Betting Tip
Celje lost in Yerevan, but they can still take positives from that match. First, a one-goal deficit is recoverable given the team's attacking output. Second, the Slovenians were the more active side for much of the game.
Celje opened the scoring from the penalty spot in the 22nd minute and then did not allow their opponents to create anything meaningful from open play. The hosts equalised thanks to a superb free-kick from Artur Serobyan. The execution was no worse than Bruno Fernandes. In the second half, the blue and yellows even had more shots at Joao Bravim's goal (10-6). It is logical that Vitor Campelos' team are favourites for the home match: the odds on them have dropped below 1.50. They will also be given confidence by their win over one of their main domestic rivals, Olimpija Ljubljana (1:0).
Ararat-Armenia's win should not be played down, but they achieved the positive result not through dominance or methodical combination play, but thanks to Serobyan's individual quality and a counter-attack also finished with a fine strike by Carlos Henrique. That is a risky route — next time it may not fly in. And the visitors will not be allowed to control the ball. Ararat-Armenia have already got past two opponents, but lost by one goal to both in their away matches. Back then, a two-goal home advantage was enough; this time they do not have that.
Still, one converted shot from 16, and that from the penalty spot, suggests Celje will not manage to secure a comfortable margin. Ararat-Armenia have scored in six consecutive away matches in European competition. So the bet on Ararat-Armenia (+1.5) handicap has a realistic chance of landing.