Odds overview
Poland are clear favourites: a Poland win is available at 1.58, compared with 4.15 for a draw and 5.80 for a Romania win. In the main totals market, Over 2.5 goals at 1.83 has slightly shorter odds than Under 2.5 goals at 1.97. For the main handicap, Romania (+1) at 1.85 is rated slightly more likely than Poland (-1) at 1.95.
Why Poland are favourites
Bookmakers favour the hosts: a Poland win is offered at 1.58, a draw at 4.15 and a Romania win at 5.80.
- Romania come into the match on a run of two defeats in September's UEFA Nations League fixtures, losing to Sweden (1:2) and Bosnia and Herzegovina (2:4).
- Poland have shown more consistent form at home, including a draw with Bosnia and Herzegovina (0:0).
- Poland have beaten Romania in three consecutive matches.
Form and Line-up Poland
Poland have made a poor start to the UEFA Nations League, first drawing 0:0 with Bosnia and Herzegovina and then losing 1:3 to Sweden, with Sebastian Szymański scoring their only goal. At home, however, Poland look confident and have lost only once in their last 10 matches.
- Fewer than 3.5 goals have been scored in 8 of Poland's last 10 home UEFA Nations League matches.
- Poland have taken fewer than 4.5 corners in 9 of their last 10 UEFA Nations League matches.
- More than 3.5 yellow cards have been shown in 9 of Poland's last 10 UEFA Nations League matches.
Probable line-up (3-4-3): Marcin Bulka, Jakub Kiwior, Przemyslaw Wisniewski, Jan Bednarek, Matty Cash, Viktor Novak, Piotr Zieliński, Tymoteusz Puchacz, Sebastian Szymański, Mateusz Żukowski, Nicola Zalewski.
Unavailable: Filip Rózga, Adrian Benedyczak and Kamil Grabara (all injured); Jakub Kamiński (doubtful).
Form and Line-up Romania
Romania have made a poor start to the UEFA Nations League, losing to Sweden (1:2) and Bosnia and Herzegovina (2:4). Gheorghe Hagi's side lost both matches but did not look helpless. Across the two games, Romania had five shots on target and scored with three of them, despite creating just 1.45 xG.
- Romania have conceded in 8 consecutive matches.
- Romania have taken fewer than 4.5 corners in 8 of their last 10 away UEFA Nations League matches.
- Romania have received fewer than 2.5 yellow cards in 8 of their last 10 away UEFA Nations League matches.
Probable line-up (4-4-2): Ionuț Radu, Andrei Coubiș, Matei Ilie, Andrei Burca, Lisav Eissat, Darius Olaru, Vladimir Screciu, Vlad Dragomir, Nicolae Stanciu, Daniel Bîrligea, Valentin Mihăilă.
The teams' chances
A Poland win is offered at 1.58, with fair odds of 1.65 and a probability of 60.5%. The draw is listed at 4.15, with fair odds of 4.34 and a probability of 23.0%; a Romania win is quoted at 5.80, with fair odds of 6.07 and a probability of 16.5%.
| Outcome | Average odds | Average fair odds | Fair probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| Poland win | 1.58 | 1.65 | 60.5% |
| Draw | 4.15 | 4.34 | 23.0% |
| Romania win | 5.80 | 6.07 | 16.5% |
Total goals prediction
On the 2.5-goal line, Under 2.5 is available at 1.97 and Over 2.5 at 1.83, giving the over a slight edge. On the 3.5-goal line, Under 3.5 at 1.38 has much shorter odds than Over 3.5 at 2.80.
| Line | Under | Over |
|---|---|---|
| 2.5 | 1.97 | 1.83 |
| 3.5 | 1.38 | 2.80 |
Handicap prediction
Poland (-1.5) at 2.50 has longer odds than Romania (+1.5) at 1.50. Between Poland (-1) at 1.95 and Romania (+1) at 1.85, the visitors' option is slightly shorter. With a zero handicap, Poland (0) at 1.20 has much shorter odds than Romania (0) at 4.15.
| Home | Handicap | Away |
|---|---|---|
| 2.50 | -1.5 | |
| 1.5 | 1.50 | |
| 1.95 | -1 | |
| 1 | 1.85 | |
| 1.20 | 0 | 4.15 |
Both teams to score prediction
Both teams to score — Yes is offered at 1.85 and Both teams to score — No at 1.90; the odds are almost equal, with a marginal edge for both teams scoring.
| Both teams to score | Odds |
|---|---|
| Yes | 1.85 |
| No | 1.90 |
Double chance forecast
| Bookmaker | 1X | 12 | X2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bet365 |
7/50
|
11/50
|
69/50
|
| William Hill |
9/50
|
11/50
|
5/4
|
| 888sport |
3/25
|
11/50
|
3/2
|
Odds are current as of the material publication date
Team total goals prediction
Bookmakers have set the following team goal totals for this match: Poland — 1.5 goals; Romania — 0.5 goals.
Poland team total goals
Poland team goals: Under 0.5 is available at 5.70 and Over 0.5 at 1.09; Under 1 is offered at 4.15 and Over 1 at 1.17. At 1.5 goals, Under 1.5 at 2.10 has longer odds than Over 1.5 at 1.70, while on the 2-goal line, Under 2 at 1.60 is shorter than Over 2 at 2.25.
| Under | Team total | Over |
|---|---|---|
| 5.70 | 0.5 | 1.09 |
| 4.15 | 1 | 1.17 |
| 2.10 | 1.5 | 1.70 |
| 1.60 | 2 | 2.25 |
Romania team total goals
Romania team goals: Under 0.5 at 2.20 has longer odds than Over 0.5 at 1.63. On the 1-goal line, Under 1 is quoted at 1.47 against 2.60 for Over 1, while Under 1.5 at 1.22 is much shorter than Over 1.5 at 3.80.
| Under | Team total | Over |
|---|---|---|
| 2.20 | 0.5 | 1.63 |
| 1.47 | 1 | 2.60 |
| 1.22 | 1.5 | 3.80 |
Who Will Referee the Match
Urs Schnyder (Switzerland)
Matches — 9 (international fixtures, 2025/26–2026/27);
Average fouls per match — 25;
Average yellow cards per match (including second yellow cards) — 4;
Matches with a red card — 0 of 9;
Matches with a penalty — 5 of 9.
Marcin Bułka
Jakub Piotr Kiwior
Nicola Zalewski
Przemysław Adam Frankowski
Wiktor Nowak
Karol Świderski
Robert Lewandowski
Mateusz Kochalski
Sławomir Abramowicz
Tymoteusz Puchacz
Kacper Potulski
Tomasz Karol Kędziora
Kacper Urbański
Bartosz Slisz
Mateusz Żukowski
Marcel Reguła
Michał Krzysztof Skóraś
Ottó Hindrich
Andrei Florin Rațiu
Nicușor Silviu Bancu
Radu Matei Drăgușin
Virgil Ghiță
Ianis Hagi
Mihai Valentin Mihăilă
Răzvan Gabriel Marin
Dennis Man
George Daniel Bîrligea
Ionuț Andrei Radu
Valentin Cojocaru
Andrei Borza
Andrei Coubiș
Anthony Joseph Patrick Strata
Bogdan Racovițan
Cătălin Ionuț Cîrjan
Florin Lucian Tănase
Marius Mihai Marin
Nicolae Claudiu Stanciu
