Odds overview
Monaco are favourites: a Monaco win is available at 2.25, compared with 3.05 for a Freiburg win and 3.65 for the draw. In the main totals market, Over 2.5 goals at 1.73 looks more likely than Under 2.5 goals at 2.10. For the handicap (0) market, Monaco (0) have shorter odds at 1.65 than Freiburg (0) at 2.20.
Why Monaco are favourites
The bookmakers favour the hosts: Monaco are quoted at 2.25 to win, the draw at 3.65 and a Freiburg win at 3.05.
- Monaco have lost just 1 of their last 10 matches in all competitions, maintaining a highly consistent record.
- Freiburg come into the match after their first defeat of the season, losing 1:2 to Bayer Leverkusen.
Form and Line-up Monaco
In their most recent Ligue 1 match, Monaco lost 0:1 to Lorient, conceding the only goal from a second-half penalty. Monaco are much more assured at home: they have avoided defeat in 9 of their last 10 home matches in all competitions.
- Monaco took fewer than 5.5 corners in 8 of their last 10 home matches in all competitions.
- Monaco committed more than 10.5 fouls in 8 of their last 10 home matches in all competitions.
- Monaco scored fewer than 2.5 goals in 8 of their last 10 matches in all competitions.
Probable Monaco line-up (4-2-3-1): Lukáš Hrádecký, Vanderson, Sadibou Sané, Mohammed Salisu, Flávio Nazinho, Lamine Camara, Denis Zakaria, Takumi Minamino, Ansu Fati, Alexandr Golovin, Matthis Abline.
Paris Brunner was suspended before the previous match. Stanis Idumbo and Eric Dyer were receiving treatment and recovering.
Form and Line-up Freiburg
Freiburg opened their UEFA Conference League campaign with a 3:2 win over Jablonec. Their away matches regularly produce plenty of goals: at least three were scored in 8 of their last 10 away games in all competitions.
- Freiburg's opponents took fewer than 5.5 corners in 9 of the club's last 10 matches in all competitions.
- Freiburg's opponents committed more than 11.5 fouls in 8 of the club's last 10 matches in all competitions.
- Freiburg avoided defeat in 9 of their last 10 matches in all competitions.
Probable Freiburg line-up (4-2-2-2): Noah Backhaus, Philipp Treu, Matthias Ginter, Philipp Lienhart, Jordy Makengo, Maximilian Eggestein, Yannik Engelhardt, Niklas Beste, Derry Scherhant, Keisuke Goto, Igor Matanovic.
Niklas Beste and Derry Scherhant returned from injury and played in the previous match.
The teams' chances
A Monaco win is offered at 2.25, with fair odds of 2.35 and an implied probability of 42.5%. The draw is available at 3.65, with fair odds of 3.82 and a probability of 26.2%; a Freiburg win is 3.05, with fair odds of 3.19 and a probability of 31.3%.
| Outcome | Average odds | Average fair odds | Fair probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| Monaco win | 2.25 | 2.35 | 42.5% |
| Draw | 3.65 | 3.82 | 26.2% |
| Freiburg win | 3.05 | 3.19 | 31.3% |
Total goals prediction
Over 2.5 goals at 1.73 has shorter odds than Under 2.5 goals at 2.10. At the 3.5-goal line, the positions reverse: Under 3.5 goals is available at 1.45 and Over 3.5 goals at 2.65, suggesting that three or more goals are considered less likely.
| Line | Under | Over |
|---|---|---|
| 2.5 | 2.10 | 1.73 |
| 3.5 | 1.45 | 2.65 |
Handicap prediction
At the -1.5 handicap line, Monaco (-1.5) are 4.10 and Freiburg (-1.5) are 5.00. Odds are considerably shorter at +1: Monaco (+1) are 1.16 and Freiburg (+1) are 1.27; Monaco (+1.5) and Freiburg (+1.5) are 1.12 and 1.18 respectively. At -1, Monaco (-1) are available at 3.35 against 4.30 for Freiburg (-1), while at the 0 line Monaco (0) at 1.65 have shorter odds than Freiburg (0) at 2.20.
| Home | Handicap | Away |
|---|---|---|
| 4.10 | -1.5 | 5.00 |
| 1.12 | 1.5 | 1.18 |
| 3.35 | -1 | 4.30 |
| 1.16 | 1 | 1.27 |
| 1.65 | 0 | 2.20 |
Both teams to score prediction
Both teams to score – Yes is offered at 1.60, while Both teams to score – No is 2.25. The shorter odds for Yes suggest that goals from both sides are considered more likely; No means that at least one team will fail to score.
| Both teams to score | Odds |
|---|---|
| Yes | 1.60 |
| No | 2.25 |
Double chance forecast
| Bookmaker | 1X | 12 | X2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bet365 |
9/25
|
29/100
|
67/100
|
| William Hill |
9/25
|
29/100
|
31/50
|
| 888sport |
9/25
|
29/100
|
61/100
|
Odds are current as of the material publication date
Team total goals prediction
For this match, the bookmakers have set the following team goal totals: Monaco — 1.5 goals; Freiburg — 1 goal.
Monaco team total goals
For Monaco's team total, Over 0.5 goals is 1.17 against 4.15 for Under 0.5; at the 1-goal line, Over 1 is 1.35 and Under 1 is 3.00. At 1.5, Under 1.5 at 1.75 has shorter odds than Over 1.5 at 2.00, while at the 2-goal line Under 2 is 1.30 against 3.20 for Over 2.
| Under | Team total | Over |
|---|---|---|
| 4.15 | 0.5 | 1.17 |
| 3.00 | 1 | 1.35 |
| 1.75 | 1.5 | 2.00 |
| 1.30 | 2 | 3.20 |
Freiburg team total goals
For Freiburg's team total, Over 0.5 goals is offered at 1.28 and Under 0.5 at 3.35. At the 1-goal line, Over 1 at 1.55 has shorter odds than Under 1 at 2.35, while at 1.5 Under 1.5 is 1.55 against 2.35 for Over 1.5.
| Under | Team total | Over |
|---|---|---|
| 3.35 | 0.5 | 1.28 |
| 2.35 | 1 | 1.55 |
| 1.55 | 1.5 | 2.35 |
Who Will Referee the Match
Sam Barrott (England)
Matches — 7 (international matches, 2025/26–2026/27);
Average fouls per match — 27;
Average yellow cards per match (including second yellows) — 5.3;
Matches with a red card — 0 of 7;
Matches with a penalty — 2 of 7.
