Odds Overview
Monaco are clear favourites: Monaco to win is priced at 1.40, while the draw is 4.90 and Gornik to win is 7.00. In the main total, Over 2.5 goals at 1.52 is notably preferred to Under 2.5 goals at 2.35. In the handicap markets, the odds are 1.98 for Monaco (-1.5) and 1.78 for Gornik (+1.5); on the 0 line, the gap is even bigger — 1.13 on Monaco Draw No Bet against 4.90 on Gornik Draw No Bet.
Why Monaco Are Favourites for the Match
The bookmakers consider AS Monaco clear favourites for this match: a home win is priced at 1.40, the draw is 4.90, and a Gornik win is 7.00.
- AS Monaco won the first meeting in Zabrze 3:2 and earned a one-goal advantage before the home game, which reduces their need to take risks.
- A place in the Conference League league phase is at stake, with the winners of the two-legged tie going through and the losers ending their European campaign.
Form and Line-up Monaco
Filipe Luis' side opened their Ligue 1 season with a win over Le Havre (1:0), and in Zabrze they got the result without Golovin. Their attack remains productive — at least one goal in 9 of their last 10 matches in all competitions — but big scorelines have been rare: no more than two goals in 8 of those 10 games.
Key numbers:
Monaco have scored a maximum of two goals in 8 of their last 10 matches in all competitions.
In the first match against Gornik, the team converted three chances from 1.43 xG.
A total of over 2.5 goals has landed in 8 of Monaco's last 10 matches.
Probable line-up (4-2-3-1): Lukas Hradecky — Vanderson, Sadibou Sane, Eric Dier, Flavio Nazinho — Denis Zakaria, Lamine Camara — Mamadou Coulibaly, Aleksandr Golovin, Paris Brunner — Mika Biereth.
Form and Line-up Gornik
The Polish side have reached this stage the hard way: first elimination by Fenerbahce in Champions League qualifying, then by Ferencvaros in the Europa League — both times by the same 1:2 aggregate score.
In Zabrze, Mateusz Gasparik's team showed character: trailing 0:2, Prekop pulled one back in the 53rd minute, and after it became 1:3 Sondre Liseth reduced the deficit to the minimum. Before that, Gornik beat Wisla (2:1) in the league, finishing the match with nine men after a second sending-off.
Key numbers:
In 8 of their last 10 matches, Gornik have scored a maximum of two goals.
Over their last 10 games, the team have averaged 1.7 goals scored and 1.2 conceded.
Both teams have scored in 70% of their recent matches.
Probable line-up (4-2-3-1): Philipp Schulze — Michal Sacek, Rafal Janicki, Jose Manuel Sanchez Guillen, Erik Janza — Maximilian Dietz, Lukas Sadilek — Paulo Bernardo, Peter Federico Gonzalez, Maksym Khlan — Erik Prekop.
Team Chances
Monaco to win at 1.40 corresponds to a no-margin price of 1.49 and a probability of 67.3%. The draw is offered at 4.90, with a no-margin estimate of 5.20 and a probability of 19.2%, while Gornik Zabrze to win is 7.00, 7.43 and 13.5% respectively.
Result | Average odds | Average no-margin odds | No-margin probability |
Monaco to win | 1.40 | 1.49 | 67.3% |
Draw | 4.90 | 5.20 | 19.2% |
Gornik Zabrze to win | 7.00 | 7.43 | 13.5% |
Total Goals Prediction
On the 2.5 line, Under is available at 2.35 and Over at 1.52, so the market expects at least three goals. For the 3.5 line, the picture is reversed: Under 3.5 is 1.60 and Over 3.5 is 2.30.
Line | Under | Over |
2.5 | 2.35 | 1.52 |
3.5 | 1.60 | 2.30 |
Handicap Prediction
Monaco (-1.5) is priced at 1.98, while Gornik (+1.5) is 1.78. On the 1 line, Monaco (-1) is 1.55 against 2.25 on Gornik (+1). With a level handicap, Monaco Draw No Bet is available at 1.13 and Gornik Draw No Bet at 4.90.
Hosts | Handicap | Visitors |
1.98 | -1.5 | — |
— | 1.5 | 1.78 |
1.55 | -1 | — |
— | 1 | 2.25 |
1.13 | 0 | 4.90 |
Both Teams to Score Prediction
Both teams to score — Yes is priced at 1.75, while Both teams to score — No is 2.00: the option of both teams scoring is considered more likely.
Both teams to score | Odds |
Yes | 1.75 |
No | 2.00 |
Double Chance Prediction
1X is offered at 1.08, 12 at 1.16 and X2 at 2.85. The market virtually rules out a scenario in which Monaco do not win.
1X | 12 | X2 |
1.08 | 1.16 | 2.85 |
Team Total Prediction
For this match, the bookmakers have set the following team totals: Monaco — 2 goals, Gornik Zabrze — 0.5 goals.
Monaco Team Total
Monaco: Under 0.5 is available at 7.50 and Over 0.5 at 1.05; on the 1.5 line, the prices are 2.65 and 1.42 respectively. For the 2 line, Under is 2.02 and Over is 1.70, while on 2.5 Under is priced at 1.60 against 2.20 for Over.
Under | Team total | Over |
7.50 | 0.5 | 1.05 |
2.65 | 1.5 | 1.42 |
2.02 | 2 | 1.70 |
1.60 | 2.5 | 2.20 |
Gornik Zabrze Team Total
Gornik Zabrze: Under 0.5 is 2.20 and Over 0.5 is 1.60. On the 1 line, Under is available at 1.42 against 2.65 on Over, while on 1.5 the prices are 1.20 and 3.90 respectively.
Under | Team total | Over |
2.20 | 0.5 | 1.60 |
1.42 | 1 | 2.65 |
1.20 | 1.5 | 3.90 |
Who Will Referee the Match
Vassilis Fotias (Greece)
Matches – 9 (international matches, 2025–2026);
Average fouls per match – 24;
Average yellow cards per match (including second yellows) – 3.4;
Matches with red cards – 1 out of 9;
Matches with penalties – 4 out of 9.
