Odds overview
In the 1X2 market, the home win has a slight edge at 2.20 over the away win at 3.05, while the draw is available at 3.75. Over 2.5 goals is 1.60 compared with 2.35 for Under 2.5 goals, indicating expectations of a high-scoring match. In the main handicap market, Newcastle United Draw No Bet at 1.65 looks more attractive than Bournemouth Draw No Bet at 2.20.
Why Newcastle United are favourites
Bookmakers offer odds of 2.20 on a Newcastle United win and 3.05 on Bournemouth, while the draw is available at 3.75.
- Newcastle United have already beaten Tottenham Hotspur 2:0 away from home, keeping a clean sheet.
- Bournemouth lost their most recent away match to Manchester City 1:2.
Form and Line-up Newcastle United
At the start of the season, Newcastle United drew 2:2 at home with Liverpool and beat West Bromwich Albion 3:2 in the EFL Cup.
Nico Gonzalez has recently strengthened the centre of the team, starting in the second round. In the same away match against Tottenham Hotspur, the Magpies had 11 shots on the opposition goal.
Key numbers:
- In 8 of their last 10 Premier League home matches, Newcastle United's opponents have taken no more than five corners.
- Newcastle United's Premier League home matches have produced at least 21 fouls in 8 of 10 games.
- Over 2.5 goals has landed in 9 of Newcastle United's last 10 Premier League home matches.
Probable Newcastle United line-up (4-2-3-1): Lukas Hornicek — Amar Dedic, Malick Thiaw, Sven Botman, Lewis Hall — Nico Gonzalez, Lewis Miley — Anthony Elanga, Joe Willock, Harvey Barnes — Yoane Wissa
Absentees: Joelinton, Tino Livramento, William Osula, Dan Burn (injuries)
Form and Line-up Bournemouth
In the previous round, Bournemouth drew 1:1 at home with Everton, conceding the equaliser in the 90+1st minute, and have one point after two rounds.
The visitors have revamped the centre of their defence with the arrival of Antonio Silva and managed five shots on target in their latest match.
Key numbers:
- In 9 of Bournemouth's last 10 Premier League away matches, their opponents have taken at least five corners.
- Bournemouth's opponents committed at least 11 fouls in 8 of their 10 Premier League away games.
- Bournemouth have had no more than 5 shots on target in their last 10 Premier League away matches.
Probable Bournemouth line-up (4-2-3-1): Djordje Petrovic — Adam Smith, Antonio Silva, James Hill, Adrien Truffert — Lewis Cook, Alex Scott — Rayan, Justin Kluivert, Marcus Tavernier — Evanilson
Absentees: Amine Adli, Eli Junior Kroupi, Julian Araujo, Veljko Milosavljevic (injuries)
Team chances
Newcastle United to win is available at 2.20; the fair odds are 2.31 and the probability is 43.3%. The corresponding figures for the draw are 3.75, 3.93 and 25.4%. Bournemouth to win is available at 3.05, with fair odds of 3.20 and a probability of 31.3%.
Outcome | Average odds | Average fair odds | Fair probability |
Newcastle United to win | 2.20 | 2.31 | 43.3% |
Draw | 3.75 | 3.93 | 25.4% |
Bournemouth to win | 3.05 | 3.20 | 31.3% |
Total goals prediction
Under 2.5 goals is available at 2.35 and Over 2.5 goals at 1.60, so the market rates the higher-scoring option more highly. The situation is reversed at 3.5: Under 3.5 goals is 1.55 compared with 2.35 for Over 3.5 goals.
Line | Under | Over |
2.5 | 2.35 | 1.60 |
3.5 | 1.55 | 2.35 |
Handicap prediction
Newcastle United (-1.5) is available at 3.60 and Bournemouth (-1.5) at 5.60. In the pair of Newcastle United (+1.5) at 1.09 and Bournemouth (+1.5) at 1.25, the home side have the shorter odds. Newcastle United (-1) is 2.95 compared with 4.80 for Bournemouth (-1); for the +1 handicap, Newcastle United (+1) is 1.13 and Bournemouth (+1) is 1.35. On the zero line, Newcastle United Draw No Bet is 1.65 and Bournemouth Draw No Bet is 2.20.
Home | Handicap | Away |
3.60 | -1.5 | 5.60 |
1.09 | 1.5 | 1.25 |
2.95 | -1 | 4.80 |
1.13 | 1 | 1.35 |
1.65 | 0 | 2.20 |
Both teams to score prediction
Both teams to score - Yes is available at 1.50, while Both teams to score - No — meaning at least one team will not score — is 2.50. The market considers both teams scoring the more likely outcome.
Both teams to score | Odds |
Yes | 1.50 |
No | 2.50 |
Double chance prediction
1X is available at 1.40, 12 at 1.30 and X2 at 1.68. Of the double-chance outcomes, the market considers the no-draw option the most likely.
1X | 12 | X2 |
1.40 | 1.30 | 1.68 |
Team total prediction
Bookmakers have set the following team totals for this match: Newcastle United — 1.5 goals; Bournemouth — 1.5 goals.
Newcastle United team total
Newcastle United team total: Under 0.5 is 4.70 and Over 0.5 is 1.14; on the 1-goal line, the odds are 3.30 and 1.28 respectively. At 1.5, the odds are almost even: Under 1.5 is 1.90 and Over 1.5 is 1.85. On the 2-goal line, Under 2 is 1.45 compared with 2.65 for Over 2.
Under | Team total | Over |
4.70 | 0.5 | 1.14 |
3.30 | 1 | 1.28 |
1.90 | 1.5 | 1.85 |
1.45 | 2 | 2.65 |
Bournemouth team total
Bournemouth team total: Under 0.5 is available at 3.65 and Over 0.5 at 1.25; on the 1-goal line, the odds are 2.60 and 1.47. Under 1.5 is 1.63 compared with 2.20 for Over 1.5, while on the 2-goal line, Under 2 is 1.20 and Over 2 is 4.20.
Under | Team total | Over |
3.65 | 0.5 | 1.25 |
2.60 | 1 | 1.47 |
1.63 | 1.5 | 2.20 |
1.20 | 2 | 4.20 |
Who Will Referee the Match
Robert Jones (England)
Matches — 19 (Premier League, 2025/26–2026/27);
Average fouls per match — 21;
Average yellow cards per match, including second yellows — 4.1;
Matches with red cards — 0 of 19;
Matches with penalties — 4 of 19.
