Why Partizan Are Favourites for the Match
1.38 on the hosts against 8.50 on the visitors — this is not an assessment of form, but an assessment of resources. The bookmakers are factoring in that Tobol will play in Belgrade to hold on, not to impose themselves, and that if the resistance is even, class will still decide it.
Home advantage. The Serbian side play the first leg at home, where Partizan traditionally try to settle the tie early.
Squad quality. The hosts have rotation options in every line: Senegalese Demba Seck with 45 Serie A appearances, Ivorian Chaka Traore from the Milan system, Austrian Erik Kojzek and Milan Aleksic, on loan from Sunderland. Tobol have exactly one out-and-out striker in their European squad.
Coach and direction. Sasa Ilic took over the team in the summer and was given carte blanche to rejuvenate the squad. The club's management have publicly tied their future to reaching the UEFA Conference League — nobody will be working at half pace here.
European experience. Partizan are 27-time Serbian champions, 1966 European Cup finalists and have played in the UEFA Conference League Round of 16. Tobol have never once made it through qualifying to the main stage in their history.
The visitors' physical condition. Tobol lost to the league leaders in Shymkent on 2 August (0:2), after which they headed to Belgrade across three time zones. The hosts played at home in that period.
Form and Line-up Partizan
The club changed coach in the summer: Sasa Ilic, a man with hundreds of appearances for Partizan in the past, took charge. He immediately moved to rejuvenate the squad, and the start in the SuperLiga has been uneven. In the first round, there was a 2:2 draw with Zemun, with the opposition rescuing themselves in the 93rd minute. Then came a confident away win over Macva (3:1). And on 2 August, a 1:2 home defeat to IMT.
Things have been steadier in Europe. Luxembourg's UNA Strassen were dealt with without nerves: 4:0 at home and 1:0 away. Both games showed the same thing — Partizan are comfortable in possession and can calmly manage a favourable scoreline.
The main personnel loss is captain Vanja Dragojevic, who has moved to Rangers. The holding-midfield role is covered depending on the situation: against UNA Strassen, 19-year-old Nigerian Samson Nwulu started there, while against IMT, Ilic restored Aleks Zekovic to the starting XI. Experience in the squad is selective: 36-year-old defender Stefan Mitrovic with 184 appearances in top leagues, 35-year-old goalkeeper Marko Milosevic and Demba Seck.
The system is a 4-3-3 with a high line and plenty of possession. The strong point is the flanks and the full-backs joining attacks. The weakness is defending transitions: the young centre-backs make mistakes under pressure, and the match against IMT showed that.
Key numbers for Partizan:
In UEFA Conference League qualifying, the team have not conceded once — 5:0 on aggregate against UNA Strassen.
4 points from 9 at the start of the SuperLiga: 1 win, 1 draw, 1 defeat.
Partizan have not reached the main stage of European competition since the 2022/23 season, when they were knocked out by Sheriff in the UEFA Conference League knockout play-off round.
Probable line-up (4-3-3): Milos Krunic — Milan Roganovic, Stefan Milic, Nikola Simic, Vukasin Djurdjevic — Aleks Zekovic, Milan Aleksic, Ognjen Ugresic — Nemanja Trifunovic, Erik Kojzek, Zubairu Ibrahim.
Doubtful: Samson Nwulu — asked to be substituted in the match against UNA Strassen, but Sasa Ilic said it was only cramp.
Form and Line-up Tobol
The season in Kazakhstan has been difficult for Miroslav Romashchenko's team. The Kostanay side are in the lower half of the table, regularly drop points against direct rivals and reached European competition not through the league, but thanks to winning the Kazakhstan Cup. On 2 August, Tobol lost in Shymkent to Ordabasy, while a week earlier they edged past Atyrau at home (1:0). They therefore have competitive rhythm, but it fluctuates from match to match.
In qualifying, though, the team showed character. Against Lithuanian side Panevezys there were two mirror-image matches, and Tobol snatched their place only in the penalty shoot-out. For the club, this is a meaningful step: previously, the Kostanay side had gone no further in Europe than the UEFA Conference League knockout play-off round, where they lost to Viktoria Plzen.
The style is a compact low block, quick exits through the flanks and a focus on set pieces. The strong point is discipline without the ball and the goalkeeping department, where Romashchenko trusts Danil Ustimenko. The weakness is attack: their European squad lists only one out-and-out striker, Serbian Uros Milovanovic, a product of the OFK academy. He has played against Partizan four times in Serbia and scored two goals.
The squad is international: Montenegrins Nemanja Cavnic and Marko Vukcevic, Frenchman Pape-Alioune Ndiaye, Croatian Antonio Borsic, Moroccan Amine Talal, Venezuelan Luis Guerra, Ghanaian Abdoulaye Cisse and Belarusian Maksim Myakish. Cisse played two seasons in Serbia for Novi Pazar and faced Partizan three times, earning one win. The club's most valuable asset is winger Islam Chesnokov.
Key numbers for Tobol:
After 20 rounds of the Kazakhstan Premier League — 10th place, 22 points and a goal difference of 21:28.
Their place in the third round was earned in a penalty shoot-out (3:2) after 2 draws in normal time.
Tobol have never reached the main stage of European competition through qualifying in their entire history.
Probable line-up (4-2-3-1): Danil Ustimenko — Nauryzbek Zhagorov, Rayan Senhadji, Pape-Alioune Ndiaye, Antonio Borsic — Askhat Tagybergen, Maksim Myakish — Islam Chesnokov, Amine Talal, Aleksandr Zuev — Uros Milovanovic.
Absentees: —.
Who Will Referee the Match
Antonio Nobre (Portugal)
Matches – 7 (international fixtures, 2025–2026);
Average fouls per match – 22;
Average yellow cards per match (including second yellows) – 3.6;
Matches with red cards – 2 out of 7;
Matches with penalties – 3 out of 7.
