Odds overview
Stuttgart are clear favourites to win at 1.58, while a Paderborn win and a draw are available at around 4.90 and 4.70 respectively. In the main totals market, Over 2.5 goals at 1.35 is favoured over Under 2.5 goals at 2.90. The Draw No Bet market also favours the visitors, with Stuttgart (0) at 1.25 against Paderborn (0) at 3.55.
Why Stuttgart are favourites
Bookmakers strongly favour the visitors: a Stuttgart win is available at 1.58, a draw at 4.70 and a Paderborn win at 4.90.
- The hosts come into the match on a difficult home run in the Bundesliga: Paderborn have failed to win 9 of their last 10 matches on their own ground.
- Stuttgart's away matches, meanwhile, have consistently produced goals: more than two goals have been scored in each of their last 10 league away games.
Form and Line-up Paderborn
In Bundesliga Matchday 4, Paderborn beat Hoffenheim 3:1 at home, scoring twice before half-time and adding a third goal in the second half to seal the win.
Despite that win, the team's attacking threat remains modest. Paderborn have had no more than five shots on target in 9 of their last 10 league matches.
- Paderborn have scored fewer than 1.5 goals in 8 of their last 10 Bundesliga home matches.
- More than 8.5 corners have been awarded in 9 of Paderborn's last 10 Bundesliga home matches.
- Paderborn have received more than 1.5 yellow cards in 9 of their last 10 Bundesliga home matches.
Probable Paderborn line-up (3-3-2-2): Nahuel Noll, Jano ter Horst, Tjark Scheller, Mattes Hansen, Laurin Curda, Raphael Obermair, Laurin Ulrich, Santiago Castañeda, Gabriel Vidovic, Stefano Marino, Marvin Pieringer
Form and Line-up Stuttgart
Stuttgart lost 0:1 at home to Borussia Dortmund in the previous round. It was an even game in which the hosts lacked precision in the final third.
Midfielder Nikolas Nartey returned from injury in the same match, having been sidelined since August. Stuttgart's away games have also been played at a high tempo: the combined shots-on-target total has exceeded 9.5 in their last 10 Bundesliga away matches.
- Stuttgart's opponents have scored more than 1.5 goals in 9 of the club's last 10 Bundesliga away matches.
- More than 8.5 corners have been awarded in 9 of Stuttgart's last 10 Bundesliga matches.
- Stuttgart's opponents have received fewer than 2.5 yellow cards in 9 of the club's last 10 Bundesliga away matches.
Probable Stuttgart line-up (3-4-2-1): Fabian Bredlow, Josha Vagnoman, Maximilian Mittelstadt, Jeff Chabot, Finn Jeltsch, Angelo Stiller, Chris Führich, Bilal El Khannouss, Grischa Prömel, Ermedin Demirović, Deniz Undav
The teams' chances
The margin-free estimate gives Paderborn a 19.4% chance of winning, with average odds of 4.90 and fair odds of 5.14. A draw has a 20.3% chance, with average odds of 4.70 and fair odds of 4.93. Stuttgart have a 60.3% chance of winning, with average odds of 1.58 and fair odds of 1.66.
| Outcome | Average odds | Average fair odds | Margin-free probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| Paderborn win | 4.90 | 5.14 | 19.4% |
| Draw | 4.70 | 4.93 | 20.3% |
| Stuttgart win | 1.58 | 1.66 | 60.3% |
Total goals
At the 2.5-goal line, Over 2.5 at 1.35 is considered much likelier than Under 2.5 at 2.90. At 3.5 goals, the odds are almost equal: Under 3.5 is 1.88 and Over 3.5 is 1.92.
| Goal line | Under | Over |
|---|---|---|
| 2.5 | 2.90 | 1.35 |
| 3.5 | 1.88 | 1.92 |
Handicap betting
Paderborn (-1.5) are available at 7.70 and Stuttgart (-1.5) at 2.35. At the 1.5 handicap line, Paderborn (+1.5) are 1.57 and Stuttgart (+1.5) are 1.04. At -1, Paderborn (-1) are 6.70 and Stuttgart (-1) are 1.90; at +1, Paderborn (+1) are 1.90 and Stuttgart (+1) are 1.06. The Draw No Bet options also strongly favour the visitors: Paderborn (0) are 3.55 and Stuttgart (0) are 1.25.
| Home | Handicap | Away |
|---|---|---|
| 7.70 | -1.5 | 2.35 |
| 1.57 | 1.5 | 1.04 |
| 6.70 | -1 | 1.90 |
| 1.90 | 1 | 1.06 |
| 3.55 | 0 | 1.25 |
Both teams to score
Both teams to score — Yes is available at 1.45 and looks likelier than Both teams to score — No at 2.65, which means at least one team will fail to score.
| Both teams to score | Odds |
|---|---|
| Yes | 1.45 |
| No | 2.65 |
Double chance forecast
| Bookmaker | 1X | 12 | X2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bet365 |
13/10
|
9/50
|
17/100
|
| 888sport |
6/5
|
11/50
|
1/5
|
Odds are current as of the material publication date
Team goal totals
For this match, bookmakers have set the following team goal totals: 1 goal for Paderborn and 2 goals for Stuttgart.
Paderborn team goal total
For Paderborn's team goal total, Under 0.5 is 3.00 and Over 0.5 is 1.35. At 1 goal, Under is 1.98 and Over is 1.78; at 1.5 goals, Under is 1.42 and Over is 2.65. The market expects the hosts to score at least once but is less confident about two or more goals.
| Under | Team goal total | Over |
|---|---|---|
| 3.00 | 0.5 | 1.35 |
| 1.98 | 1 | 1.78 |
| 1.42 | 1.5 | 2.65 |
Stuttgart team goal total
For Stuttgart's team goal total, Under 0.5 is available at 7.30 and Over 0.5 at 1.05. At 1.5 goals, Under is 2.65 and Over is 1.45; at 2 goals, the respective odds are 2.05 and 1.72; at 2.5 goals, they are 1.63 and 2.20. The odds suggest a strong chance of at least two goals from the visitors, but give less support to them scoring more than 2.5.
| Under | Team goal total | Over |
|---|---|---|
| 7.30 | 0.5 | 1.05 |
| 2.65 | 1.5 | 1.45 |
| 2.05 | 2 | 1.72 |
| 1.63 | 2.5 | 2.20 |
