Odds overview
In the 1X2 market, Manchester United to win at 1.98 looks more likely than a draw at 3.80 or a Bournemouth win at 3.60. In the main totals market, Over 2.5 goals is available at 1.63, compared with 2.30 for Under 2.5 goals, suggesting an expectation of a high-scoring match. In the handicap market, Manchester United (0) at 1.50 and Bournemouth (0) at 2.60 show that the market has considerably more confidence in the hosts.
Why Manchester United are favourites
Bookmakers favour the hosts: Manchester United are offered at 1.98 to win, compared with 3.80 for a draw and 3.60 for a Bournemouth victory.
• Manchester United's entire squad is valued at 1.5 times that of Brighton & Hove Albion: €928 million versus €624 million.
• Manchester United won 6 of the previous 10 meetings at Old Trafford in all competitions, while Bournemouth won only two.
• Bournemouth did not record their first Premier League win of 2026/27 until the seventh round.
Form and Line-up Manchester United
Manchester United made a subdued start to the 2026/27 season: after seven Premier League rounds, Michael Carrick's side had 7 points, a 10:10 goal record and stood 13th in the table. A positive sign on the personnel front was the return of Matthijs de Ligt, who played for the first time in 11 months. The Dutchman played 79 minutes against Como.
- Manchester United took more than 4.5 corners in 8 of their last 10 Premier League home matches.
- Manchester United had more than 13.5 shots in 8 of their last 10 Premier League home matches.
- Manchester United's opponents received more than 1.5 yellow cards in 9 of their last 10 Premier League home matches.
Probable Manchester United line-up (4-2-3-1): Senne Lammens, Diogo Dalot, Harry Maguire, Matthijs de Ligt, Leny Yoro, Carlos Baleba, Andrey Santos, Bruno Fernandes, Youri Tielemans, Amad Diallo, Bryan Mbeumo
Unavailable: Manuel Ugarte, Benjamin Sesko, Patrick Dorgu, Luke Shaw, Kobbie Mainoo (injured); Ayden Heaven, Lisandro Martínez, Marcus Rashford (doubtful)
Form and Line-up Bournemouth
Bournemouth came into the round after a 2:0 home win over Sunderland, although that result owed much to a numerical advantage — their opponents had a player sent off as early as the 17th minute. The Cherries' next opponents, AC Milan, were also reduced to 10 men early on, losing their first-choice goalkeeper in the 27th minute, so the 3:0 home win was unsurprising. Manchester United therefore need to be careful against Bournemouth. Marco Rose's injury list is gradually shrinking, with only Alex Scott and Julián Araujo remaining on it. Whether Eli Junior Kroupi plays depends on another fitness test.
- Bournemouth committed more than 10.5 fouls in 8 of their last 10 Premier League away matches.
- Bournemouth's opponents were caught offside fewer than 2.5 times in 9 of their last 10 Premier League away matches.
- Bournemouth's opponents received fewer than 2.5 yellow cards in 9 of their last 10 Premier League away matches.
Probable Bournemouth line-up (4-2-3-1): Djordje Petrovic, Adam Smith, James Hill, António Silva, Adrien Truffert, Tyler Adams, Ryan, Ryan Christie, Lewis Cook, Marcus Tavernier, Evanilson
Unavailable: Alex Scott, Julián Araujo (injured); Eli Junior Kroupi (doubtful)
The teams' chances
Manchester United to win is offered at 1.98, with fair odds of 2.07 and a probability of 48.3%. The draw is quoted at 3.80, with fair odds of 3.97 and a probability of 25.2%; Bournemouth to win is available at 3.60, with fair odds of 3.77 and a probability of 26.6%. The hosts are favourites, but the chances of a draw and an away win are comparable.
| Result | Average odds | Average fair odds | Fair probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| Manchester United to win | 1.98 | 2.07 | 48.3% |
| Draw | 3.80 | 3.97 | 25.2% |
| Bournemouth to win | 3.60 | 3.77 | 26.6% |
Total goals prediction
At the 2.5-goal line, Over 2.5 goals at 1.63 is considerably more likely than Under 2.5 goals at 2.30. At the 3.5-goal line, Under 3.5 goals at 1.55 is favoured over Over 3.5 goals at 2.40.
| Line | Under | Over |
|---|---|---|
| 2.5 | 2.30 | 1.63 |
| 3.5 | 1.55 | 2.40 |
Handicap prediction
Manchester United (-1.5) are offered at 3.20, while Bournemouth (-1.5) are quoted at 6.20. Manchester United (+1.5) at 1.07 have shorter odds than Bournemouth (+1.5) at 1.30; at the -1 line, the respective odds are 2.65 and 5.50, and at the +1 line they are 1.10 and 1.45. Manchester United (0) at 1.50 have shorter odds than Bournemouth (0) at 2.60, confirming the hosts' advantage.
| Hosts | Handicap | Visitors |
|---|---|---|
| 3.20 | -1.5 | 6.20 |
| 1.07 | 1.5 | 1.30 |
| 2.65 | -1 | 5.50 |
| 1.10 | 1 | 1.45 |
| 1.50 | 0 | 2.60 |
Both teams to score prediction
Both teams to score – Yes at 1.55 looks more likely than Both teams to score – No at 2.40. The latter means that at least one team will not score.
| Both teams to score | Odds |
|---|---|
| Yes | 1.55 |
| No | 2.40 |
Double chance forecast
| Bookmaker | 1X | 12 | X2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bet365 |
33/100
|
29/100
|
67/100
|
| 888sport |
33/100
|
29/100
|
7/10
|
Odds are current as of the material publication date
Team total goals prediction
Bookmakers have set the following team goal totals for this match: Manchester United — 1.5 goals; Bournemouth — 1 goal.
Manchester United team total goals
For Manchester United's team total, Over 0.5 goals at 1.12 is considerably more likely than Under 0.5 goals at 5.10, while Over 1 goal at 1.25 is favoured over Under 1 goal at 3.50. At the 1.5-goal line, the odds are close: Over 1.5 goals at 1.80 and Under 1.5 goals at 1.95. At the 2-goal line, Under 2 goals at 1.50 is favoured over Over 2 goals at 2.50.
| Under | Team total | Over |
|---|---|---|
| 5.10 | 0.5 | 1.12 |
| 3.50 | 1 | 1.25 |
| 1.95 | 1.5 | 1.80 |
| 1.50 | 2 | 2.50 |
Bournemouth team total goals
For Bournemouth's team total, Over 0.5 goals at 1.30 is notably more likely than Under 0.5 goals at 3.20. At the 1-goal line, Over 1 goal at 1.65 has shorter odds than Under 1 goal at 2.17, while at the 1.5-goal line, Under 1.5 goals at 1.50 is favoured over Over 1.5 goals at 2.55.
| Under | Team total | Over |
|---|---|---|
| 3.20 | 0.5 | 1.30 |
| 2.17 | 1 | 1.65 |
| 1.50 | 1.5 | 2.55 |
Who Will Referee the Match
Jarred Gillett (Australia)
Matches – 27 (Premier League, 2025/26–2026/27);
Average fouls per match – 20;
Average yellow cards per match (including second yellows) – 3.8;
Matches with a red card – 1 of 27;
Matches with a penalty – 5 of 27.
