Odds overview
Atalanta are favourites at 2.08, while a Monza win is available at around 3.30 and the draw at 3.80. In the main totals market, Over 2.5 goals at 1.55 is favoured over Under 2.5 at 2.35. In the Draw No Bet market, Monza are available at 2.40 and Atalanta at 1.57, giving Atalanta the shorter odds.
Why Atalanta are favourites
Bookmakers favour Atalanta, offering 2.08 for a win by the Bergamo side. The draw is available at 3.80 and a Monza win at 3.30.
- Atalanta have a perfect record against Monza, winning all of their last 7 head-to-head meetings.
- Monza have failed to win 8 of their last 10 Serie A matches.
Form and Line-up Monza
In the previous round, on 31 October, Monza lost 1:2 away to Bologna. A few days earlier, on 28 October, they lost 1:4 at home to Napoli.
Monza have a reliable attacking option in forward Gustavo Varela, who has scored 9 goals in 9 Serie A appearances this season.
- In each of Monza's last 10 matches in all official competitions, the two teams have combined for more than 5.5 shots on target.
- In 8 of Monza's last 10 matches in all official competitions, referees have shown fewer than 4.5 yellow cards.
Probable line-up: Noel Törnqvist, Eddy Kouadio, Saba Goglichidze, Lorenzo Lucchesi, Samuele Birindelli, Ebenezer Akinsanmiro, Manga Foe Ondoa, Ricardo Mangas, Dany Mota, Exequiel Zeballos, Gustavo Varela.
Michael Folorunsho will miss out for Monza with a calf injury, while captain Matteo Pessina and Jan Ziółkowski are also listed among the absentees.
Form and Line-up Atalanta
Atalanta drew 1:1 with Kairat on 5 November. In their previous Serie A match, on 2 November, they lost 0:3 at home to Parma.
Earlier in the league campaign, Atalanta played out much higher-scoring draws: 2:2 against Fiorentina and 4:4 against Frosinone Calcio. Nikola Krstović remains the Bergamo side's top scorer, with 6 goals in 10 league appearances.
- Atalanta have failed to win 8 of their last 10 competitive matches.
- More than 7.5 corners have been taken in 8 of Atalanta's last 10 matches in all official competitions.
Probable line-up: Marco Carnesecchi, Davide Zappacosta, Giorgio Scalvini, Relja Obrić, Lorenzo Bernasconi, Mario Pašalić, Ederson, Eljif Elmas, Charles De Ketelaere, Jonathan Rowe, Nikola Krstović.
Atalanta defenders Raoul Bellanova and Odilon Kossounou are listed as absent with thigh injuries.
The teams' chances
The margin-free assessment gives Monza a 28.9% chance of winning, with fair odds of 3.45 compared with average odds of 3.30. The draw is rated at 25.1%, with fair odds of 3.98 against an average of 3.80. Atalanta's win probability is 45.9%, with fair odds of 2.18 compared with an average of 2.08.
| Outcome | Average odds | Average fair odds | Margin-free probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| Monza win | 3.30 | 3.45 | 28.9% |
| Draw | 3.80 | 3.98 | 25.1% |
| Atalanta win | 2.08 | 2.18 | 45.9% |
Total goals betting
At the 2.5-goal line, Under is available at 2.35 and Over at 1.55. At 3.5 goals, the odds are reversed in favour of Under: 1.60 for Under and 2.35 for Over.
| Line | Under | Over |
|---|---|---|
| 2.5 | 2.35 | 1.55 |
| 3.5 | 1.60 | 2.35 |
Handicap betting
Monza (-1.5) are available at 5.90 and Atalanta (-1.5) at 3.30. At the +1.5 handicap line, Monza (+1.5) and Atalanta (+1.5) are offered at 1.28 and 1.08 respectively. At -1, Monza (-1) are 5.10 and Atalanta (-1) are 2.75; at +1, Monza (+1) are 1.40 and Atalanta (+1) are 1.11. Monza Draw No Bet (0) is available at 2.40 and Atalanta Draw No Bet (0) at 1.57.
| Home | Handicap | Away |
|---|---|---|
| 5.90 | -1.5 | 3.30 |
| 1.28 | 1.5 | 1.08 |
| 5.10 | -1 | 2.75 |
| 1.40 | 1 | 1.11 |
| 2.40 | 0 | 1.57 |
Both teams to score betting
Both teams to score — Yes is available at 1.50, while Both teams to score — No, meaning at least one team will not score, is offered at 2.50.
| Both teams to score | Odds |
|---|---|
| Yes | 1.50 |
| No | 2.50 |
Double chance forecast
| Bookmaker | 1X | 12 | X2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bet365 |
73/100
|
29/100
|
29/100
|
| LeoVegas |
7/10
|
7/25
|
33/100
|
| 888sport |
3/4
|
1/4
|
33/100
|
Odds are current as of the material publication date
Team total goals betting
For this match, bookmakers have set the following team goal totals: Monza — 1 goal; Atalanta — 1.5 goals.
Monza team total goals
For Monza, Under 0.5 goals is available at 3.40 and Over 0.5 at 1.27. At the 1-goal line, the odds for Under and Over are 2.25 and 1.60; at the 1.5-goal line, they are 1.57 and 2.35 respectively.
| Under | Team total | Over |
|---|---|---|
| 3.40 | 0.5 | 1.27 |
| 2.25 | 1 | 1.60 |
| 1.57 | 1.5 | 2.35 |
Atalanta team total goals
For Atalanta, Under 0.5 goals is available at 4.70 and Over 0.5 at 1.14. At the 1-goal line, Under is offered at 3.35 and Over at 1.28; at the 1.5-goal line, the respective odds are 1.95 and 1.80. Under 2 goals is available at 1.50 and Over 2 at 2.50.
| Under | Team total | Over |
|---|---|---|
| 4.70 | 0.5 | 1.14 |
| 3.35 | 1 | 1.28 |
| 1.95 | 1.5 | 1.80 |
| 1.50 | 2 | 2.50 |
Who Will Referee the Match
Claudio Allegretta (Italy)
Matches — 20 (Serie B, 2025/26–2026/27);
Average fouls per match — 25;
Average yellow cards per match (including second yellows) — 4;
Matches with a red card — 2 of 20;
Matches with a penalty — 5 of 20.
