Odds overview
Villarreal are favourites in the 1X2 market: away win is 1.95, compared with 3.60 for a home win and 3.85 for a draw. In the main totals market, Over 2.5 goals at 1.65 is preferred to Under 2.5 goals at 2.20. In the Draw No Bet market, Villarreal at 1.47 are markedly more likely than Malaga at 2.60.
Why Villarreal are favourites
The bookmakers favour the visitors: Villarreal to win is available at 1.95, while a Malaga win is 3.60 and the draw is 3.85.
• Villarreal consistently apply pressure in attack, registering at least four shots on target in 8 of their last 10 matches.
• Malaga have won less often, losing or drawing 9 of their last 10 La Liga matches.
Form and Line-up Malaga
Malaga shared the points in their previous two La Liga rounds: they drew 0:0 with Levante at home, then drew 1:1 away to Celta thanks to midfielder Adrian Nino, who equalised in the 83rd minute.
Head coach Juan Funes has spoken plainly about the need to manage the team's resources across three matches in eight days. The demanding schedule has also exposed a lack of goals: Malaga are second from bottom in La Liga for goals scored, averaging 0.4 per game.
- Malaga committed at least 12 fouls in each of their last 10 home La Liga matches
- Malaga registered no more than four shots on target in each of their last 10 home La Liga matches
- At least 9 corners were recorded in 8 of Malaga's last 10 home La Liga matches
Probable Malaga line-up (4-1-4-1): Alfonso Herrero, Rafita Garrido, Angel Recio, Einar Galilea, Jose Salinas, David Larrubia, Izan Merino, Pablo Martinez, Joaquin Munoz, Dani Lorenzo, Chupe
Absentees: Fernando Calero, Aaron Ochoa, Adam Aznou, Carlos Dotor, Diego Murillo, Julen Lobete, Alex Pastor (injured)
Form and Line-up Villarreal
In the previous round, Villarreal lost 1:2 at home to Real Betis, allowing 26 shots against their goal compared with 14 attempts of their own.
The team are still without a win under Inigo Perez after the opening five league rounds. The fixture load makes matters worse: the trip to Malaga comes only three days after the match against Real Betis and a recent Champions League fixture in Dortmund.
- Villarreal failed to win 9 of their last 10 away La Liga matches
- Villarreal took at least five corners in 8 of their last 10 La Liga matches
- Villarreal scored fewer than 2.5 goals in each of their last 10 away La Liga matches
Probable Villarreal line-up (4-4-2): Peter Gulacsi, Pau Navarro, Carlos Romero, Renato Veiga, Santiago Mourino, Nicolas Pepe, Santi Comesana, Pape Gueye, Tajon Buchanan, Gerard Moreno, Georges Mikautadze
Absentees: Juan Foyth (injured)
Team chances
A Malaga win is available at 3.60; fair odds are 3.78 and the probability is 26.4%. The draw is 3.85, with fair odds of 4.04 and a probability of 24.7%. Villarreal to win at 1.95 remains the most likely outcome: fair odds are 2.05 and the probability is 48.8%.
| Outcome | Average odds | Average fair odds | No-margin probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| Malaga win | 3.60 | 3.78 | 26.4% |
| Draw | 3.85 | 4.04 | 24.7% |
| Villarreal win | 1.95 | 2.05 | 48.8% |
Total goals prediction
For the 2.5 line, Under 2.5 goals at 2.20 is longer than Over 2.5 goals at 1.65. For the 3.5 line, by contrast, Under 3.5 goals at 1.50 is markedly preferred to Over 3.5 goals at 2.50.
| Line | Under | Over |
|---|---|---|
| 2.5 | 2.20 | 1.65 |
| 3.5 | 1.50 | 2.50 |
Handicap prediction
For Malaga (-1.5), the odds of 6.10 are substantially longer than 3.20 for Villarreal (-1.5). On the 1.5 line, Villarreal (+1.5) at 1.08 are preferred to Malaga (+1.5) at 1.30. Malaga (-1) at 5.40 are rated lower than Villarreal (-1) at 2.65, while on the 1 line Villarreal (+1) at 1.10 are notably shorter than Malaga (+1) at 1.48. In the Draw No Bet market, Villarreal at 1.47 are shorter than Malaga at 2.60.
| Home | Handicap | Away |
|---|---|---|
| 6.10 | -1.5 | 3.20 |
| 1.30 | 1.5 | 1.08 |
| 5.40 | -1 | 2.65 |
| 1.48 | 1 | 1.10 |
| 2.60 | 0 | 1.47 |
Both teams to score prediction
Both teams to score - Yes at 1.60 looks more likely than Both teams to score - No at 2.30, namely a scenario in which at least one team does not score.
| Both teams to score | Odds |
|---|---|
| Yes | 1.60 |
| No | 2.30 |
Double chance forecast
| Bookmaker | 1X | 12 | X2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bet365 |
4/5
|
29/100
|
29/100
|
| 888sport |
17/20
|
1/4
|
29/100
|
Odds are current as of the material publication date
Team total goals prediction
For this match, the bookmakers have set the following team totals: Malaga — 1 goal, Villarreal — 1.5 goals.
Malaga team total
Malaga team total: Over 0.5 goals at 1.35 is shorter than Under 0.5 goals at 3.00. On the 1 line, Over 1 goal at 1.70 is preferred to Under 1 goal at 2.10, while on the 1.5 line Under 1.5 goals at 1.45 is markedly shorter than Over 1.5 goals at 2.60.
| Under | Team total | Over |
|---|---|---|
| 3.00 | 0.5 | 1.35 |
| 2.10 | 1 | 1.70 |
| 1.45 | 1.5 | 2.60 |
Villarreal team total
Villarreal team total: Over 0.5 goals at 1.13 is considerably shorter than Under 0.5 goals at 4.80, while Over 1 goal at 1.28 is shorter than Under 1 goal at 3.35. On the 1.5 line, Over 1.5 goals at 1.83 is only slightly preferred to Under 1.5 goals at 1.91. For the 2 line, Under 2 goals at 1.48 is shorter than Over 2 goals at 2.55.
| Under | Team total | Over |
|---|---|---|
| 4.80 | 0.5 | 1.13 |
| 3.35 | 1 | 1.28 |
| 1.91 | 1.5 | 1.83 |
| 1.48 | 2 | 2.55 |
