Odds overview
Slovakia are clear favourites: a Slovakia win is available at 1.42, while a draw is around 4.70 and a Moldova win is 7.70. In the main totals market, Over 2.5 goals at 1.75 is shorter than Under 2.5 goals at 2.10. At the 1.5-goal handicap, Moldova (+1.5) are shorter at 1.67 than Slovakia (-1.5) at 2.20.
Why Slovakia are favourites
The bookmakers offer odds of 7.70 for a Moldova win, 4.70 for a draw and 1.42 for a Slovakia win.
- Slovakia got the better of their opponents in the first head-to-head meeting of this campaign, winning 2:0 at home.
- Moldova only ended a two-year, 17-match winless run in the previous round, but one away win against Kazakhstan does not yet change the side's modest standing.
- The visitors defend their goal reliably: Slovakia's opponents create an average of just 0.49 xG per game, one of the three best records in the UEFA Nations League.
Form and Line-up Moldova
In recent UEFA Nations League rounds, Moldova drew 1:1 with the Faroe Islands, relying on cautious, disciplined football. The hosts avoid risks near their own goal: their matches produce just 1.33 offsides per game, and no more than three goals were scored in eight of their last 10 home matches in the competition.
- Moldova received fewer than 2.5 yellow cards in nine of their last 10 home UEFA Nations League matches.
- More than 23.5 fouls were recorded in eight of Moldova's last 10 home UEFA Nations League matches.
- Under 9.5 shots on target landed in nine of Moldova's last 10 UEFA Nations League matches.
Probable Moldova line-up (5-3-2): Dumitru Celeadnic, Oleg Reabciuk, Vladislav Baboglo, Mihail Gherasimencov, John Calin Revenko, Iurie Iovu, Sergiu Perciun, Vladimir Fratea, Vadim Raţă, Petru Popescu, Nicky Clescenco.
Form and Line-up Slovakia
Slovakia remain top of the group after beating Kazakhstan 2:1 and drawing 1:1 with the Faroe Islands. Head coach Vladimir Weiss explicitly pointed to the players' physical fatigue after an away match on an artificial pitch, which could limit the team's intensity.
Slovakia regularly attack down the flanks, however, and have taken more than 3.5 corners in nine of their last 10 away UEFA Nations League matches.
- Slovakia scored fewer than 1.5 goals in nine of their last 10 away UEFA Nations League matches.
- More than 7.5 corners were taken in nine of Slovakia's last 10 away UEFA Nations League matches.
- Under 9.5 shots on target was recorded in eight of Slovakia's last 10 away UEFA Nations League matches.
Probable Slovakia line-up (4-3-3): Dominik Greif, Denis Vavro, Milan Škriniar, Ivan Mesik, Martin Valjent, Stanislav Lobotka, Tomáš Rigo, Tomáš Suslov, Leo Sauer, Dávid Ďuriš, Róbert Boženík.
The teams' chances
Based on fair odds, a Moldova win has a 12.4% probability, with bookmaker odds of 7.70 and fair odds of 8.06. A draw has a 20.3% probability, with odds of 4.70 and fair odds of 4.92. A Slovakia win is rated at 67.3%, with bookmaker odds of 1.42 and fair odds of 1.49.
| Outcome | Average odds | Average fair odds | Fair probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moldova win | 7.70 | 8.06 | 12.4% |
| Draw | 4.70 | 4.92 | 20.3% |
| Slovakia win | 1.42 | 1.49 | 67.3% |
Total goals betting analysis
At the 2.5-goal line, Over 2.5 goals at 1.75 is shorter than Under 2.5 goals at 2.10. At the 3.5-goal line, by contrast, Under 3.5 goals is considerably shorter at 1.42 than Over 3.5 goals at 2.65.
| Line | Under | Over |
|---|---|---|
| 2.5 | 2.10 | 1.75 |
| 3.5 | 1.42 | 2.65 |
Handicap betting analysis
Slovakia (-1.5) are available at 2.20, while Moldova (+1.5) are 1.67. At the 1-goal handicap, Slovakia (-1) are 1.65 and Moldova (+1) are 2.18. With a zero handicap, Slovakia (0) at 1.11 are considerably shorter than Moldova (0) at 5.10.
| Home | Handicap | Away |
|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 2.20 | |
| 1.67 | 1.5 | |
| -1 | 1.65 | |
| 2.18 | 1 | |
| 5.10 | 0 | 1.11 |
Both teams to score betting analysis
The market is close, but Both teams to score — No at 1.82 is shorter than Both teams to score — Yes at 1.93: it is slightly more likely that at least one team will fail to score.
| Both teams to score | Odds |
|---|---|
| Yes | 1.93 |
| No | 1.82 |
Double chance forecast
| Bookmaker | 1X | 12 | X2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bet365 |
7/4
|
17/100
|
2/25
|
| William Hill |
3/2
|
11/50
|
3/25
|
| 888sport |
7/4
|
1/5
|
1/10
|
Odds are current as of the material publication date
Team total goals betting analysis
For this match, bookmakers have set the following team goal totals: Moldova — 0.5 goals; Slovakia — 2 goals.
Moldova team total goals
Moldova team total: Over 0.5 goals is available at 1.75, against 2.00 for Under 0.5 goals. At the 1-goal line, Under 1 goal is shorter at 1.35, while Over 1 goal is offered at 2.95; at the 1.5-goal line, Under 1.5 goals is 1.18 against 4.10 for Over 1.5 goals.
| Under | Team total | Over |
|---|---|---|
| 2.00 | 0.5 | 1.75 |
| 1.35 | 1 | 2.95 |
| 1.18 | 1.5 | 4.10 |
Slovakia team total goals
Slovakia team total: Over 0.5 goals at 1.05 is considerably shorter than Under 0.5 goals at 7.20. At the 1.5-goal line, Over 1.5 goals is 1.53 against 2.40 for Under 1.5 goals; at the 2-goal line, the odds are close — Under 2 goals at 1.80 and Over 2 goals at 1.95. At the 2.5-goal line, Under 2.5 goals is favoured at 1.45, while Over 2.5 goals is 2.60.
| Under | Team total | Over |
|---|---|---|
| 7.20 | 0.5 | 1.05 |
| 2.40 | 1.5 | 1.53 |
| 1.80 | 2 | 1.95 |
| 1.45 | 2.5 | 2.60 |
