Odds overview
Ajax have a slight edge: an away win is available at around 2.40, compared with 2.75 for a home win, while the draw is quoted at 3.80. In the main goals market, Over 2.5 at 1.50 is considerably more likely than Under 2.5 at 2.50. In the main handicap market, Ajax (0) at 1.78 are favoured over Midtjylland (0) at 2.03.
Why Ajax are favourites
Fonbet make Ajax favourites: a win for the Dutch club is offered at 2.40, a Midtjylland win at 2.75 and the draw at 3.80.
- Ajax are above Midtjylland in the overall UEFA Conference League league-phase table — 13th compared with 25th.
- Ajax have won four matches in a row across all competitions.
- Midtjylland have struggled against this opponent: the Danish club lost both meetings with Ajax in the 2020–21 UEFA Champions League (1:2, 1:3).
Form and Line-up Midtjylland
Midtjylland come into the match after a win in the Danish league: that Sunday, they beat Nordsjælland 3:2 away from home, scoring the winner in the 95th minute. In their previous UEFA Conference League home match, Mike Tullberg's side suffered a surprise 0:1 defeat to Belgian club Sint-Truiden. The hosts hope to have midfielder Denil Castillo back after his recovery: he returned to the squad ahead of the match against Nordsjælland.
- Midtjylland have scored at least one goal in 9 of their last 10 competitive matches.
- Midtjylland's opponents have scored fewer than 2.5 goals in each of their last 10 competitive matches.
Probable Midtjylland line-up (3-1-4-2): Nordin Bakker, Ousmane Diao, Mads Bech Sørensen, Rasmus Kristensen, Pedro Bravo, Sofus Johannesen, Kjell Wätjen, Hong Hyun-seok, Victor Bak, Mileta Rajović, Julius Emefile
Absentees: David Martínez Morales (injury)
Form and Line-up Ajax
Ajax also won their latest Dutch league match, beating AZ Alkmaar, one of their rivals near the top of the table, 1:0 at home on 31 October. They are currently second in the Eredivisie. Their only away match in this UEFA Conference League league phase ended in a 1:2 defeat to Croatian club Hajduk Split.
- Ajax have scored at least one goal in each of their last 10 competitive matches.
- The teams have produced more than 5.5 shots on target between them in each of Ajax's last 10 competitive matches.
Probable Ajax line-up (4-2-3-1): Marc-Andre ter Stegen, Lucas Rosa, Aaron Bouwman, Youri Baas, Owen Wijndal, Jorthy Mokio, Sofyan Amrabat, Julian Brandt, Davy Klaassen, Tolu Arokodare, Abdellah Ouazane
Absentees: Anton Gaaei, Kasper Dolberg, Oliver Edvardsen, Simon Adingra (injuries)
The teams' chances
A Midtjylland win is offered at 2.75, with fair odds of 2.87 and a probability of 34.8%. The draw is available at 3.80, with fair odds of 3.97 and a probability of 25.2%. An Ajax win is quoted at 2.40, with fair odds of 2.50 and a probability of 39.9%.
| Outcome | Average odds | Average fair odds | Probability without margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| Midtjylland to win | 2.75 | 2.87 | 34.8% |
| Draw | 3.80 | 3.97 | 25.2% |
| Ajax to win | 2.40 | 2.50 | 39.9% |
Total goals prediction
At the 2.5-goal line, Under 2.5 is available at 2.50 and Over 2.5 at 1.50. At 3.5 goals, Under 3.5 is quoted at 1.67 and Over 3.5 at 2.20.
| Line | Under | Over |
|---|---|---|
| 2.5 | 2.50 | 1.50 |
| 3.5 | 1.67 | 2.20 |
Handicap prediction
For a -1.5 handicap, Midtjylland (-1.5) are offered at 4.70 and Ajax (-1.5) at 3.70. At the +1.5 line, the odds on Midtjylland (+1.5) and Ajax (+1.5) are 1.25 and 1.14 respectively. For a -1 handicap, Midtjylland (-1) are available at 4.20 and Ajax (-1) at 3.15; for a +1 handicap, the odds are 1.30 on Midtjylland (+1) and 1.20 on Ajax (+1). On the zero handicap line, Midtjylland (0) are offered at 2.03 and Ajax (0) at 1.78.
| Home | Handicap | Away |
|---|---|---|
| 4.70 | -1.5 | 3.70 |
| 1.25 | 1.5 | 1.14 |
| 4.20 | -1 | 3.15 |
| 1.30 | 1 | 1.20 |
| 2.03 | 0 | 1.78 |
Both teams to score prediction
Both teams to score — Yes is quoted at 1.45, while Both teams to score — No is offered at 2.65: the latter means at least one team will fail to score.
| Both teams to score | Odds |
|---|---|
| Yes | 1.45 |
| No | 2.65 |
Double chance forecast
| Bookmaker | 1X | 12 | X2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bet365 |
53/100
|
29/100
|
11/25
|
| William Hill |
57/100
|
29/100
|
2/5
|
| 888sport |
57/100
|
29/100
|
2/5
|
Odds are current as of the material publication date
Team total goals prediction
Bookmakers have set the following team goal totals for this match: Midtjylland — 1.5 goals; Ajax — 1.5 goals.
Midtjylland team total goals
For Midtjylland, Under 0.5 goals is available at 4.15 and Over 0.5 at 1.20. At the 1-goal line, the odds are 2.70 on Under 1 and 1.40 on Over 1; at 1.5 goals, they are 1.75 and 2.00 respectively. Under 2 is offered at 1.30 and Over 2 at 3.15.
| Under | Team total | Over |
|---|---|---|
| 4.15 | 0.5 | 1.20 |
| 2.70 | 1 | 1.40 |
| 1.75 | 1.5 | 2.00 |
| 1.30 | 2 | 3.15 |
Ajax team total goals
For Ajax, Under 0.5 goals is quoted at 4.40 and Over 0.5 at 1.15. At the 1-goal line, Under 1 is available at 3.05 and Over 1 at 1.33; at 1.5 goals, the odds are 1.90 and 1.85 respectively. Under 2 is offered at 1.42 and Over 2 at 2.65.
| Under | Team total | Over |
|---|---|---|
| 4.40 | 0.5 | 1.15 |
| 3.05 | 1 | 1.33 |
| 1.90 | 1.5 | 1.85 |
| 1.42 | 2 | 2.65 |
