Why Liverpool Are Favourites for the Match
Bookmakers make the visitors favourites: a Liverpool win is priced at 1.90, the draw at 3.95 and a Newcastle United win at 3.75. The arguments behind that view are:
The hosts' squad overhaul. The departures of Bruno Guimaraes, Sandro Tonali and Anthony Gordon have left a vacuum in Newcastle United's midfield and attack.
The visitors' individual quality. Liverpool's attacking options (Isak, Gakpo, Ekitike) under Iraola will give them an advantage even away from home.
Disciplined away performances. In 10 of their last 10 away matches, the team received no more yellow cards than their opponents.
A pre-season test before the start. A 2:0 clean-sheet win over Como 1907 in a friendly.
Form and Line-up Newcastle United
Newcastle United rounded off their season preparations with back-to-back friendlies: first they lost to Bayer Leverkusen (1:2), with Malick Thiaw scoring, and the next day they drew with Strasbourg thanks to a goal from William Osula.
Across the whole pre-season cycle, the Magpies played seven matches and won only twice.
Newcastle United's transfer campaign was fairly high-profile, but focused on sales — 275 million euros was raised from Gordon, Guimaraes and Tonali. Young footballers arrived to replace them: Ewen Jaouen (Reims), Bazoumana Toure (Hoffenheim), Sean Steur (Ajax), Aladji Bamba (Monaco), Lukas Hornicek (Braga) and Amar Dedic. In total, the hosts spent 194 million euros on all their new signings.
Key numbers:
They have conceded in six matches in a row.
Fewer than 4 yellow cards have been shown in 10 consecutive matches.
More than 10 corners were taken in 5 of their previous 7 games.
Probable Newcastle United line-up (4-3-3): Lukas Hornicek — Amar Dedic, Malick Thiaw, Sven Botman, Lewis Hall — Jacob Ramsey, Yoane Wissa, Aladji Bamba — Anthony Elanga, William Osula, Harvey Barnes.
Absentees: Joelinton (injury), Joe Willock, Tino Livramento (both doubtful).
Form and Line-up Liverpool
Before the start of the official season, Liverpool played a friendly against Como and earned a 2:0 clean-sheet win. It was their third victory of pre-season, while in the other matches the Reds suffered two defeats and drew once.
Liverpool had a more modest transfer campaign — Mohamed Salah (Trabzonspor) and Ibrahima Konate (Real Madrid) left as free agents, while Curtis Jones joined Inter for 36 million euros. The notable incoming transfers include Jeremy Jacquet (Rennes) for 64 million euros, Victor Munoz (Osasuna) for 40 million euros and the loan of Robert Araujo from Barcelona.
Key numbers:
Liverpool scored first in 6 of their previous 7 matches.
Fewer than 4 yellow cards have been shown in six consecutive matches.
More than 10 corners were taken in 5 of their last 6 matches.
Probable Liverpool line-up (4-2-3-1): Alisson — Jeremie Frimpong, Virgil van Dijk, Jeremy Jacquet, Milos Kerkez — Dominik Szoboszlai, Ryan Gravenberch — Rio Ngumoha, Florian Wirtz, Cody Gakpo — Alexander Isak.
Absentees: Conor Bradley, Giovanni Leoni, Joe Gomez, Hugo Ekitike, Isaac Mabaya (all injured).
Team Chances
Home win: average odds 3.75, no-margin price 3.92 and probability 25.5%. Draw: 3.95, no-margin price 4.13 and 24.2%. Away win: 1.90, no-margin price 1.99 and 50.3%, which makes Liverpool favourites.
Outcome | Average odds | Average no-margin odds | No-margin probability |
Newcastle United to win | 3.75 | 3.92 | 25.5% |
Draw | 3.95 | 4.13 | 24.2% |
Liverpool to win | 1.90 | 1.99 | 50.3% |
Total Goals Prediction
On the 2.5-goal line, Over 2.5 goals is offered at 1.50, while Under 2.5 goals is priced at 2.50. On 3.5, Under 3.5 goals is rated higher at 1.68 against Over 3.5 goals at 2.18.
Line | Under | Over |
2.5 | 2.50 | 1.50 |
3.5 | 1.68 | 2.18 |
Handicap Prediction
Newcastle United (-1.5) is available at 6.20, while Liverpool (-1.5) is 2.80. For the 1.5 line, the odds on Newcastle United (+1.5) and Liverpool (+1.5) are 1.38 and 1.07. Newcastle United (-1) is priced at 5.50 against 2.40 on Liverpool (-1), while on the 1 line it is 1.57 on Newcastle United (+1) and 1.10 on Liverpool (+1). In the handicap 0 market, Liverpool (0) at 1.42 looks preferable to Newcastle United (0) at 2.65.
Hosts | Handicap | Visitors |
6.20 | -1.5 | 2.80 |
1.38 | 1.5 | 1.07 |
5.50 | -1 | 2.40 |
1.57 | 1 | 1.10 |
2.65 | 0 | 1.42 |
Both Teams to Score Prediction
Both teams to score - Yes is priced at 1.50, while Both teams to score - No is 2.55; the second option means at least one team will not score.
Both teams to score | Odds |
Yes | 1.50 |
No | 2.55 |
Double Chance Prediction
In double chance, 12 at 1.28 and X2 at 1.30 look preferable to 1X at 1.90.
1X | 12 | X2 |
1.90 | 1.28 | 1.30 |
Team Total Prediction
For this match, bookmakers have set the following team totals: Newcastle United — 1 goal, Liverpool — 2 goals.
Newcastle United Team Total
Newcastle United: Over 0.5 goals is priced at 1.30 against Under 0.5 goals at 3.25. On the 1 line, Over 1 goal is available at 1.68 and Under 1 goal at 2.12. For 1.5, the price is shorter on Under 1.5 goals at 1.50, while Over 1.5 goals is offered at 2.50.
Under | Team total | Over |
3.25 | 0.5 | 1.30 |
2.12 | 1 | 1.68 |
1.50 | 1.5 | 2.50 |
Liverpool Team Total
Liverpool: Over 0.5 goals at 1.10 is notably more likely than Under 0.5 goals at 5.40. On 1.5, Over 1.5 goals is priced at 1.62 against Under 1.5 goals at 2.20. For the 2 line, Under 2 goals is 1.70 and Over 2 goals is 2.10; on 2.5, Under 2.5 goals is offered at 1.40 and Over 2.5 goals at 2.70.
Under | Team total | Over |
5.40 | 0.5 | 1.10 |
2.20 | 1.5 | 1.62 |
1.70 | 2 | 2.10 |
1.40 | 2.5 | 2.70 |
