Odds overview
CA Osasuna are slight favourites: a home win is available at 2.30, while the draw is at 3.35 and an away win at 3.20. In the main totals market, Under 2.5 goals is quoted at around 1.80 and Over 2.5 goals at 2.03. In the main handicap market, CA Osasuna Draw No Bet at 1.65 is markedly more likely than Rayo Vallecano Draw No Bet at 2.20.
Why CA Osasuna are favourites
CA Osasuna to win is available at 2.30, the draw at 3.35 and Rayo Vallecano to win at 3.20.
- Ahead of Matchday 7 in La Liga, both teams have seven points, but the home advantage gives the hosts an initial edge in the bookmakers' eyes.
- Rayo Vallecano have conceded an average of 2.5 goals per game this season, ranking second in La Liga for this metric, which underlines the visitors' defensive vulnerability.
- CA Osasuna come into the match after an away fixture against Atlético Madrid on 16 September, with fewer than 72 hours to recover, increasing the risk of fatigue and possible rotation.
Form and Line-up CA Osasuna
In nine of their last 10 La Liga home matches, CA Osasuna have restricted opponents to no more than four shots on target, while their opponents' xG in the league's pre-match data stands at 0.96 (second-lowest among 20 teams). The team confidently limits opponents' attacking output at El Sadar, but no more than three total goals were recorded in nine of those same matches, contrasting with the open style of their upcoming opponents.
- CA Osasuna scored no more than one goal in eight of their last 10 La Liga home matches.
- In nine of their last 10 La Liga home matches, CA Osasuna had more shots on target than their opponents.
- CA Osasuna registered at least four shots on target in nine of their last 10 La Liga home matches.
Probable CA Osasuna line-up (5-4-1): Aitor Fernández, Iñigo Arguibide, Alejandro Catena, Enzo Boyomo, Unai Santos, Abel Bretones, Jonathan Dubasin, Asier Osambela, Lucas Torró, Raúl Moro, Raúl García
Form and Line-up Rayo Vallecano
Rayo Vallecano had a vulnerable away match against Real Madrid, losing 1:4. Across their last 10 La Liga away matches, they failed to record more shots on target than their opponents on nine occasions, while their opponents' goals-conceded figure in the league's pre-match data reached 2.8 per game (first in La Liga). This open balance forces the visitors into high-scoring scenarios regardless of their opponents' status.
- Over 2.5 goals were scored in five of Rayo Vallecano's six La Liga matches in the 2026/27 season.
- Rayo Vallecano's opponents took at least five corners in nine of their last 10 La Liga matches.
- In nine of their last 10 La Liga away matches, Rayo Vallecano received at least as many yellow cards as their opponents.
Probable Rayo Vallecano line-up (4-2-3-1): Emil Audero, Andrei Rațiu, Mujaid Sadick, Florian Lejeune, Adrià Pedrosa, Pedro Díaz, Pathé Ciss, Heorhiy Tsitaishvili, Unai López, Álvaro García, Sergio Camello
Team chances
The no-margin assessment gives CA Osasuna a 41.6% chance at average odds of 2.30 and fair odds of 2.41. The draw is assessed at 28.5% (3.35; fair odds 3.50), while an away win is at 29.9% (3.20; fair odds 3.35).
| Outcome | Average odds | Average fair odds | No-margin probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| CA Osasuna win | 2.30 | 2.41 | 41.6% |
| Draw | 3.35 | 3.50 | 28.5% |
| Rayo Vallecano win | 3.20 | 3.35 | 29.9% |
Total goals prediction
At the 2.5 line, Under 2.5 goals at 1.80 is preferred to Over 2.5 goals at 2.03. At the 3.5 mark, the edge is even clearer for Under 3.5 goals at 1.30 against Over 3.5 goals at 3.20.
| Line | Under | Over |
|---|---|---|
| 2.5 | 1.80 | 2.03 |
| 3.5 | 1.30 | 3.20 |
Handicap prediction
CA Osasuna (-1.5) at 4.00 is less likely than Rayo Vallecano (-1.5) at 6.30, although both bets are considered unlikely. At the 1.5 handicap, CA Osasuna (+1.5) at 1.07 is slightly preferred to Rayo Vallecano (+1.5) at 1.20. CA Osasuna (-1) is available at 3.25 and Rayo Vallecano (-1) at 5.50; at the 1 line, the odds are 1.10 for CA Osasuna (+1) and 1.30 for Rayo Vallecano (+1). On the zero handicap, CA Osasuna Draw No Bet at 1.65 looks more likely than Rayo Vallecano Draw No Bet at 2.20.
| Home | Handicap | Away |
|---|---|---|
| 4.00 | -1.5 | 6.30 |
| 1.07 | 1.5 | 1.20 |
| 3.25 | -1 | 5.50 |
| 1.10 | 1 | 1.30 |
| 1.65 | 0 | 2.20 |
Both teams to score prediction
Both teams to score — Yes at 1.80 is assessed as slightly more likely than Both teams to score — No at 1.95, meaning the scenario in which at least one team fails to score is quoted slightly longer.
| Both teams to score | Odds |
|---|---|
| Yes | 1.80 |
| No | 1.95 |
Double chance forecast
Odds are current as of the material publication date
Team total prediction
For this match, the bookmakers have set the following team totals: CA Osasuna — 1.5 goals; Rayo Vallecano — 1 goal.
CA Osasuna team total
CA Osasuna team total: Over 0.5 goals at 1.25 is clearly preferred to Under 0.5 goals at 3.65; at the 1 line, Over 1 goal at 1.48 is shorter than Under 1 goal at 2.55. At the 1.5 mark, Under 1.5 goals at 1.62 is quoted as more likely than Over 1.5 goals at 2.20, while at the 2 line, Under 2 goals at 1.25 is substantially shorter than Over 2 goals at 3.60.
| Under | Team total | Over |
|---|---|---|
| 3.65 | 0.5 | 1.25 |
| 2.55 | 1 | 1.48 |
| 1.62 | 1.5 | 2.20 |
| 1.25 | 2 | 3.60 |
Rayo Vallecano team total
Rayo Vallecano team total: Over 0.5 goals at 1.38 is preferred to Under 0.5 goals at 2.80. At the 1 line, the odds are close: Over 1 goal at 1.80 is slightly shorter than Under 1 goal at 1.95. At the 1.5 mark, Under 1.5 goals at 1.37 is clearly more likely than Over 1.5 goals at 2.85.
| Under | Team total | Over |
|---|---|---|
| 2.80 | 0.5 | 1.38 |
| 1.95 | 1 | 1.80 |
| 1.37 | 1.5 | 2.85 |
Who Will Referee the Match
Manuel Jesús Orellana (Spain)
Matches — 25 (La Liga and Segunda División, 2025/26–2026/27);
Average fouls per match — 29;
Average yellow cards per match (including second yellows) — 6.3;
Matches with red cards — 5 of 25;
Matches with penalties — 9 of 25.
