Odds overview
Portu are clear favourites, with a home win available at around 1.65, while both the draw and a PSV win are at 4.60. In the main totals market, Over 2.5 goals at 1.55 is much shorter than Under 2.5 goals at 2.35. For a handicap of 0, Portu (0) at 1.28 are shorter than PSV (0) at 3.35.
Why Portu are favourites
A Portu win is available at odds of 1.65, while both the draw and a PSV win are offered at 4.60.
- The visitors arrive after a 1:2 defeat to ADO Den Haag, and injuries to forwards have left PSV’s squad notably depleted.
- Over 8.5 shots on target was recorded in 8 of Portu’s last 10 home Champions League matches.
Form and Line-up Portu
Portu lost 2:3 to Real Betis in the previous Champions League round, conceding a penalty in the 84th minute that cost them a draw.
After two matches, the Portuguese side are 30th in the Champions League table without a point.
With an average of 1 goal per Champions League match, the team rank third from bottom.
- Portu have scored at least two goals in 9 of their last 10 matches in all competitions.
- At least two goals have been scored in each of Portu’s last 10 matches in all competitions.
- Portu committed fewer than 12.5 fouls in 9 of their last 10 home Champions League matches.
Probable line-up (4-3-3): Diogo Costa, Martim Fernandes, Pablo Rosario, Jakub Kiwior, Francisco Moura, Victor Froholdt, Alan Varela, Gabri Veiga, Borja Sainz, André Silva, Pepe.
Form and Line-up PSV
Peter Bosz acknowledged that the absence of a recognised centre-forward makes it harder to get players into the opposition penalty area. PSV are 26th in the league phase table, having taken one point from their opening two matches.
The Dutch club have not had more shots on target than their opponents in any of their last 10 away Champions League matches.
- PSV’s opponents have scored no more than one goal in 8 of their last 10 matches in all competitions.
- PSV committed fewer than 12.5 fouls in each of their last 10 away Champions League matches.
- At least two goals have been scored in 9 of PSV’s last 10 matches in all competitions.
Probable line-up (4-2-3-1): Matěj Kovář, Sergino Dest, Lutsharel Geertruida, Armando Obispo, Filip Kostić, Mauro Júnior, Kodai Sano, Dennis Man, Guus Til, Ayoni Santos, Sven Mijnans.
Jerdy Schouten will miss the match through injury. Guus Til is doubtful because of a head injury.
The teams’ chances
A Portu win is offered at 1.65, with fair odds of 1.72 and a 58.2% probability. The draw and a PSV win are both quoted at 4.60, with fair odds of 4.79 and a 20.9% probability each.
| Outcome | Average odds | Average fair odds | Fair probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| Portu win | 1.65 | 1.72 | 58.2% |
| Draw | 4.60 | 4.79 | 20.9% |
| PSV win | 4.60 | 4.79 | 20.9% |
Total goals prediction
Over 2.5 goals is available at 1.55, compared with 2.35 for Under 2.5 goals, suggesting an expectation of at least three goals. At the 3.5-goal line, the relationship is reversed: Under 3.5 goals is at 1.60 and Over 3.5 goals at 2.35.
| Line | Under | Over |
|---|---|---|
| 2.5 | 2.35 | 1.55 |
| 3.5 | 1.60 | 2.35 |
Handicap prediction
Portu (-1.5) are quoted at 2.55 and PSV (-1.5) at 7.50. At the +1.5 handicap, Portu (+1.5) are shorter at 1.05 than PSV (+1.5) at 1.48. Portu (-1) are at 2.03 and PSV (-1) at 6.50; Portu (+1) are at 1.06 and PSV (+1) at 1.80. At a handicap of 0, Portu (0) at 1.28 are much shorter than PSV (0) at 3.35.
| Home | Handicap | Away |
|---|---|---|
| 2.55 | -1.5 | 7.50 |
| 1.05 | 1.5 | 1.48 |
| 2.03 | -1 | 6.50 |
| 1.06 | 1 | 1.80 |
| 1.28 | 0 | 3.35 |
Both teams to score prediction
Both teams to score — Yes is quoted at 1.60, while Both teams to score — No, meaning at least one team will fail to score, is at 2.25. The market considers both teams scoring more likely.
| Both teams to score | Odds |
|---|---|
| Yes | 1.60 |
| No | 2.25 |
Double chance forecast
| Bookmaker | 1X | 12 | X2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bet365 |
13/100
|
9/50
|
163/100
|
| William Hill |
3/20
|
1/5
|
29/20
|
| 888sport |
7/50
|
1/5
|
29/20
|
Odds are current as of the material publication date
Team goals prediction
For this match, bookmakers have set the following team goal totals: 2 goals for Portu and 1 goal for PSV.
Portu team goals
For Portu’s team goals, Over 0.5 is at 1.08 compared with 6.00 for Under 0.5; Over 1.5 is at 1.60 compared with 2.25 for Under 1.5. At the 2-goal line, Under 2 is quoted at 1.73 and Over 2 at 2.05, while at 2.5, Under 2.5 at 1.45 is shorter than Over 2.5 at 2.65.
| Under | Team goals | Over |
|---|---|---|
| 6.00 | 0.5 | 1.08 |
| 2.25 | 1.5 | 1.60 |
| 1.73 | 2 | 2.05 |
| 1.45 | 2.5 | 2.65 |
PSV team goals
For PSV’s team goals, Over 0.5 is offered at 1.42 compared with 2.65 for Under 0.5. At the 1-goal line, Under 1 is at 1.75 and Over 1 at 2.00; at 1.5, Under 1.5 at 1.35 is much shorter than Over 1.5 at 2.90.
| Under | Team goals | Over |
|---|---|---|
| 2.65 | 0.5 | 1.42 |
| 1.75 | 1 | 2.00 |
| 1.35 | 1.5 | 2.90 |
Who Will Referee the Match
Daniel Siebert (Germany)
Matches — 5 (international matches, 2026/27);
Average fouls per match — 23;
Average yellow cards per match (including second yellow cards) — 5.4;
Matches with a red card — 0 out of 5;
Matches with a penalty — 0 out of 5.
