Odds overview
Midtjylland are clear favourites: a home win is offered at 1.63, compared with 4.20 for a draw and 5.00 for an away win. In the main totals market, Over 2.5 goals at 1.55 is considerably shorter than Under 2.5 goals at 2.35. For the handicaps, Midtjylland (-1.5) are at 2.55 and Sint-Truiden (-1.5) at 8.00.
Why Midtjylland are favourites
The bookmakers favour the hosts: Midtjylland are 1.63 to win, a draw is available at 4.20 and a Sint-Truiden win at 5.00.
- The Danish club regularly outshoot their opponents in the UEFA Conference League: Midtjylland have had more shots in 9 of their last 10 matches in the competition.
- The Belgian side have been inconsistent away from home: Sint-Truiden lost 3:4 to KV Mechelen in a recent away league match.
Form and Line-up Midtjylland
Midtjylland consistently create attacking chances and have scored at least once in each of their last 10 matches across all competitions. They have also avoided being outshot in each of their last 10 UEFA Conference League matches. A significant boost to the squad is the return of defender Ousmane Diao, who has already played in a friendly against Fredericia.
- Midtjylland have won at least five corners in 8 of their last 10 UEFA Conference League matches.
- Midtjylland have matched or exceeded their opponents' corner count in 9 of their last 10 UEFA Conference League matches.
- Midtjylland's opponents have registered fewer than 4.5 shots on target in 8 of the club's last 10 UEFA Conference League matches.
Probable line-up (4-4-2): Nordin Bakker, Ousmane Diao, Andreas Maxsø, Mads Bech, Rasmus Nissen Kristensen, Philip Billing, Pedro Bravo, Kjell Wätjen, Denil Castillo, Stanley Iheanacho, Friday Etim.
Form and Line-up Sint-Truiden
The Belgian side come into the match after a 4:1 win over Lommel in the Belgian Cup. Sint-Truiden have been disciplined away from home across all competitions: their players have been caught offside fewer than 2.5 times in 9 of their last 10 away matches, while the combined foul count has stayed below 23.5 in 8 of those 10 games.
- Sint-Truiden's opponents have received fewer than 2.5 yellow cards in 8 of the club's last 10 away matches across all competitions.
- Sint-Truiden have conceded fewer than 5.5 corners in 9 of their last 10 home matches across all competitions.
- Sint-Truiden's opponents have committed fewer than 11.5 fouls in 9 of the club's last 10 home matches across all competitions.
Probable line-up (4-3-3): Mathias Lenders, Robert-Jan Vanwesemael, Kota Takai, Visar Musliu, Taiga Hata, Naoki Ishiwatari, Abdoulaye Sissako, Nathanaël Mbuku, Shunsuke Shinkawa, Kaito Matsuzawa, Frédéric Soèllé.
Teams' chances
The margin-free estimate gives Midtjylland a 58.3% chance of winning, with average odds of 1.63 and fair odds of 1.71. The draw is rated at 22.6%, with average odds of 4.20 against fair odds of 4.42. A Sint-Truiden win has a 19% probability, with average odds of 5.00 and fair odds of 5.26.
| Outcome | Average odds | Average fair odds | Margin-free probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| Midtjylland win | 1.63 | 1.71 | 58.3% |
| Draw | 4.20 | 4.42 | 22.6% |
| Sint-Truiden win | 5.00 | 5.26 | 19.0% |
Total goals betting
At the 2.5-goal line, Over 2.5 goals at 1.55 is considerably shorter than Under 2.5 goals at 2.35. At 3.5 goals, the relationship reverses: Under 3.5 goals is 1.60 and Over 3.5 goals is 2.35.
| Line | Under | Over |
|---|---|---|
| 2.5 | 2.35 | 1.55 |
| 3.5 | 1.60 | 2.35 |
Handicap betting
Midtjylland (-1.5) are available at 2.55, while Sint-Truiden (-1.5) are at 8.00. Midtjylland (+1.5) are offered at 1.04, compared with 1.47 for Sint-Truiden (+1.5). Midtjylland (-1) are at 2.02 and Sint-Truiden (-1) at 6.90; for the +1 line, the odds are 1.06 on Midtjylland (+1) and 1.78 on Sint-Truiden (+1). At a zero handicap, Midtjylland (0) are 1.25 and Sint-Truiden (0) are 3.55.
| Home | Handicap | Away |
|---|---|---|
| 2.55 | -1.5 | 8.00 |
| 1.04 | 1.5 | 1.47 |
| 2.02 | -1 | 6.90 |
| 1.06 | 1 | 1.78 |
| 1.25 | 0 | 3.55 |
Both teams to score betting
Both teams to score — Yes is offered at 1.60 and is shorter than Both teams to score — No at 2.30, which covers a match in which at least one team fails to score.
| Both teams to score | Odds |
|---|---|
| Yes | 1.60 |
| No | 2.30 |
Double chance forecast
| Bookmaker | 1X | 12 | X2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bet365 |
17/100
|
11/50
|
5/4
|
| William Hill |
17/100
|
1/4
|
6/5
|
| 888sport |
17/100
|
1/4
|
6/5
|
Odds are current as of the material publication date
Team total goals betting
The bookmakers have set the following team goal lines for this match: 2 goals for Midtjylland and 1 goal for Sint-Truiden.
Midtjylland team total goals
For Midtjylland's team total, Under 0.5 goals is 6.20 and Over 0.5 goals is 1.07. At the 1.5-goal line, Under 1.5 goals is 2.30 and Over 1.5 goals is 1.58; at the 2-goal line, they are 1.75 and 2.00 respectively. At 2.5 goals, Under 2.5 is 1.45 and Over 2.5 is 2.60.
| Under | Team total | Over |
|---|---|---|
| 6.20 | 0.5 | 1.07 |
| 2.30 | 1.5 | 1.58 |
| 1.75 | 2 | 2.00 |
| 1.45 | 2.5 | 2.60 |
Sint-Truiden team total goals
For Sint-Truiden's team total, Under 0.5 goals is 2.65 and Over 0.5 goals is 1.42. At the 1-goal line, Under 1 is offered at 1.75 against 2.02 for Over 1; at 1.5 goals, Under 1.5 is 1.35 and Over 1.5 is 2.95.
| Under | Team total | Over |
|---|---|---|
| 2.65 | 0.5 | 1.42 |
| 1.75 | 1 | 2.02 |
| 1.35 | 1.5 | 2.95 |
Who Will Referee the Match
Juxhin Xhaja (Albania)
Matches — 10 (international fixtures, 2025/26–2026/27);
Average fouls per match — 22;
Average yellow cards per match (including second yellows) — 4.9;
Matches with a red card — 1 in 10;
Matches with a penalty — 4 in 10.
