Odds overview
In the 1X2 market, Moldova to win are slight favourites at 2.65, while Kazakhstan to win are available at 2.80 and the draw at 2.95. In the main 2.5-goal totals market, Under is shorter than Over: 1.50 against 2.43. Moldova Draw No Bet (0) are offered at 1.81 and Kazakhstan Draw No Bet (0) at 1.93, also giving the hosts a slight edge.
Why Moldova are favourites
Bookmakers make Moldova slight favourites. A home win is available at 2.65, a Kazakhstan win at 2.80 and a draw at 2.95.
- Moldova have already beaten Kazakhstan in this edition of the competition: they won their head-to-head match 2:1 on 2 October 2026.
- Kazakhstan have struggled to win in the competition: they have failed to win any of their last 10 UEFA Nations League matches.
Form and Line-up Moldova
In their previous match in the competition, Moldova lost heavily to Slovakia 0:4 on 6 October 2026. They had drawn 1:1 with the Faroe Islands on 29 September.
Moldova's coaching staff have called up Zimbru Chisinau forward Alexandru Bețivu for the upcoming matches for the first time.
- Moldova have failed to win 9 of their last 10 matches in all official competitions.
- Under 3.5 goals has landed in 9 of Moldova's last 10 UEFA Nations League matches.
Probable Moldova line-up (4-2-3-1): Dumitru Celeadnic, Oleg Reabciuk, Vladislav Baboglo, Mihail Gherasimencov, John Calin Revenko, Iurie Iovu, Vadim Rață, Vladimir Fratea, Sergiu Perciun, Nicky Clescenco, Petru Popescu
Form and Line-up Kazakhstan
Kazakhstan drew 2:2 with the Faroe Islands on 6 October 2026. Before that, they lost 1:2 away to Slovakia on 29 September.
- Kazakhstan have avoided defeat in 7 of their last 10 matches in all official competitions.
- Over 1.5 goals has landed in 9 of Kazakhstan's last 10 matches in all official competitions.
Probable Kazakhstan line-up (3-4-2-1): Temirlan Anarbekov, Alibek Kasym, Nuraly Alip, Yan Vorogovskiy, Nauryzbek Zhagorov, Islambek Kuat, Georgiy Zhukov, Stanislav Basmanov, Maksim Samorodov, Bauyrzhan Islamkhan, Artur Shushenachev
The teams' chances
The margin-free assessment gives Moldova a 35.2% chance of winning: the average odds on a home win are 2.65, with fair odds of 2.84. The draw is rated at 31.6%, with average odds of 2.95 and fair odds of 3.17. Kazakhstan have a 33.3% chance of winning: their average odds are 2.80 and their fair odds are 3.01.
| Outcome | Average odds | Average fair odds | Margin-free probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moldova to win | 2.65 | 2.84 | 35.2% |
| Draw | 2.95 | 3.17 | 31.6% |
| Kazakhstan to win | 2.80 | 3.01 | 33.3% |
Total goals prediction
At the 2.5-goal line, Under is available at 1.50 and Over at 2.43. At the 2-goal line, the odds are nearly equal, although Over at 1.83 is slightly shorter than Under at 1.91. For the 3.5-goal line, Under is quoted at 1.16 and Over at 4.40.
| Line | Under | Over |
|---|---|---|
| 2.5 | 1.50 | 2.43 |
| 2 | 1.91 | 1.83 |
| 3.5 | 1.16 | 4.40 |
Handicap prediction
In the handicap (0) market, Moldova Draw No Bet (0) are offered at 1.81 and Kazakhstan Draw No Bet (0) at 1.93: the odds are slightly shorter for the hosts.
| Hosts | Handicap | Visitors |
|---|---|---|
| 1.81 | 0 | 1.93 |
Double chance forecast
| Bookmaker | 1X | 12 | X2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bet365 |
2/5
|
9/25
|
1/2
|
| William Hill |
2/5
|
9/25
|
11/25
|
| LeoVegas |
21/50
|
2/5
|
47/100
|
Odds are current as of the material publication date
Team goals prediction
The team goals markets for Moldova and Kazakhstan suggest that each side scoring at least once is the more likely outcome.
Moldova team goals
For Moldova, Under 0.5 goals is available at 2.73 and Over 0.5 at 1.40. At the 1-goal team total, there are two sets of odds: Under 1 at 1.82 and Over 1 at 1.92, as well as Under 1 at 1.75 and Over 1 at 2.00.
| Under | Team goals line | Over |
|---|---|---|
| 2.73 | 0.5 | 1.40 |
| 1.82 | 1 | 1.92 |
| 1.75 | 1 | 2.00 |
Kazakhstan team goals
For Kazakhstan, Under 0.5 goals is quoted at 2.60 and Over 0.5 at 1.44. At the 1.5-goal line, Under is available at 1.33 and Over at 3.05; at the 2.5-goal line, Under is offered at 1.06 and Over at 6.50.
| Under | Team goals line | Over |
|---|---|---|
| 2.60 | 0.5 | 1.44 |
| 1.33 | 1.5 | 3.05 |
| 1.06 | 2.5 | 6.50 |
Who Will Referee the Match
Andrea Colombo (Italy)
Matches – 6 (international matches, 2026/27);
Average fouls per match – 21;
Average yellow cards per match (including second yellow cards) – 3.1;
Matches with a red card – 1 out of 6;
Matches with a penalty – 1 out of 6.
