Odds overview
Northern Ireland to win is available at around 2.36, while the draw and Ukraine to win are both at 3.20. In the main totals market, Under 2.5 goals at 1.48 is a much stronger favourite than Over 2.5 goals at 2.49. Northern Ireland Draw No Bet (0) at 1.64 has shorter odds than Ukraine Draw No Bet (0) at 2.15.
Why Northern Ireland are favourites
Bookmakers make Northern Ireland favourites, offering odds of 2.36 on a home win. A Ukraine win and a draw are both quoted at 3.20.
- Northern Ireland have avoided defeat in 9 of their last 10 UEFA Nations League matches.
- Ukraine have failed to win 3 of their last 4 UEFA Nations League matches.
Form and Line-up Northern Ireland
On 5 October 2026, Northern Ireland drew 0:0 at home to Georgia. Before that, on 2 October, they beat Ukraine 3:0 away. They had also picked up points earlier, drawing 0:0 with Hungary and beating Georgia 1:0. Northern Ireland are the only team in UEFA Nations League qualifying not to have conceded a goal in four rounds of matches.
- Northern Ireland's opponents have scored fewer than 1.5 goals in 9 of their last 10 home UEFA Nations League matches.
- Northern Ireland have had fewer than 5.5 shots on target in their previous 10 competitive matches.
Probable line-up (4-3-3): Pierce Charles, Tom Atcheson, Kieran Brown, Ruairi McConville, Trai Hume, Shea Charles, Ethan Galbraith, Justin Devenny, Patrick Kelly, Jamie Donley, Isaac Price.
Absentees: Conor Bradley, Owen Toal, Daniel Ballard, Jamie McDonnell, Ceadach O'Neill (all injured).
Form and Line-up Ukraine
Ukraine lost their previous match, going down 1:2 to Hungary on 5 October 2026. Earlier, on 2 October, they suffered a heavy 0:3 defeat to Northern Ireland. Before that, however, Ukraine had picked up points — drawing 0:0 with Georgia and edging Hungary 1:0.
- Ukraine have scored fewer than 1.5 goals in 8 of their last 10 UEFA Nations League matches.
- There have been fewer than 7.5 shots on target in each of Ukraine's last 10 competitive matches.
Probable line-up (4-4-2): Anatoliy Trubin, Ilya Krupskyi, Mykola Matvienko, Ilya Zabarnyi, Vitaliy Mikolenko, Yegor Nazaryna, Yegor Yarmolyuk, Oleg Ocheretko, Georgiy Sudakov, Vladyslav Vanat, Igor Krasnopir.
Absentees: Viktor Tsyhankov, Oleksandr Zinchenko, Ruslan Malinovskyi, Alexandr Zubkov (all injured).
Teams' chances
Northern Ireland to win is available at 2.36; the fair odds are 2.48, implying a 40.4% chance. The draw and Ukraine to win are both quoted at 3.20; each has fair odds of 3.36 and a probability of 29.8%.
| Outcome | Average odds | Average fair odds | Fair probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| Northern Ireland win | 2.36 | 2.48 | 40.4% |
| Draw | 3.20 | 3.36 | 29.8% |
| Ukraine win | 3.20 | 3.36 | 29.8% |
Total goals prediction
Under 2.5 goals is offered at 1.48, compared with 2.49 for Over 2.5 goals. At the 2-goal line, the odds are equal: Under 2 goals — 1.87 and Over 2 goals — 1.87. At the 3.5-goal line, Under 3.5 goals is at 1.15 and Over 3.5 goals at 4.55.
| Line | Under | Over |
|---|---|---|
| 2.5 | 1.48 | 2.49 |
| 2 | 1.87 | 1.87 |
| 3.5 | 1.15 | 4.55 |
Handicap prediction
Northern Ireland Draw No Bet (0) at 1.64 has shorter odds than Ukraine Draw No Bet (0) at 2.15.
| Home | Handicap | Away |
|---|---|---|
| 1.64 | 0 | 2.15 |
Double chance forecast
| Bookmaker | 1X | 12 | X2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bet365 |
9/25
|
9/25
|
53/100
|
| William Hill |
7/20
|
9/25
|
57/100
|
| LeoVegas |
9/25
|
19/50
|
53/100
|
Odds are current as of the material publication date
Team total goals prediction
Bookmakers have set the following team goal totals for this match: Northern Ireland — 1 goal; Ukraine — 0.5 goals.
Northern Ireland team total goals
For Northern Ireland, Under 0.5 goals is quoted at 2.85 and Over 0.5 goals at 1.37. Two sets of odds are available at the 1-goal line: Under 1 goal — 1.90 and Over 1 goal — 1.85; and Under 1 goal — 1.55 and Over 1 goal — 2.35.
| Under | Team total | Over |
|---|---|---|
| 2.85 | 0.5 | 1.37 |
| 1.90 | 1 | 1.85 |
| 1.55 | 1 | 2.35 |
Ukraine team total goals
For Ukraine, Under 0.5 goals is offered at 2.41 and Over 0.5 goals at 1.51. Under 1.5 goals is quoted at 1.27, compared with 3.35 for Over 1.5 goals. At the 2-goal line, Under 2 goals is at 1.06 and Over 2 goals at 7.00.
| Under | Team total | Over |
|---|---|---|
| 2.41 | 0.5 | 1.51 |
| 1.27 | 1.5 | 3.35 |
| 1.06 | 2 | 7.00 |
