Odds overview
Stuttgart are clear favourites — a Stuttgart win is available at 1.58, while a Paderborn win and a draw are quoted at around 4.90 and 4.70 respectively. In the main totals market, Over 2.5 goals at 1.35 is much shorter than Under 2.5 at 2.90. The handicap (0) market also favours the visitors, with Stuttgart at 1.25 against Paderborn at 3.55.
Why Stuttgart are favourites
Bookmakers give the visitors a clear advantage: a Stuttgart win is offered at 1.58, a draw at 4.70 and a Paderborn win at 4.90.
- The hosts come into the match on a difficult home run in the Bundesliga: Paderborn have failed to win 9 of their last 10 matches on their own ground.
- Stuttgart's away matches, meanwhile, have consistently produced goals: each of their last 10 league away games has featured more than two goals.
Form and Line-up Paderborn
In Matchday 4 of the Bundesliga, Paderborn beat Hoffenheim 3:1 at home, scoring twice before half-time and adding a third goal in the second half to seal the win.
Despite that win, the team's attacking output remains modest. Paderborn have managed no more than five shots on target in 9 of their last 10 league matches.
- Paderborn have scored fewer than 1.5 goals in 8 of their last 10 Bundesliga home matches.
- More than 8.5 corners have been recorded in 9 of Paderborn's last 10 Bundesliga home matches.
- Paderborn have received more than 1.5 yellow cards in 9 of their last 10 Bundesliga home matches.
Probable Paderborn line-up (3-3-2-2): Nahuel Noll, Jano ter Horst, Tjark Scheller, Mattes Hansen, Laurin Curda, Raphael Obermair, Laurin Ulrich, Santiago Castañeda, Gabriel Vidovic, Stefano Marino, Marvin Pieringer
Form and Line-up Stuttgart
Stuttgart lost 0:1 at home to Borussia Dortmund in the previous round. It was an even match, but the hosts lacked accuracy in the final third.
Midfielder Nikolas Nartey also returned from injury in that match, having been sidelined since August. Stuttgart's away games are high tempo too: the total number of shots on target has exceeded 9.5 in their last 10 Bundesliga away matches.
- Stuttgart's opponents have scored more than 1.5 goals in 9 of their last 10 Bundesliga away matches.
- More than 8.5 corners have been recorded in 9 of Stuttgart's last 10 Bundesliga matches.
- Stuttgart's opponents have received fewer than 2.5 yellow cards in 9 of their last 10 Bundesliga away matches.
Probable Stuttgart line-up (3-4-2-1): Fabian Bredlow, Josha Vagnoman, Maximilian Mittelstadt, Jeff Chabot, Finn Jeltsch, Angelo Stiller, Chris Führich, Bilal El Khannouss, Grischa Prömel, Ermedin Demirović, Deniz Undav
The teams' chances
The margin-free estimate gives Paderborn a 19.4% chance of winning, with average odds of 4.90 and fair odds of 5.14. A draw has a 20.3% chance, with average odds of 4.70 and fair odds of 4.93. Stuttgart have a 60.3% chance of winning: their average odds are 1.58 and their fair odds are 1.66.
| Outcome | Average odds | Average fair odds | Margin-free probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| Paderborn win | 4.90 | 5.14 | 19.4% |
| Draw | 4.70 | 4.93 | 20.3% |
| Stuttgart win | 1.58 | 1.66 | 60.3% |
Total goals prediction
At the 2.5-goal line, Over at 1.35 is much more likely than Under at 2.90. At 3.5 goals, the odds are almost even: Under is 1.88 and Over is 1.92.
| Line | Under | Over |
|---|---|---|
| 2.5 | 2.90 | 1.35 |
| 3.5 | 1.88 | 1.92 |
Handicap prediction
Paderborn (-1.5) are offered at 7.70, and Stuttgart (-1.5) at 2.35. At the +1.5 handicap line, the odds are 1.57 for Paderborn (+1.5) and 1.04 for Stuttgart (+1.5). At -1, Paderborn (-1) are 6.70 and Stuttgart (-1) are 1.90; at +1, Paderborn (+1) are 1.90 and Stuttgart (+1) are 1.06. The handicap (0) market also strongly favours the visitors: Paderborn (0) are 3.55 and Stuttgart (0) are 1.25.
| Home | Handicap | Away |
|---|---|---|
| 7.70 | -1.5 | 2.35 |
| 1.57 | 1.5 | 1.04 |
| 6.70 | -1 | 1.90 |
| 1.90 | 1 | 1.06 |
| 3.55 | 0 | 1.25 |
Both teams to score prediction
Both teams to score — Yes is offered at 1.45 and looks more likely than Both teams to score — No at 2.65, which means at least one team will fail to score.
| Both teams to score | Odds |
|---|---|
| Yes | 1.45 |
| No | 2.65 |
Double chance forecast
Odds are current as of the material publication date
Team total goals prediction
Bookmakers have set the following team goal totals for this match: Paderborn — 1 goal; Stuttgart — 2 goals.
Paderborn team total goals
Paderborn team total: Under 0.5 is 3.00 and Over 0.5 is 1.35. At the 1-goal line, Under is 1.98 and Over is 1.78; at 1.5, Under is 1.42 and Over is 2.65. The market expects at least one goal from the hosts but gives a more cautious assessment of two or more.
| Under | Team total | Over |
|---|---|---|
| 3.00 | 0.5 | 1.35 |
| 1.98 | 1 | 1.78 |
| 1.42 | 1.5 | 2.65 |
Stuttgart team total goals
Stuttgart team total: Under 0.5 is quoted at 7.30 and Over 0.5 at 1.05. At the 1.5-goal line, Under is 2.65 and Over is 1.45; at 2, they are 2.05 and 1.72 respectively; at 2.5, they are 1.63 and 2.20. The odds point to a high likelihood of at least two goals from the visitors, but do not strongly favour them scoring more than 2.5.
| Under | Team total | Over |
|---|---|---|
| 7.30 | 0.5 | 1.05 |
| 2.65 | 1.5 | 1.45 |
| 2.05 | 2 | 1.72 |
| 1.63 | 2.5 | 2.20 |
Who Will Referee the Match
Felix Zwayer (Germany)
Matches — 19 (Bundesliga, 2025/26–2026/27);
Average fouls per match — 21;
Average yellow cards per match (including second yellows) — 4.3;
Matches with a red card — 3 out of 19;
Matches with a penalty — 6 out of 19.
