Odds overview
Montenegro are clear favourites at around 1.32 to win, compared with 5.00 for a draw and 9.00 for Latvia to win. In the main totals market, Over 2.5 goals at 1.78 is slightly more likely than Under 2.5 goals at 1.96. Latvia (-1.5) are available at 1.80 in the handicap market, compared with 1.94 for Montenegro (-1.5).
Why Montenegro are favourites
Montenegro are clear favourites with the bookmakers: a home win is available at 1.32, a draw at 5.00 and a Latvia win at 9.00.
- Montenegro have performed strongly in the competition, going unbeaten in their last four UEFA Nations League matches.
- Latvia have struggled to win regularly, failing to do so in eight of their last 10 competitive matches.
- The head-to-head record also favours the hosts: Montenegro are unbeaten against Latvia in all five known meetings.
Form and Line-up Montenegro
Montenegro drew 0:0 at home to Armenia on 5 October in the previous round of the UEFA Nations League. Before that, they beat Latvia 2:1 away on 2 October.
Nikola Krstović and Vasilije Adžić have stood out in attack for Montenegro in this UEFA Nations League campaign. Krstović has two goals and one assist in four matches, while Adžić has scored twice in four games.
- Montenegro have scored fewer than 3.5 goals in each of their last 10 competitive matches.
- Fewer than 3.5 goals have been scored in eight of Montenegro's last 10 UEFA Nations League matches.
Probable Montenegro line-up: Balša Popović, Adam Marusic, Igor Vujacic, Slobodan Rubežić, Milan Roganović, Stefan Loncar, Andrija Bulatovic, Vasilije Adžić, Milutin Osmajic, Nikola Krstović, Sead Haksabanovic
Form and Line-up Latvia
Latvia lost 1:2 away to Cyprus in their latest UEFA Nations League match on 5 October. On 28 September, they drew 0:0 at home to Cyprus.
Latvia have a newcomer for their November matches: head coach Paolo Nicolato has called up Super Nova midfielder Ivans Patrikejevs to the national team for the first time. Only Markuss Strods and Eduards Daškevičs have scored for Latvia in their four UEFA Nations League matches, with one goal each.
- Latvia have scored fewer than 2.5 goals in each of their last 10 competitive matches.
- The teams have scored fewer than 3.5 goals in each of Latvia's last 10 UEFA Nations League matches.
Probable Latvia line-up: Rihards Matrevics, Andrejs Ciganiks, Daniels Balodis, Deniss Melniks, Antonijs Cernomordijs, Raivis Jurkovskis, Eduards Daškevičs, Lūkass Vapne, Dmitrijs Zelenkovs, Markuss Strods, Vladislavs Gutkovskis
The teams' chances
A Montenegro win has average odds of 1.32, fair odds of 1.41 and a probability of 70.9%. A draw is offered at 5.00, with fair odds of 5.34 and a probability of 18.7%. A Latvia win is available at 9.00, with fair odds of 9.62 and a probability of 10.4%.
| Outcome | Average odds | Average fair odds | Probability without margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| Montenegro win | 1.32 | 1.41 | 70.9% |
| Draw | 5.00 | 5.34 | 18.7% |
| Latvia win | 9.00 | 9.62 | 10.4% |
Total goals prediction
At the 2.5-goal line, Under is available at 1.96 and Over at 1.78. For the 2-goal total, the odds are 2.85 for Under and 1.37 for Over. At 3.5 goals, Under is offered at 1.36 and Over at 2.89.
| Line | Under | Over |
|---|---|---|
| 2.5 | 1.96 | 1.78 |
| 2 | 2.85 | 1.37 |
| 3.5 | 1.36 | 2.89 |
Handicap prediction
Montenegro (-1.5) are available at 1.94, while Latvia (-1.5) are 1.80. The odds of 1.48 for Montenegro (-1) are notably shorter than the 2.49 for Latvia (-1).
| Home | Handicap | Away |
|---|---|---|
| 1.94 | -1.5 | 1.80 |
| 1.48 | -1 | 2.49 |
Double chance forecast
| Bookmaker | 1X | 12 | X2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bet365 |
3/100
|
13/100
|
11/4
|
| William Hill |
7/100
|
9/50
|
11/5
|
| LeoVegas |
7/100
|
7/50
|
11/5
|
Odds are current as of the material publication date
Team total goals prediction
Bookmakers have set the following team goal totals for this match: 2 goals for Montenegro and 0.5 goals for Latvia.
Montenegro team total goals
For Montenegro, Under 0.5 goals is available at 5.70 and Over 0.5 at 1.09. At the 1.5-goal line, Under is 2.46 compared with 1.49 for Over. Under 2 goals is offered at 1.85 and Over 2 at 1.87. At 2.5 goals, the odds are 1.48 for Under and 2.49 for Over.
| Under | Team total | Over |
|---|---|---|
| 5.70 | 0.5 | 1.09 |
| 2.46 | 1.5 | 1.49 |
| 1.85 | 2 | 1.87 |
| 1.48 | 2.5 | 2.49 |
Latvia team total goals
For Latvia, Under 0.5 goals is available at 1.76 and Over 0.5 at 1.99. At the 1.5-goal line, Under is offered at 1.10, while Over is 5.40. No odds are listed for Under 2.5 goals; Over 2.5 is available at 9.50.
| Under | Team total | Over |
|---|---|---|
| 1.76 | 0.5 | 1.99 |
| 1.10 | 1.5 | 5.40 |
| 2.5 | 9.50 |
Who Will Referee the Match
Jérôme Brisard (France)
Matches — 7 (international fixtures, 2025/26–2026/27);
Average fouls per match — 24;
Average yellow cards per match (including second yellows) — 4.4;
Matches with a red card — 1 of 7;
Matches with a penalty — 2 of 7.
