Odds overview
The Netherlands are clear favourites at 1.50 to win, compared with 4.70 for a draw and 6.00 for a Greece win. In the main totals market, Over 2.5 goals at 1.58 is considerably more likely than Under 2.5 at 2.26. In the handicap markets, Greece (-1.5) at 1.59 is favoured over the Netherlands (-1.5) at 2.24.
Why the Netherlands are favourites
The Netherlands are the bookmakers' favourites. A home win is available at 1.50, a draw at 4.70 and a Greece win at 6.00.
- The Netherlands consistently pick up points at home: they have avoided defeat in 9 of their last 10 home matches in the UEFA Nations League.
- Greece have had more slip-ups over the longer term: they have avoided defeat in 7 of their last 10 competitive matches.
Form and Line-up Netherlands
In their most recent completed match, on 4 October 2026, the Netherlands beat Serbia 2:1 at home. A week earlier, on 27 September, they beat the same opponents away by the same score, 2:1.
There is a new face in defence: on 10 November, Brentford defender Sepp van den Berg received his first senior international call-up for the matches against Greece and Germany.
- The Netherlands have scored in each of their last 10 matches.
- The Netherlands have had at least four shots on target in each of their last 10 home matches in the UEFA Nations League.
Probable Netherlands line-up (4-2-3-1): Bart Verbruggen, Denzel Dumfries, Teun Koopmeiners, Paul van Hecke, Micky van de Ven, Joey Veerman, Tijjani Reijnders, Crysencio Summerville, Cody Gakpo, Mexx Meerdink, Noa Lang
Form and Line-up Greece
In the latest round, on 4 October 2026, Greece drew 0:0 at home to Germany. Before that, they recorded two consecutive away wins: they beat Germany 1:0 on 27 September and Serbia 2:1 on 24 September.
- Greece have won 9 of their last 10 away matches in the UEFA Nations League.
- Greece's opponents have scored no more than three goals in each of their last 10 matches across all competitive tournaments.
Probable Greece line-up (4-4-2): Konstantinos Tzolakis, Konstantinos Koulierakis, Konstantinos Mavropanos, Kostas Tsimikas, Alexandros Kyziridis, Georgios Masouras, Fotis Ioannidis, Christos Tzolis, Konstantinos Karetsas, Anastasios Douvikas, Vangelis Pavlidis
The teams' chances
The average odds on a Netherlands win are 1.50; the fair odds are 1.57, implying a 63.7% probability. For a draw, the figures are 4.70, 4.92 and 20.3%, while for a Greece win they are 6.00, 6.28 and 15.9%, respectively.
| Result | Average odds | Average fair odds | Fair probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| Netherlands win | 1.50 | 1.57 | 63.7% |
| Draw | 4.70 | 4.92 | 20.3% |
| Greece win | 6.00 | 6.28 | 15.9% |
Total goals betting
At a line of 2.5 goals, Over 2.5 is available at 1.58, compared with 2.26 for Under 2.5. At a line of 2, Over 2 is offered at 1.25 and Under 2 at 3.50. For 3.5 goals, Under 3.5 remains the favourite at 1.51, while Over 3.5 is available at 2.41.
| Line | Under | Over |
|---|---|---|
| 2.5 | 2.26 | 1.58 |
| 2 | 3.50 | 1.25 |
| 3.5 | 1.51 | 2.41 |
Handicap betting
At a handicap of -1.5, Greece (-1.5) are available at 1.59, compared with 2.24 for the Netherlands (-1.5). At a line of -1, the odds are closer: the Netherlands (-1) are offered at 1.77 and Greece (-1) at 1.97.
| Home | Handicap | Away |
|---|---|---|
| 2.24 | -1.5 | 1.59 |
| 1.77 | -1 | 1.97 |
Double chance forecast
| Bookmaker | 1X | 12 | X2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bet365 |
13/100
|
9/50
|
3/2
|
| William Hill |
3/25
|
1/5
|
81/50
|
| LeoVegas |
4/25
|
1/5
|
27/20
|
Odds are current as of the material publication date
Team total goals betting
For this match, bookmakers have set the following team goals lines: the Netherlands — 2 goals; Greece — 0.5 goals.
Netherlands team total goals
For the Netherlands, Over 0.5 goals is available at 1.09, compared with 5.70 for Under 0.5. At 1.5 goals, Over 1.5 is quoted at 1.50 and Under 1.5 at 2.43. At a line of 2, the odds are almost equal: Under 2 at 1.85 and Over 2 at 1.87. At 2.5 goals, Under 2.5 is favoured at 1.48, while Over 2.5 is available at 2.49.
| Under | Team total | Over |
|---|---|---|
| 5.70 | 0.5 | 1.09 |
| 2.43 | 1.5 | 1.50 |
| 1.85 | 2 | 1.87 |
| 1.48 | 2.5 | 2.49 |
Greece team total goals
For Greece, Over 0.5 goals is offered at 1.53 and Under 0.5 at 2.37. At 1.5 goals, Under 1.5 is available at 1.26, compared with 3.45 for Over 1.5. At a line of 2.5, Under 2.5 is quoted at 1.04, while Over 2.5 is available at 7.40.
| Under | Team total | Over |
|---|---|---|
| 2.37 | 0.5 | 1.53 |
| 1.26 | 1.5 | 3.45 |
| 1.04 | 2.5 | 7.40 |
Who Will Referee the Match
Rohit Saggi (Norway)
Matches — 17 (international matches, 2025–2026);
Average fouls per match — 27;
Average yellow cards per match (including second yellows) — 3.9;
Matches with red cards — 3 of 17;
Matches with penalties — 5 of 17.
