Moldova vs Slovakia: prediction & betting odds 6 October 2026

Odds overview

Slovakia are clear favourites at 1.42 to win, while the draw is around 4.70 and a Moldova win is 7.70. In the main totals market, Over 2.5 goals at 1.75 is shorter than Under 2.5 goals at 2.10. For the 1.5-goal handicap, Moldova (+1.5) are shorter at 1.67 than Slovakia (-1.5) at 2.20.

Why Slovakia are favourites

The bookmakers offer odds of 7.70 for a Moldova win, 4.70 for a draw and 1.42 for a Slovakia win.

• Slovakia beat their opponents in the first meeting of this campaign, winning 2:0 at home.
• Moldova ended a two-year, 17-match winless run only in the previous round, but one away win over Kazakhstan does not yet change the team's modest standing.
• The visitors defend their goal reliably: Slovakia's opponents create an average of just 0.49 xG per match, one of the three lowest figures in the UEFA Nations League.

Form and Line-up Moldova

In recent UEFA Nations League rounds, Moldova drew 1:1 with the Faroe Islands, relying on cautious, disciplined football. The hosts avoid taking risks near their own goal: their matches produce just 1.33 offsides per game, and no more than three goals were scored in eight of their last 10 home matches in the competition.

• Moldova received fewer than 2.5 yellow cards in nine of their last 10 UEFA Nations League home matches.
• More than 23.5 fouls were recorded in eight of Moldova's last 10 UEFA Nations League home matches.
• Under 9.5 shots on target landed in nine of Moldova's last 10 UEFA Nations League matches.

Probable Moldova line-up (5-3-2): Dumitru Celeadnic, Oleg Reabciuk, Vladislav Baboglo, Mihail Gherasimencov, John Calin Revenko, Iurie Iovu, Sergiu Perciun, Vladimir Fratea, Vadim Raţă, Petru Popescu, Nicky Clescenco.

Form and Line-up Slovakia

Slovakia remain top of the group after beating Kazakhstan 2:1 and drawing 1:1 with the Faroe Islands. Head coach Vladimir Weiss explicitly pointed to the players' physical fatigue after an away trip on an artificial pitch, which could limit the team's intensity.

Slovakia also regularly build attacks down the flanks, taking more than 3.5 corners in nine of their last 10 UEFA Nations League away matches.

• Slovakia scored fewer than 1.5 goals in nine of their last 10 UEFA Nations League away matches.
• More than 7.5 corners were taken in nine of Slovakia's last 10 UEFA Nations League away matches.
• Under 9.5 shots on target was recorded in eight of Slovakia's last 10 UEFA Nations League away matches.

Probable Slovakia line-up (4-3-3): Dominik Greif, Denis Vavro, Milan Škriniar, Ivan Mesik, Martin Valjent, Stanislav Lobotka, Tomáš Rigo, Tomáš Suslov, Leo Sauer, Dávid Ďuriš, Róbert Boženík.

The teams' chances

Without the bookmaker's margin, a Moldova win has a 12.4% probability, with odds of 7.70 and fair odds of 8.06; the draw is at 20.3%, with odds of 4.70 and fair odds of 4.92. A Slovakia win is rated at 67.3%, with odds of 1.42 and fair odds of 1.49.

Total goals prediction

At the 2.5-goal line, Over 2.5 goals at 1.75 is shorter than Under 2.5 goals at 2.10. At the 3.5-goal line, by contrast, Under 3.5 goals is much shorter at 1.42, compared with 2.65 for Over 3.5 goals.

Handicap prediction

Slovakia (-1.5) are offered at 2.20, while Moldova (+1.5) are 1.67. At the one-goal handicap line, Slovakia (-1) are 1.65 and Moldova (+1) are 2.18. With a zero handicap, Slovakia (0) at 1.11 are much shorter than Moldova (0) at 5.10.

Both teams to score prediction

The market is close, but Both teams to score – No at 1.82 is shorter than Both teams to score – Yes at 1.93: it is slightly more likely that at least one team will fail to score.

Double chance forecast

Bookmaker	1X	12	X2
Bet365	7/4	17/100	2/25
William Hill	3/2	11/50	3/25
888sport	9/5	1/5	2/25

Odds are current as of the material publication date

Team goals prediction

For this match, bookmakers have set the following team goal lines: Moldova at 0.5 goals and Slovakia at 2 goals.

Moldova team goals

For Moldova's team goals, Over 0.5 is 1.75 compared with 2.00 for Under 0.5. At the one-goal line, Under 1 is shorter at 1.35, while Over 1 is offered at 2.95; at the 1.5-goal line, Under 1.5 is 1.18 compared with 4.10 for Over 1.5.

Slovakia team goals

For Slovakia's team goals, Over 0.5 at 1.05 is much shorter than Under 0.5 at 7.20. At the 1.5-goal line, Over 1.5 is 1.53 compared with 2.40 for Under 1.5; at the two-goal line, the odds are close — Under 2 at 1.80 and Over 2 at 1.95. At the 2.5-goal line, Under 2.5 is favoured at 1.45, while Over 2.5 is 2.60.

Who Will Referee the Match

Yigal Frid (Israel)

Matches – 7 (international matches, 2025/26–2026/27);

Average fouls per match – 24;

Average yellow cards per match (including second yellows) – 3.6;

Matches with a red card – 1 of 7;

Matches with a penalty – 1 of 7.