Why Midtjylland Are Favourites for the Match
The odds differ by almost a factor of two: 1.90 on a home win against 3.78 on an away win. But the favourites for the match and the favourites for the tie are not the same thing. Besiktas are ahead on aggregate and only need to avoid defeat, so the X2 double chance is priced at the same 1.90.
Home advantage. The MCH Arena is the main resource that can help the Danes restore their usual tempo: the team play wide, deliver plenty of crosses and seize the initiative more confidently at home.
Match rhythm. The Danish league has already started, and Midtjylland opened it with a win. Before the UEFA Europa League, Besiktas had played only friendlies.
European experience. Last season, the Danes qualified directly for the UEFA Europa League Round of 16 and lost to Nottingham Forest only in a penalty shootout.
Equal numbers. In Istanbul, Midtjylland played with ten men from the 15th minute and still lost by only one goal. At home, eleven against eleven, the Danes will be able to keep their usual structure for longer.
Attacking depth. Franculino Dju, Cho Gue-sung, Dario Osorio and Julius Emefile give Mike Tullberg several options for reshaping the attack. The hosts can start with two forwards and then add pace from the bench.
Form and Line-up Midtjylland
The Danes finished last season second in the Superliga and won the Danish Cup, beating Copenhagen in the final (1:0). Their preparation was convincing: wins over Lillestrom (1:0), Silkeborg (4:2), Odense (4:1) and a heavy away victory over Cardiff (6:0), plus a draw with Malmo (2:2). The competitive start has been mixed — defeat in Istanbul (0:1) and a win in the opening league round in Haderslev (3:2).
The game against Sonderjyske highlighted both strengths and weaknesses. Mads Bech Sorensen headed in from Valdemar Byskov's corner, Byskov added the second goal, and Julius Emefile came off the bench to score the winner. At the same time, both opposition goals came from crosses and headers. But that problem should not be transferred to the first meeting with Besiktas: even with ten men, the Danes won the overall duels count 54:37.
The style remains the same: high pressing, wide play, lots of crosses and an emphasis on set pieces. In the summer, the club are continuing to work for the future — defender Tamsir Danso will join the team from KFUM Oslo around the turn of the year, but the transfer has no bearing on this match.
Key numbers for Midtjylland:
In five friendlies, the team recorded four wins and one draw, scoring 17 goals.
Third place in the league phase of the 2025/26 UEFA Europa League: six wins, one draw and one defeat.
In the first match against Besiktas, the Danes played with a man down from the 15th minute but won the duels count 54:37.
Probable line-up (3-5-2): Elias Rafn Olafsson — Rasmus Kristensen, Martin Erlic, Mads Bech Sorensen — Dario Osorio, Philip Billing, Pedro Bravo, Valdemar Byskov, Beni Junior — Franculino, Cho Gue-sung.
Absentees: Friday Etim (suspension), Ousmane Diao, Mikel Gogorza, Junior Brumado (all injured), Victor Bak (doubtful).
Form and Line-up Besiktas
The Turks finished last season fourth in the league, 17 points behind the champions and nine ahead of seventh place. In the summer, the club changed coach — Vincenzo Italiano took charge of the team. The transfer window was high-profile: goalkeeper Alexander Nubel, midfielder Salih Ozcan and forward Leandro Trossard arrived.
Their training camp was uneven: only two wins in six friendlies, with defeats to Widzew (0:2) and Spartak Trnava (2:3). Italiano won his first competitive match, but the opponent's early red card made the task much easier: after the 15th minute, Besiktas gained a big advantage in possession and shots, and Orkun Kokcu scored the only goal in the 26th minute. The Turkish league has not started yet, so the team's entire workload is currently focused on this tie.
The strength is the ability to calmly hand the initiative to the hosts and attack the spaces that open up through Orkun Kokcu's first pass and the speed on the flanks. The weakness is a lack of cohesion after a large number of newcomers and a shortage of competitive practice.
Key numbers for Besiktas:
In six friendlies, the team recorded two wins; they conceded more than one goal only in the two defeats.
In the first meeting, the Turks had 74% possession, won the shot count 28:5 and shots on target 7:1.
If Besiktas score in Herning, Midtjylland will need three goals to go through inside 90 minutes.
Probable line-up (4-1-4-1): Alexander Nubel — Ridvan Yilmaz, Tiago Djalo, Emirhan Topcu, Michael Murillo — Salih Ozcan — Vaclav Cerny, Junior Olaitan, Orkun Kokcu, Ilhan Fakili — Hyeon-gyu Oh.
Absentees: Wilfred Ndidi (injury); Felix Uduokhai (suspension); Leandro Trossard (leave after the 2026 World Cup).
