Odds overview
Manchester City to win is available at around 1.67, while the draw and Brighton & Hove Albion to win are quoted at 4.30 and 4.60. In the main totals market, Over 2.5 goals at 1.50 is considerably shorter than Under 2.5 goals at 2.50. Manchester City (-1.5) is offered at 2.60, while Brighton & Hove Albion (-1.5) is around 7.30.
Why Manchester City are favourites
Bookmakers consider Manchester City the favourites for this match: a home win is offered at odds of 1.67 (an estimated probability of 57.1% without the margin), the draw at 4.30 and a Brighton & Hove Albion win at 4.60.
• Manchester City are the reigning EFL Cup holders.
• Manchester City are unbeaten at home against Brighton & Hove Albion in their last 10 meetings in all competitions, winning eight of them.
• Manchester City have just one injured player, while Brighton & Hove Albion have almost 10.
Form and Line-up Manchester City
In the previous Premier League round, Manchester City lost 1:2 away to Aston Villa despite enjoying a clear territorial advantage during the match. That should give Enzo Maresca's players even more motivation to give their all in front of their supporters. The schedule means Manchester City and Brighton & Hove Albion will meet again at the Etihad Stadium on the third day after their cup match — this time in the Premier League. The coaching staff will clearly rest key players for Saturday's match.
- In 9 of Manchester City's last 10 home EFL Cup matches, their opponents took fewer than 4.5 corners.
- In 9 of Manchester City's last 10 home EFL Cup matches, the total number of fouls did not exceed 22.5.
- Each of Manchester City's last 10 home EFL Cup matches featured fewer than 4.5 yellow cards.
Probable Manchester City line-up (4-2-3-1): Gianluigi Donnarumma, Abdukodir Khusanov, Rúben Dias, Marc Guéhi, Joško Gvardiol, Elliot Anderson, Enzo Fernández, Iliman Ndiaye, Rayan Cherki, Jérémy Doku, Erling Haaland
Absentees: Antoine Semenyo (injured), Matheus Nunes (doubtful)
Form and Line-up Brighton & Hove Albion
Brighton & Hove Albion go into the cup tie following a 0:2 league defeat away to Liverpool, having conceded both goals in the first 21 minutes. It was the second successive match in all competitions in which Brighton failed to score. Fabian Hürzeler is also likely to rotate his squad ahead of another Premier League meeting with Manchester City.
- In 8 of Brighton & Hove Albion's last 10 away EFL Cup matches, the total number of fouls was below 22.5.
- Brighton & Hove Albion were caught offside fewer than 2.5 times in 9 of their last 10 away EFL Cup matches.
- In 8 of Brighton & Hove Albion's last 10 away EFL Cup matches, there were more than 7.5 shots on target.
Probable Brighton & Hove Albion line-up (4-3-3): Bart Verbruggen, Costinha, Luka Vušković, Lewis Dunk, Olivier Boskagli, Chema Andrés, Pascal Groß, Diego Gomez, Yasin Ayari, Maxim De Cuyper, Charalampos Kostoulas
Absentees: Evan Ferguson, Femi Azeez, Kaoru Mitoma, Stefanos Tzimas, Yankuba Minteh, Zadok Yohanna (injured); Ferdi Kadıoğlu, Pascal Struijk (doubtful)
Each team's chances
Manchester City to win at 1.67 corresponds to fair odds of 1.75 and a probability of 57.1%; the draw at 4.30 corresponds to 4.51 and 22.2%; Brighton & Hove Albion to win at 4.60 corresponds to 4.82 and 20.7%.
| Outcome | Average odds | Average fair odds | Probability without margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| Manchester City to win | 1.67 | 1.75 | 57.1% |
| Draw | 4.30 | 4.51 | 22.2% |
| Brighton & Hove Albion to win | 4.60 | 4.82 | 20.7% |
Total goals prediction
At a line of 2.5 goals, Over 2.5 at 1.50 is shorter than Under 2.5 at 2.50. At 3.5 goals, it is the other way round: Under 3.5 is available at 1.65 and Over 3.5 at 2.20.
| Line | Under | Over |
|---|---|---|
| 2.5 | 2.50 | 1.50 |
| 3.5 | 1.65 | 2.20 |
Handicap prediction
Manchester City (-1.5) are available at 2.60, compared with 7.30 for Brighton & Hove Albion (-1.5). At the 1.5 line, Manchester City (1.5) are offered at 1.05 and Brighton & Hove Albion (1.5) at 1.45; at the -1 line, the respective odds are 2.07 and 6.30. Manchester City (1) are quoted at 1.07 and Brighton & Hove Albion (1) at 1.75, while at the zero line, Manchester City (0) are 1.28 compared with 3.30 for Brighton & Hove Albion (0).
| Home | Handicap | Away |
|---|---|---|
| 2.60 | -1.5 | 7.30 |
| 1.05 | 1.5 | 1.45 |
| 2.07 | -1 | 6.30 |
| 1.07 | 1 | 1.75 |
| 1.28 | 0 | 3.30 |
Both teams to score prediction
Both teams to score — Yes is offered at 1.52, while Both teams to score — No, meaning at least one team will fail to score, is available at 2.45.
| Both teams to score | Odds |
|---|---|
| Yes | 1.52 |
| No | 2.45 |
Double chance forecast
| Bookmaker | 1X | 12 | X2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bet365 |
1/5
|
9/50
|
5/4
|
Odds are current as of the material publication date
Team total goals prediction
Bookmakers have set the following team goal totals for this match: Manchester City — 2 goals; Brighton & Hove Albion — 1 goal.
Manchester City team total goals
Manchester City's team goals: Under 0.5 is available at 6.60 and Over 0.5 at 1.06; at 1.5 goals, the respective odds are 2.40 and 1.55. At a line of 2 goals, Under 2 is offered at 1.80 and Over 2 at 1.95, while at 2.5 goals, Under 2.5 is quoted at 1.48 compared with 2.55 for Over 2.5.
| Under | Team total | Over |
|---|---|---|
| 6.60 | 0.5 | 1.06 |
| 2.40 | 1.5 | 1.55 |
| 1.80 | 2 | 1.95 |
| 1.48 | 2.5 | 2.55 |
Brighton & Hove Albion team total goals
Brighton & Hove Albion's team goals: Under 0.5 is offered at 2.90 and Over 0.5 at 1.35. At a line of 1 goal, Under 1 is available at 1.95 and Over 1 at 1.82; at 1.5 goals, Under 1.5 is quoted at 1.42 compared with 2.65 for Over 1.5.
| Under | Team total | Over |
|---|---|---|
| 2.90 | 0.5 | 1.35 |
| 1.95 | 1 | 1.82 |
| 1.42 | 1.5 | 2.65 |
Who Will Referee the Match
Andrew Madley (England)
Matches — 27 (Premier League and English cup competitions, 2025/26–2026/27);
Average fouls per match — 23;
Average yellow cards per match (including second yellows) — 3.2;
Matches with a red card — 4 of 27;
Matches with a penalty — 6 of 27.
