The return leg of the 2025/26 Champions League play-off tie between Newcastle United (England) and Qarabag FK (Azerbaijan) will take place on 24 February at St James' Park. The score in the first leg was 6:1 in favour of Newcastle United. Newcastle United vs Qarabag FK: prediction, betting odds and statistics.
Newcastle United
Newcastle United settled the issue of reaching the round of 16 in the first leg. The home team thrashed a resilient Qarabag FK on their own patch 6:1. Notably, Anthony Gordon scored four goals in the first half, becoming only the second player in the competition's history to achieve that feat. Newcastle United's unbeaten run in the Champions League has reached four matches (two wins, two draws), while their scoring streak has extended to 11 games. However, in four of their last five Champions League outings, the club have also allowed the opposition to find the net. To progress to the next round, Eddie Howe's men can even lose the upcoming match by as many as four goals.
- At least three goals have been scored in eight of the English side's previous 10 games in this European competition.
- At home in the Champions League, the team have a seven-match run without a draw (four wins, three defeats).
- Newcastle United opened the scoring in six of their last eight Champions League matches.
Potential Newcastle United Lineup (4-3-3)
Nick Pope – Dan Burn, Kieran Trippier, Lewis Hall, Alex Murphy – Jacob Ramsey, Joe Willock, Jacob Murphy – Nick Woltemade, Anthony Elanga, Harvey Barnes.
The team are without midfielders Lewis Miley and Bruno Guimaraes, and defenders Tino Livramento and Fabian Schar. Defender Malick Thiaw is suspended.
Qarabag FK
That defeat in the previous match was the Azerbaijan side's fourth in their last five Champions League games (one win), and it was also the heaviest home loss they have ever suffered in this tournament. In addition, Qarabag FK have conceded at least two goals in seven straight Champions League matches. To reach the round of 16, the club need to beat the English side by a margin of six goals. A win by exactly five would send the tie to extra time. The Agdam outfit have not long ago beaten Ludogorets by such a margin, but they only managed to achieve that difference in extra time.
- Qarabag FK have scored in 13 of their last 15 Champions League matches.
- The team have failed to win six of their previous seven games in this tournament (one draw, five defeats).
- There have been goals in both halves in 12 of the last 13 Champions League matches involving the Azerbaijan side.
Potential Qarabag FK Lineup (4-5-1)
Mateusz Kochalski – Badavi Huseynov, Kevin Medina, Mateus Silva, Elvin Jafarguliyev – Marko Jankovic, Abdellah Zoubir, Leandro Andrade, Pedro Bicalho, Jony Montiel – Camilo Duran.
Defender Bahlul Mustafazade is injured.
Referee
Davide Massa (Italy)
Matches – 11 (international fixtures, 2025/26);
Yellow cards shown (including second yellows) – 39;
Average yellow cards per match – 3.5;
Red cards shown – 4;
Fouls per match on average – 24;
Penalties – 36%.
Newcastle United vs Qarabag FK: Match Prediction
In their last two Champions League matches, the Azerbaijan side have faced English opposition, and those encounters are unlikely to be forgotten by Qarabag FK any time soon. Gurban Gurbanov's men conceded six goals in both games, and the only thing left for the team before their campaign in the tournament comes to an end is to go out with a bang. We would suggest the Agdam side will try to start on the front foot, aiming to score an early goal. But in that scenario, the chances of conceding at the other end will also be high.
Qarabag FK had already conceded twice by the 11th minute in the first leg. At Liverpool, by the midway point of the opening 45 minutes, the Agdam side had also allowed the opposition to score twice. It gives the impression the team lack concentration at the start of matches. In this Champions League campaign, Chelsea, Eintracht Frankfurt and Benfica have also scored quick goals against the Azerbaijan club. And in the qualifying rounds, against far less dangerous opponents, the same pattern was repeated.
Prediction: Goal scored from 1st to 30th minute – Yes
