Odds overview
Osasuna are slight favourites: the home win is available at 2.30, while the draw is available at 3.35 and the away win at 3.20. In the main totals market, Under 2.5 goals is quoted at around 1.80 and Over 2.5 goals at 2.03. In the main handicap market, Osasuna Draw No Bet at 1.65 is considerably more likely than Rayo Vallecano Draw No Bet at 2.20.
Why Osasuna are favourites for the match
Osasuna to win is available at 2.30, the draw at 3.35 and Rayo Vallecano to win at 3.20.
- Ahead of Matchday 7 of La Liga, both teams have 7 points, but the home-ground factor gives the hosts an initial advantage in the bookmakers' eyes.
- Rayo Vallecano are conceding an average of 2.5 goals per game this season, ranking second in La Liga by this metric, underlining the visitors' defensive vulnerability.
- Osasuna come into the match after an away fixture against Atletico on 16 September, with fewer than 72 hours to recover, increasing the risk of fatigue and possible rotation.
Form and Line-up Osasuna
In 9 of their last 10 home La Liga matches, Osasuna limited opponents to no more than 4 shots on target, while in the league's pre-match sample their opponents' xG was 0.96 (second-lowest among 20 teams). The team confidently restrict opposition activity at El Sadar, but no more than 3 goals were scored in total in 9 of those same matches, contrasting with the open style of their upcoming opponents.
- Osasuna scored no more than one goal in 8 of their last 10 home La Liga matches.
- In 9 of their last 10 home La Liga matches, Osasuna had more shots on target than their opponents.
- Osasuna registered at least 4 shots on target in 9 of their last 10 home La Liga matches.
Probable Osasuna line-up (5-4-1): Aitor Fernandez, Inigo Arguibide, Alejandro Catena, Enzo Boyomo, Unai Santos, Abel Bretones, Jonathan Dubasin, Asier Osambela, Lucas Torro, Raul Moro, Raul Garcia
Form and Line-up Rayo Vallecano
Rayo Vallecano had a vulnerable away match against Real Madrid, losing 1:4. Across their last 10 away La Liga matches, they failed to have more shots on target than their opponents on 9 occasions, while in the league's pre-match sample their opponents' goals-conceded figure reached 2.8 per game (first in La Liga). This open balance forces the visitors into high-scoring scenarios regardless of the opposition's status.
- More than 2.5 goals were scored in 5 of Rayo Vallecano's 6 matches in the 2026/27 La Liga season.
- Rayo Vallecano's opponents took at least 5 corners in 9 of their last 10 La Liga matches.
- In 9 of their last 10 away La Liga matches, Rayo Vallecano received at least as many yellow cards as their opponents.
Probable Rayo Vallecano line-up (4-2-3-1): Emil Audero, Andrei Ratiu, Mumin Sadiq, Florian Lejeune, Adria Pedrosa, Pedro Diaz, Pathe Ciss, Giorgi Tsitaishvili, Unai Lopez, Alvaro Garcia, Sergio Camello
Team chances
The no-margin estimate gives Osasuna a 41.6% chance at average odds of 2.30 and fair odds of 2.41. The draw is assessed at 28.5% (3.35; 3.50 fair odds), and the away win at 29.9% (3.20; 3.35 fair odds).
| Outcome | Average odds | Average fair odds | No-margin probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| Osasuna win | 2.30 | 2.41 | 41.6% |
| Draw | 3.35 | 3.50 | 28.5% |
| Rayo Vallecano win | 3.20 | 3.35 | 29.9% |
Total goals prediction
At the 2.5 line, Under 2.5 goals at 1.80 is preferred to Over 2.5 goals at 2.03. At the 3.5 line, the advantage is even more pronounced for Under 3.5 goals at 1.30 versus Over 3.5 goals at 3.20.
| Line | Under | Over |
|---|---|---|
| 2.5 | 1.80 | 2.03 |
| 3.5 | 1.30 | 3.20 |
Handicap prediction
Osasuna (-1.5) at 4.00 is considered less likely than Rayo Vallecano (-1.5) at 6.30, although both bets are regarded as unlikely. At the 1.5 handicap, Osasuna (+1.5) at 1.07 is slightly preferred to Rayo Vallecano (+1.5) at 1.20. Osasuna (-1) is available at 3.25 and Rayo Vallecano (-1) at 5.50; at the 1 line, the odds are 1.10 for Osasuna (+1) and 1.30 for Rayo Vallecano (+1). In the Draw No Bet market, Osasuna at 1.65 look more likely than Rayo Vallecano at 2.20.
| Home | Handicap | Away |
|---|---|---|
| 4.00 | -1.5 | 6.30 |
| 1.07 | 1.5 | 1.20 |
| 3.25 | -1 | 5.50 |
| 1.10 | 1 | 1.30 |
| 1.65 | 0 | 2.20 |
Both teams to score prediction
Both teams to score — Yes at 1.80 is considered slightly more likely than Both teams to score — No at 1.95, meaning the scenario with at least one team failing to score is quoted a little longer.
| Both teams to score | Odds |
|---|---|
| Yes | 1.80 |
| No | 1.95 |
Double chance forecast
| Bookmaker | 1X | 12 | X2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bet365 |
9/25
|
33/100
|
57/100
|
| 888sport |
33/100
|
33/100
|
3/5
|
Odds are current as of the material publication date
Team totals prediction
For this match, the bookmakers have set the following team totals: Osasuna — 1.5 goals, Rayo Vallecano — 1 goal.
Osasuna team total
Osasuna team total: Over 0.5 goals at 1.25 is considerably preferred to Under 0.5 goals at 3.65; at the 1-goal line, Over 1 at 1.48 is shorter than Under 1 at 2.55. At the 1.5 line, Under 1.5 at 1.62 is quoted as more likely than Over 1.5 at 2.20, while at the 2-goal line, Under 2 at 1.25 is substantially shorter than Over 2 at 3.60.
| Under | Team total | Over |
|---|---|---|
| 3.65 | 0.5 | 1.25 |
| 2.55 | 1 | 1.48 |
| 1.62 | 1.5 | 2.20 |
| 1.25 | 2 | 3.60 |
Rayo Vallecano team total
Rayo Vallecano team total: Over 0.5 goals at 1.38 is preferred to Under 0.5 goals at 2.80. At the 1-goal line, the odds are close: Over 1 at 1.80 is slightly shorter than Under 1 at 1.95. At the 1.5 line, Under 1.5 at 1.37 is considerably more likely than Over 1.5 at 2.85.
| Under | Team total | Over |
|---|---|---|
| 2.80 | 0.5 | 1.38 |
| 1.95 | 1 | 1.80 |
| 1.37 | 1.5 | 2.85 |
