Odds Overview
Newcastle United are moderate favourites: a home win is available at 2.25, an Aston Villa win at 3.00 and a draw at 3.70. In the main totals market, Over 2.5 goals at 1.60 is clearly favoured over Under 2.5 goals at 2.30. In the handicap market, Newcastle United Draw No Bet at 1.67 has shorter odds than Aston Villa Draw No Bet at 2.20.
Why Newcastle United Are Favourites
The bookmakers favour the hosts: a Newcastle United win is offered at 2.25, an Aston Villa win at 3.00 and a draw at 3.70.
• Aston Villa have made a difficult start to the season: after six Premier League rounds, they have just five points and sit 16th in the table.
• Newcastle United are 11th, but have earned five of their eight points at St James' Park, where they have conceded only 5 of their 13 goals against.
• A congested schedule makes things harder for the visitors: Aston Villa played a home UEFA Champions League match against Fenerbahce on 14 October, immediately before their trip to Newcastle United, although they won it comfortably 6:0.
Form and Line-up Newcastle United
Newcastle United approached the match with a disrupted schedule: their game against Coventry City (1:4) was moved to 12 October, leaving them a shorter week to prepare. The Magpies conceded eight goals in their last two away games, accounting for 62% of all the goals they have conceded.
- Newcastle United scored more than 1.5 goals in 8 of their last 10 Premier League home matches.
- There were more than 8.5 shots on target in 8 of Newcastle United's last 10 Premier League home matches.
- Over 3.5 total yellow cards occurred in each of Newcastle United's last 10 Premier League home matches.
Probable line-up (4-2-3-1): Lukáš Horníček, Lewis Hall, Sven Botman, Malick Thiaw, Lewis Miley, Nicolás González, Joe Willock, Jacob Murphy, Yoane Wissa, Harvey Barnes, Matías Fernández-Pardo
Unavailable: Tino Livramento, Bazoumana Touré, Ewen Jaouen (injured), Anthony Elanga (doubtful)
Form and Line-up Aston Villa
Aston Villa secured an emphatic result, thrashing Fenerbahce 6:0 in the second round of the UEFA Champions League, but that match took place on 14 October, two days after Newcastle United's last game. In the Premier League, Aston Villa sit 16th with five points after a slow start in which they took just one point from their first four matches.
Unai Emery's side still create little, however: ahead of the seventh round, Aston Villa's xG stands at 1.14 — the second-lowest figure among Premier League clubs.
- Aston Villa took fewer than 5.5 corners in 8 of their last 10 Premier League away matches.
- Aston Villa's opponents had more than 3.5 shots on target in 8 of Villa's last 10 Premier League away matches.
- Aston Villa received fewer than 2.5 yellow cards in 8 of their last 10 Premier League away matches.
Probable line-up (4-2-3-1): Zion Suzuki, Matty Cash, Victor Lindelöf, Tyrone Mings, Aaron Wan-Bissaka, Boubacar Kamara, Joao Gomes, John McGinn, Emiliano Buendia, Johan Manzambi, Nicolas Jackson
Unavailable: Matteo Ruggeri, Ian Maatsen, George Hemmings, Amadou Onana, Modou Kéba Cissé (injured)
The Teams' Chances
A Newcastle United win is offered at 2.25; the fair odds are 2.36, implying a 42.4% probability. The draw is quoted at 3.70, with fair odds of 3.88 and a 25.8% probability. An Aston Villa win is available at 3.00; the fair odds are 3.14, implying a 31.8% probability.
| Outcome | Average Odds | Average Fair Odds | Fair Probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| Newcastle United to win | 2.25 | 2.36 | 42.4% |
| Draw | 3.70 | 3.88 | 25.8% |
| Aston Villa to win | 3.00 | 3.14 | 31.8% |
Total Goals Prediction
At the 2.5-goal line, Under 2.5 is offered at 2.30 and Over 2.5 at 1.60, so the market expects at least three goals. At the 3.5-goal line, Under 3.5 has shorter odds at 1.55 than Over 3.5 at 2.35.
| Line | Under | Over |
|---|---|---|
| 2.5 | 2.30 | 1.60 |
| 3.5 | 1.55 | 2.35 |
Handicap Prediction
Newcastle United (-1.5) is available at 3.85 and Aston Villa (-1.5) at 4.80. Newcastle United (+1.5) at 1.13 has shorter odds than Aston Villa (+1.5) at 1.22. At the -1 line, Newcastle United (-1) is available at 3.15 and Aston Villa (-1) at 4.20; at the +1 line, Newcastle United (+1) is offered at 1.17 and Aston Villa (+1) at 1.30. For Draw No Bet, Newcastle United (0) at 1.67 is favoured over Aston Villa (0) at 2.20.
| Home | Handicap | Away |
|---|---|---|
| 3.85 | -1.5 | 4.80 |
| 1.13 | 1.5 | 1.22 |
| 3.15 | -1 | 4.20 |
| 1.17 | 1 | 1.30 |
| 1.67 | 0 | 2.20 |
Both Teams to Score Prediction
Both teams to score — Yes is offered at 1.50 and is considerably more likely than Both teams to score — No at 2.45, which requires at least one team not to score.
| Both Teams to Score | Odds |
|---|---|
| Yes | 1.50 |
| No | 2.45 |
Double chance forecast
| Bookmaker | 1X | 12 | X2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bet365 |
9/25
|
29/100
|
31/50
|
| 888sport |
9/25
|
29/100
|
67/100
|
Odds are current as of the material publication date
Team Goals Prediction
For this match, the bookmakers have set the following team goal lines: Newcastle United — 1.5 goals; Aston Villa — 1.5 goals.
Newcastle United Team Goals
Newcastle United team goals: Under 0.5 — 4.60, Over 0.5 — 1.14; Under 1 — 3.20, Over 1 — 1.30. At the 1.5-goal line, the odds are equal: Under 1.5 and Over 1.5 are both 1.88. At the 2-goal line, Under 2 is offered at 1.37 and Over 2 at 2.85.
| Under | Team Goals | Over |
|---|---|---|
| 4.60 | 0.5 | 1.14 |
| 3.20 | 1 | 1.30 |
| 1.88 | 1.5 | 1.88 |
| 1.37 | 2 | 2.85 |
Aston Villa Team Goals
Aston Villa team goals: Under 0.5 — 3.65, Over 0.5 — 1.25; Under 1 — 2.50, Over 1 — 1.50. At the 1.5-goal line, Under 1.5 at 1.63 is favoured over Over 1.5 at 2.20. At the 2-goal line, Under 2 is available at 1.25 and Over 2 at 3.60.
| Under | Team Goals | Over |
|---|---|---|
| 3.65 | 0.5 | 1.25 |
| 2.50 | 1 | 1.50 |
| 1.63 | 1.5 | 2.20 |
| 1.25 | 2 | 3.60 |
