Ángel Recio, Rafael Garrido, Rafael Rodríguez, David Larrubia, Pablo Martinez, Dani Lorenzo, Joaquín Muñoz, Chupe.
Unavailable: Aarón Ochoa, Julen Lobete, Diego Murillo, Jens-Lys Cajuste, Moussa Diarra, Juan Cruz (all injured).
Form and Line-up Real Sociedad
On 11 October 2026, Real Sociedad beat Deportivo La Coruña 3:2 at home and climbed to sixth in the table. The Basque side also played in the UEFA Europa League, where they conceded in the 88th minute against Union and failed to hold on to their lead — 1:1.
- There have been more than 8.5 corners in 8 of Real Sociedad's last 10 away matches in La Liga.
- There have been fewer than 4.5 offsides in 9 of Real Sociedad's last 10 away matches in La Liga.
- Real Sociedad have taken fewer than 13.5 shots in 9 of their last 10 away matches in La Liga.
Probable line-up (4-4-2): Álex Remiro, Héctor Fort, Mamadou Sarr, Jon Martín, Sergio Gómez, Ander Barrenetxea, Yangel Herrera, Carlos Soler, Gonçalo Guedes, Luka Sučić, Arsen Zakharyan.
Unavailable: Álvaro Odriozola, Jon Aramburu, Luken Beitia (all injured), Pablo Marín (suspended).
The teams' chances
Real Sociedad to win: odds of 2.15, fair odds of 2.26 and a probability of 44.3%. For a Málaga win, the respective figures are 3.30, 3.46 and 28.9%; for a draw, they are 3.55, 3.73 and 26.8%.
| Outcome | Average odds | Average fair odds | Fair probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| Málaga to win | 3.30 | 3.46 | 28.9% |
| Draw | 3.55 | 3.73 | 26.8% |
| Real Sociedad to win | 2.15 | 2.26 | 44.3% |
Total goals prediction
Over 2.5 goals at 1.80 is shorter than Under 2.5 goals at 2.02. At the 3.5-goal line, Under 3.5 goals at 1.40 is favoured over Over 3.5 goals at 2.75.
| Line | Under | Over |
|---|---|---|
| 2.5 | 2.02 | 1.80 |
| 3.5 | 1.40 | 2.75 |
Handicap prediction
Málaga (-1.5) are available at 5.80 and Real Sociedad (-1.5) at 3.70; at +1.5, the odds are 1.23 for Málaga (+1.5) and 1.08 for Real Sociedad (+1.5). Real Sociedad (-1) at 3.00 are shorter than Málaga (-1) at 5.10, while at +1 the odds are 1.11 for Real Sociedad (+1) and 1.35 for Málaga (+1). In the handicap (0) market, Real Sociedad at 1.58 are favoured over Málaga at 2.40.
| Home | Handicap | Away |
|---|---|---|
| 5.80 | -1.5 | 3.70 |
| 1.23 | 1.5 | 1.08 |
| 5.10 | -1 | 3.00 |
| 1.35 | 1 | 1.11 |
| 2.40 | 0 | 1.58 |
Both teams to score prediction
Both teams to score — Yes at 1.65 appears more likely than Both teams to score — No at 2.17, which would mean at least one team failing to score.
| Both teams to score | Odds |
|---|---|
| Yes | 1.65 |
| No | 2.17 |
Team total goals prediction
Bookmakers have set the following team goal totals for this match: Málaga — 1 goal; Real Sociedad — 1.5 goals.
Málaga team total goals
Málaga team total goals: Over 0.5 at 1.35 is shorter than Under 0.5 at 2.95; at the 1-goal line, Over 1 is available at 1.70 and Under 1 at 2.10. Under 1.5 at 1.48 is favoured over Over 1.5 at 2.55.
| Under | Team total | Over |
|---|---|---|
| 2.95 | 0.5 | 1.35 |
| 2.10 | 1 | 1.70 |
| 1.48 | 1.5 | 2.55 |
Real Sociedad team total goals
Real Sociedad team total goals: Over 0.5 at 1.17 is considerably shorter than Under 0.5 at 4.20, while Over 1 at 1.35 is shorter than Under 1 at 2.90. At the 1.5-goal line, Under 1.5 at 1.75 is shorter than Over 1.5 at 2.00; at the 2-goal line, Under 2 is available at 1.33 and Over 2 at 3.00.
| Under | Team total | Over |
|---|---|---|
| 4.20 | 0.5 | 1.17 |
| 2.90 | 1 | 1.35 |
| 1.75 | 1.5 | 2.00 |
| 1.33 | 2 | 3.00 |
Who Will Referee the Match
Luis Bestard (Spain)
Matches — 24 (La Liga, 2025/26–2026/27);
Average fouls per match — 27;
Average yellow cards per match (including second yellows) — 5.3;
Matches with a red card — 1 of 24;
Matches with a penalty — 4 of 24.
