Odds overview
Paderborn are narrow favourites: a home win is around 2.25, compared with 3.00 for an away win, while the draw is 3.75. Over 2.5 goals is available at 1.60 against 2.35 for Under 2.5, while Paderborn Draw No Bet (0) at 1.65 is favoured over Hamburg Draw No Bet (0) at 2.20.
Why Paderborn are favourites
Bookmakers give the hosts a slight edge: a Paderborn win is offered at 2.25, the draw at 3.75 and a Hamburg win at 3.00.
- Paderborn have been fairly disciplined defensively, conceding an average of 1.5 goals per match in the early stages of the campaign.
- Hamburg's defence looks unsettled: they concede an average of 2.5 goals per game, regularly giving opponents chances.
Form and Line-up Paderborn
Paderborn drew 2:2 with Werder Bremen in the previous round. Stefano Marino and Steffen Tigges gave them a two-goal lead by the 30th minute, but they could not hold on — their opponents drew level in the second half, converting a penalty awarded after Laurin Curda handled the ball. The hosts also remain at the bottom of the league for the quality of chances created: their xG is just 0.97, the lowest in the competition.
Home matches have also proved difficult for Paderborn: they have failed to win 9 of their last 10 Bundesliga games on their own ground.
- Paderborn have scored no more than one goal in 8 of their last 10 Bundesliga home matches.
- There have been more than 8.5 corners in 9 of Paderborn's last 10 Bundesliga home matches.
- Paderborn have been caught offside fewer than 2.5 times in each of their last 10 Bundesliga matches.
Probable line-up (3-5-2): Niklas Noll, Mattes Hansen, Tjark Scheller, Jasper ter Horst, Raphael Obermair, Santiago Castañeda, Laurin Curda, Gabriel Vidović, Laurin Ulrich, Steffen Tigges, Stefano Marino
Form and Line-up Hamburg
Hamburg earned a pragmatic 1:0 win over Stuttgart in their previous match thanks to Miro Muheim's strike in the 88th minute. The visitors lost the corner count 5:9 and allowed their opponents to dictate play for much of the match.
Hamburg have created chances only sporadically: their xG of 1.08 puts them second from bottom in the league's pre-match figures.
- Hamburg have taken fewer than 4.5 corners in 9 of their last 10 Bundesliga away matches.
- Hamburg's opponents have attempted more than 13.5 shots in 9 of their last 10 Bundesliga away matches.
- There have been fewer than 4.5 offsides in each of Hamburg's last 10 Bundesliga matches.
Probable line-up (3-5-2): Daniel Heuer Fernandes, David Møller Wolfe, Warmed Omari, Miro Muheim, Sebastiaan Bornauw, Louis Lemke, Bilal Nadir, Martin Adeline, Fábio Vieira, Nicolás Capaldo, Yussuf Poulsen
The teams' chances
A Paderborn win is offered at 2.25, with fair odds of 2.35 and a probability of 42.6%; for the draw, the figures are 3.75, 3.92 and 25.5%, and for a Hamburg win, 3.00, 3.13 and 31.9%. Paderborn lead the estimates, but Hamburg still have a substantial chance.
| Outcome | Average odds | Average fair odds | Fair probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| Paderborn to win | 2.25 | 2.35 | 42.6% |
| Draw | 3.75 | 3.92 | 25.5% |
| Hamburg to win | 3.00 | 3.13 | 31.9% |
Total goals prediction
Over 2.5 goals is offered at 1.60 against 2.35 for Under 2.5, indicating an expectation of at least three goals. At the 3.5-goal line, Under 3.5 is favoured at 1.55, while Over 3.5 is quoted at 2.35.
| Line | Under | Over |
|---|---|---|
| 2.5 | 2.35 | 1.60 |
| 3.5 | 1.55 | 2.35 |
Handicap prediction
Paderborn (-1.5) are available at 3.80 and Hamburg (-1.5) at 4.70; at the +1.5 line, Paderborn (+1.5) have shorter odds of 1.14 than Hamburg (+1.5) at 1.22. For the -1 handicap, the odds are 3.15 for Paderborn (-1) and 4.10 for Hamburg (-1); for the +1 handicap, they are 1.18 and 1.30 respectively. At a handicap of 0, Paderborn Draw No Bet (0) at 1.65 are favoured over Hamburg Draw No Bet (0) at 2.20.
| Home | Handicap | Away |
|---|---|---|
| 3.80 | -1.5 | 4.70 |
| 1.14 | 1.5 | 1.22 |
| 3.15 | -1 | 4.10 |
| 1.18 | 1 | 1.30 |
| 1.65 | 0 | 2.20 |
Both teams to score prediction
Both teams to score — Yes is offered at 1.50, while Both teams to score — No is 2.50: the market considers goals from both teams more likely than at least one team failing to score.
| Both teams to score | Odds |
|---|---|
| Yes | 1.50 |
| No | 2.50 |
Double chance forecast
| Bookmaker | 1X | 12 | X2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bet365 |
9/25
|
1/4
|
67/100
|
| 888sport |
2/5
|
1/4
|
13/20
|
Odds are current as of the material publication date
Team total goals prediction
Bookmakers have set the following team goal totals for this match: Paderborn — 1.5 goals; Hamburg — 1.5 goals.
Paderborn team total goals
Paderborn team total goals: Over 0.5 is offered at 1.14 against 4.60 for Under 0.5, while Over 1 is 1.30 against 3.25 for Under 1. At the 1.5-goal line, the odds are almost equal: Under 1.5 is 1.88 and Over 1.5 is 1.87. At the 2-goal line, Under 2 is favoured at 1.37, while Over 2 is quoted at 2.85.
| Under | Team total | Over |
|---|---|---|
| 4.60 | 0.5 | 1.14 |
| 3.25 | 1 | 1.30 |
| 1.88 | 1.5 | 1.87 |
| 1.37 | 2 | 2.85 |
Hamburg team total goals
Hamburg team total goals: Over 0.5 is offered at 1.23 against 3.70 for Under 0.5, while Over 1 is 1.50 against 2.50 for Under 1. At the 1.5-goal line, Under 1.5 has shorter odds of 1.63, while Over 1.5 is 2.20. At the 2-goal line, Under 2 is available at 1.25 against 3.55 for Over 2.
| Under | Team total | Over |
|---|---|---|
| 3.70 | 0.5 | 1.23 |
| 2.50 | 1 | 1.50 |
| 1.63 | 1.5 | 2.20 |
| 1.25 | 2 | 3.55 |
