Odds overview
Portu are clear favourites, with a home win available at around 1.65, while the draw and a PSV win are both at 4.60. In the main totals market, Over 2.5 goals at 1.55 is markedly shorter than Under 2.5 goals at 2.35. For handicap (0), Portu at 1.28 are shorter than PSV at 3.35.
Why Portu are favourites
A Portu win is offered at 1.65, while the draw and a PSV win are both available at 4.60.
- The visitors arrive after a 1:2 defeat to ADO Den Haag, and injuries to forwards have significantly reduced PSV's attacking options.
- There were over 8.5 shots on target in 8 of Portu's last 10 home Champions League matches.
Form and Line-up Portu
In the previous Champions League round, Portu lost 2:3 to Real Betis, conceding a penalty in the 84th minute that denied them a draw.
After two matches, the Portuguese side sit 30th in the Champions League table without a point.
With an average of 1 goal per Champions League match, the team rank third from bottom.
- Portu have scored at least two goals in 9 of their last 10 matches in all competitions.
- At least two goals have been scored in each of Portu's last 10 matches in all competitions.
- Portu committed fewer than 12.5 fouls in 9 of their last 10 home Champions League matches.
Probable line-up (4-3-3): Diogo Costa, Martim Fernandes, Pablo Rosario, Jakub Kiwior, Francisco Moura, Victor Froholdt, Alan Varela, Gabri Veiga, Borja Sainz, André Silva, Pepe.
Form and Line-up PSV
Peter Bosz acknowledged that the absence of a specialist centre-forward makes it harder to get players into the opposition penalty area. PSV sit 26th in the league phase table, with one point from their opening two matches.
The Dutch club have not won the shots-on-target count in any of their last 10 away Champions League matches.
- PSV's opponents have scored no more than one goal in 8 of their last 10 matches in all competitions.
- PSV committed fewer than 12.5 fouls in each of their last 10 away Champions League matches.
- At least two goals have been scored in 9 of PSV's last 10 matches in all competitions.
Probable line-up (4-2-3-1): Matěj Kovář, Sergino Dest, Lutsharel Geertruida, Armando Obispo, Filip Kostić, Mauro Júnior, Kodai Sano, Dennis Man, Guus Til, Ayoni Santos, Sven Mijnans.
Jerdy Schouten will miss the match through injury. Guus Til is doubtful because of a head injury.
Teams' chances
A Portu win is offered at 1.65, with fair odds of 1.72 and a 58.2% probability. The draw and a PSV win are both quoted at 4.60, with fair odds of 4.79 and a 20.9% probability each.
| Result | Average odds | Average fair odds | Fair probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| Portu win | 1.65 | 1.72 | 58.2% |
| Draw | 4.60 | 4.79 | 20.9% |
| PSV win | 4.60 | 4.79 | 20.9% |
Total goals prediction
Over 2.5 goals is available at 1.55, compared with 2.35 for Under 2.5, indicating an expectation of at least three goals. At the 3.5-goal line, the relationship reverses: Under 3.5 is 1.60 and Over 3.5 is 2.35.
| Line | Under | Over |
|---|---|---|
| 2.5 | 2.35 | 1.55 |
| 3.5 | 1.60 | 2.35 |
Handicap prediction
Portu (-1.5) are quoted at 2.55 and PSV (-1.5) at 7.50. At the +1.5 handicap line, Portu (+1.5) are shorter at 1.05, compared with 1.48 for PSV (+1.5). Portu (-1) are 2.03 and PSV (-1) are 6.50; Portu (+1) are 1.06 and PSV (+1) are 1.80. At handicap (0), Portu at 1.28 are considerably shorter than PSV at 3.35.
| Home | Handicap | Away |
|---|---|---|
| 2.55 | -1.5 | 7.50 |
| 1.05 | 1.5 | 1.48 |
| 2.03 | -1 | 6.50 |
| 1.06 | 1 | 1.80 |
| 1.28 | 0 | 3.35 |
Both teams to score prediction
Both teams to score – Yes is available at 1.60, while Both teams to score – No, meaning at least one team will not score, is 2.25. The market favours both teams scoring.
| Both teams to score | Odds |
|---|---|
| Yes | 1.60 |
| No | 2.25 |
Double chance forecast
| Bookmaker | 1X | 12 | X2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bet365 |
17/100
|
11/50
|
5/4
|
| William Hill |
1/5
|
11/50
|
23/20
|
| 888sport |
1/5
|
11/50
|
23/20
|
Odds are current as of the material publication date
Team goals prediction
For this match, bookmakers have set the following team-goals lines: Portu — 2 goals; PSV — 1 goal.
Portu team goals
Portu team goals: Over 0.5 is 1.08 against 6.00 for Under 0.5; Over 1.5 is 1.60 against 2.25 for Under 1.5. At the 2-goal line, Under 2 is quoted at 1.73 and Over 2 at 2.05, while at 2.5, Under 2.5 at 1.45 is shorter than Over 2.5 at 2.65.
| Under | Team goals | Over |
|---|---|---|
| 6.00 | 0.5 | 1.08 |
| 2.25 | 1.5 | 1.60 |
| 1.73 | 2 | 2.05 |
| 1.45 | 2.5 | 2.65 |
PSV team goals
PSV team goals: Over 0.5 is offered at 1.42 against 2.65 for Under 0.5. At the 1-goal line, Under 1 is 1.75 and Over 1 is 2.00; at 1.5, Under 1.5 at 1.35 is considerably shorter than Over 1.5 at 2.90.
| Under | Team goals | Over |
|---|---|---|
| 2.65 | 0.5 | 1.42 |
| 1.75 | 1 | 2.00 |
| 1.35 | 1.5 | 2.90 |
