Odds overview
Palmeiras are the favourites: a Palmeiras win is available at around 1.80, while a draw and a Fluminense win are 3.40 and 3.80 respectively. In the main totals market, Under 2.5 goals at 1.68 is shorter than Over 2.5 goals at 2.05. On the 0 handicap, Palmeiras at 1.40 are markedly shorter than Fluminense at 2.75.
Why Palmeiras are favourites
The bookmakers favour the hosts: a Palmeiras win is offered at 1.80, a draw at 3.40 and a Fluminense win at 3.80.
- The hosts take a lead into the second leg after winning the first semi-final 2:1.
- Palmeiras went top of Serie A with a 2:0 win over Athletico Paranaense, while Fluminense lost 1:2 to Santos before this away trip.
Form and Line-up Palmeiras
Palmeiras average 1.85 expected goals per game, the second-highest figure in the competition.
- Palmeiras have conceded no more than one goal in their last 10 home matches in the Copa Libertadores.
- Palmeiras' opponents have managed no more than three shots on target in nine of their last 10 home matches in the Copa Libertadores.
- Fewer than four goals have been scored in eight of Palmeiras' last 10 matches across all competitions.
Probable line-up (3-5-2): Carlos Miguel, Murilo, Gustavo Gomez, Alexander Barboza, Agustín Giay, Marlon Freitas, Lucas Evangelista, Andreas Pereira, Joaquín Piquerez, Jhon Arias, José Manuel López.
Vitor Roque is doubtful with an ankle injury.
Form and Line-up Fluminense
Fluminense's matches feature few corners — an average of 7.73 per game, the third-lowest figure in the league. The team have failed to win the offside count in 10 consecutive away matches in the Copa Libertadores.
- Fluminense have scored fewer than two goals in each of their last 10 away matches in the Copa Libertadores.
- Fluminense have managed no more than four shots on target in eight of their last 10 away matches in the Copa Libertadores.
- Fewer than five goals have been scored in nine of Fluminense's last 10 matches across all competitions.
Probable line-up: Fábio, Samuel Xavier, Ignacio, Igor Rabello, René, Hércules, Nonato, Luciano Acosta, Agustín Canobbio, Yeferson Soteldo, Rodrigo Castillo.
The teams' chances
A Palmeiras win is offered at 1.80, with fair odds of 2.00 and a fair probability of 49.9%. A draw is 3.40, with fair odds of 3.78 and a probability of 26.4%; the corresponding figures for a Fluminense win are 3.80, 4.23 and 23.6%.
| Outcome | Average odds | Average fair odds | Fair probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| Palmeiras (SP) to win | 1.80 | 2.00 | 49.9% |
| Draw | 3.40 | 3.78 | 26.4% |
| Fluminense (RJ) to win | 3.80 | 4.23 | 23.6% |
Total goals betting
At the 2.5-goal line, Under 2.5 goals at 1.68 is shorter than Over 2.5 goals at 2.05. At the 2-goal line, Over 2 goals at 1.55 is favoured over Under 2 goals at 2.25. At 3.5 goals, Under 3.5 goals at 1.22 is the clear favourite, while Over 3.5 goals is available at 3.85.
| Line | Under | Over |
|---|---|---|
| 2.5 | 1.68 | 2.05 |
| 2 | 2.25 | 1.55 |
| 3.5 | 1.22 | 3.85 |
Handicap betting
Palmeiras (-1.5) are 3.60, while Fluminense (-1.5) are 8.00. At the +1.5 handicap, Palmeiras (+1.5) at 1.04 are shorter than Fluminense (+1.5) at 1.22; at -1, Palmeiras (-1) are 2.80 against Fluminense (-1) at 7.00. At +1, the odds are 1.05 for Palmeiras (+1) and 1.38 for Fluminense (+1), while at 0 they are 1.40 for Palmeiras (0) and 2.75 for Fluminense (0).
| Home | Handicap | Away |
|---|---|---|
| 3.60 | -1.5 | 8.00 |
| 1.04 | 1.5 | 1.22 |
| 2.80 | -1 | 7.00 |
| 1.05 | 1 | 1.38 |
| 1.40 | 0 | 2.75 |
Both teams to score betting
Both teams to score — No is shorter at 1.80 than Both teams to score — Yes at 1.90, so the market slightly favours at least one team failing to score.
| Both teams to score | Odds |
|---|---|
| Yes | 1.90 |
| No | 1.80 |
Double chance forecast
| Bookmaker | 1X | 12 | X2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bet365 |
7/50
|
29/100
|
11/10
|
| William Hill |
7/50
|
3/10
|
11/10
|
Odds are current as of the material publication date
Team goals betting
For this match, the bookmakers have set the following team goal lines: Palmeiras at 1.5 goals and Fluminense at 0.5 goals.
Palmeiras team goals
For Palmeiras team goals, Under 0.5 is 4.00 and Over 0.5 is 1.20; at the 1-goal line, the respective odds are 2.70 and 1.40. At 1.5 goals, Under 1.5 at 1.65 is shorter than Over 1.5 at 2.10, while at the 2-goal line Under 2 is 1.25 against Over 2 at 3.50.
| Under | Team goals | Over |
|---|---|---|
| 4.00 | 0.5 | 1.20 |
| 2.70 | 1 | 1.40 |
| 1.65 | 1.5 | 2.10 |
| 1.25 | 2 | 3.50 |
Fluminense team goals
For Fluminense team goals, Under 0.5 is 2.30 and Over 0.5 is 1.55. At the 1-goal line, Under 1 is 1.52 against Over 1 at 2.35; at 1.5 goals, Under 1.5 is 1.25 and Over 1.5 is 3.60.
| Under | Team goals | Over |
|---|---|---|
| 2.30 | 0.5 | 1.55 |
| 1.52 | 1 | 2.35 |
| 1.25 | 1.5 | 3.60 |
