Odds Overview
Milan are clear favourites: a home win is available at 1.37, compared with 4.70 for the draw and 9.00 for an away win. In the main total market, Over 2.5 goals is quoted slightly shorter than Under 2.5 goals — 1.85 versus 1.95. In the handicap markets, Venezia (+1.5) at 1.75 looks more appealing than Milan (-1.5) at 2.07.
Why Milan Are Favourites
Bookmakers give the home side a clear edge: Milan to win is available at 1.37 (around a 69.3% probability without margin), the draw is 4.70 and Venezia to win is 9.00.
- Milan began the league campaign with a 2:1 away win over Torino and, with 3 points after Matchday 1, sit sixth in the Serie A table.
- Venezia lost 0:2 at home to Lecce in the opening round and have failed to win on goals in 10 consecutive away Serie A matches.
Form and Line-up Milan
The team are playing their first competitive matches under Ruben Amorim, who immediately handed new signing Goncalo Ramos a starting place but warned that building the style of play would take time. It was a solid debut: two goals in three minutes in the second half secured three points in Turin.
At home, Milan limit their opponents: in 8 of their last 10 home Serie A matches, they have faced fewer than 12.5 shots, while Milan themselves committed 12 fouls or fewer in 9 of 10 matches at the San Siro.
Key numbers:
In 8 of their last 10 home Serie A matches, Milan scored no more than 1 goal.
No more than 3 goals were recorded in 8 of their last 10 home matches.
The team generated only 1.74 xG against Torino.
Probable Milan line-up (3-4-2-1): Mike Maignan — Mario Gila, Koni De Winter, Strahinja Pavlovic — Samuel Chukwueze, Ardon Jashari, Adrien Rabiot, Pervis Estupinan — Ruben Loftus-Cheek, Alphadjo Cisse — Goncalo Ramos.
Absentees: Rafael Leao did not feature in the previous match.
Form and Line-up Venezia
Giovanni Stroppa's side returned to Serie A after winning Serie B, but their start was disappointing: a 0:2 defeat to Lecce despite a clear advantage in chances created. The opposition scored through Gorter and Tiago Gabriel in the second half.
In the summer, the club signed forward Akor Adams, who immediately started. Their attack struggles away from home: Venezia registered fewer than 13.5 shots in each of their last 10 away Serie A matches.
Key numbers:
In their opening-round match, Venezia outperformed their opponents on xG — 3.19 versus 2.45.
One goal or fewer in 8 of their last 10 away Serie A matches.
In 9 of 10 away matches, their opponents registered at least 4 shots on target.
Probable Venezia line-up (3-5-2): Filip Stankovic — Joel Schingtienne, Armel Bella Kotchap, Bartol Franjic — Antoine Hainaut, Kike Perez, Gianluca Busio, Toma Basic, Thierry Rendall Correia — John Yeboah, Akor Adams.
Team Chances
A home win is quoted at 1.37, while the fair odds are 1.44 with a probability of 69.3%. The draw is listed at 4.70 and 4.95 with 20.2%; an away win at 9.00 and 9.48 with 10.5%.
Outcome | Average odds | Average fair odds | Probability without margin |
Milan to win | 1.37 | 1.44 | 69.3% |
Draw | 4.70 | 4.95 | 20.2% |
Venezia to win | 9.00 | 9.48 | 10.5% |
Total Goals Prediction
For the 2.5 line, Under 2.5 goals is 1.95 and Over 2.5 goals is 1.85, with a slight edge for the higher-total option. For the 3.5 line, Under 3.5 goals at 1.35 is significantly more likely than Over 3.5 goals at 2.90.
Line | Under | Over |
2.5 | 1.95 | 1.85 |
3.5 | 1.35 | 2.90 |
Handicap Prediction
Milan (-1.5) is quoted at 2.07 and Venezia (+1.5) at 1.75. On the 1-goal line, Milan (-1) is 1.57, while Venezia (+1) is 2.35. For the Draw No Bet market, Milan is 1.08 and Venezia is 5.90.
Home | Handicap | Away |
2.07 | -1.5 | — |
— | 1.5 | 1.75 |
1.57 | -1 | — |
— | 1 | 2.35 |
1.08 | 0 | 5.90 |
Both Teams to Score Prediction
Both Teams to Score - No at 1.63 is quoted shorter than Both Teams to Score - Yes at 2.20, so the market more often expects at least one side not to score.
Both Teams to Score | Odds |
Yes | 2.20 |
No | 1.63 |
Double Chance Prediction
1X is available at 1.08, 12 at 1.20 and X2 at 3.10. The most expensive option remains the outcome in which Milan do not win.
1X | 12 | X2 |
1.08 | 1.20 | 3.10 |
Team Total Goals Prediction
Bookmakers have set the following team totals for this match: Milan — 2 goals, Venezia — 0.5 goals.
Milan Team Total
Milan: Under 0.5 goals is 6.80 and Over 0.5 goals is 1.06; for the 1.5 line, the odds are 2.35 for Under and 1.55 for Over. For the 2-goal line, the odds are 1.80 for Under and 1.95 for Over, while for 2.5 they are 1.47 for Under and 2.60 for Over.
Under | Team total | Over |
6.80 | 0.5 | 1.06 |
2.35 | 1.5 | 1.55 |
1.80 | 2 | 1.95 |
1.47 | 2.5 | 2.60 |
Venezia Team Total
Venezia: Under 0.5 goals is quoted at 1.75 and Over 0.5 goals at 2.00. On the 1-goal line, Under is 1.20 versus 3.90 for Over, while on the 1.5 line, Under is 1.11 and Over is 5.20.
Under | Team total | Over |
1.75 | 0.5 | 2.00 |
1.20 | 1 | 3.90 |
1.11 | 1.5 | 5.20 |
Who Will Referee the Match
Gianluca Manganiello (Italy)
Matches — 10 (Serie A, 2025/26);
Average fouls per match — 24;
Average yellow cards per match (including second yellows) — 3.1;
Matches with red cards — 0 out of 10;
Matches with penalties — 1 out of 10.
