Portugal vs Norway, a Matchday 4 fixture in Group A4 of the 2026/27 UEFA Nations League, will take place at the Estádio do Dragão on 4 October 2026 at 14:45 EDT / 11:45 PDT.
Below, we examine the bookmakers' odds and betting options for this match.
Portugal beat Norway away (2:1) in September and now host them in Portu. The hosts began the tournament with two consecutive wins, including a victory over Wales (1:0), and will look to consolidate their outright lead in the group on home soil.
The hosts regularly create chances: Portugal scored at least one goal in 8 of their last 10 matches across all competitions. They also maintain their discipline, keeping their team total under 2.5 in 9 of 10 matches and securing results through measured control.
Norway remain dangerous in attack and scored in each of their last 10 matches across all competitions, with nine of those games producing over 2.5 goals. However, following their home defeat to Portugal, the Scandinavians face a demanding schedule: an away game in Wales on 1 October leaves very little recovery time before the match on 4 October 2026.
The main risk to the bet comes from the visitors' link-up play on the break, where Erling Haaland can punish any lapse in concentration. Another concern is the uncertain availability of Bruno Fernandes, who missed the previous match against Norway due to physical discomfort.
The greater quality throughout their squad, home advantage and the visitors' congested schedule give the hosts a clear edge. Prediction: Portugal to win.
Maurizio Mariani (Italy)
Matches — 12 (international fixtures, 2025/26–2026/27);
Fouls per match — 22;
Yellow cards per match (including second yellows) — 3.8;
Matches with red cards — 2 of 12;
Matches with penalties — 2 of 12.
Denmark
Portugal
Norway
Portugal
Portugal
Wales
Wales
Norway
Norway
Portugal
Norway
Denmark
Norway
Portugal
Portugal
Norway
Portugal
Norway
Norway
Portugal
Portugal
| # | Team |
|
|
|
|
Matches played
|
W
|
D
|
L
|
G
|
Points
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 |
Portugal
|
-:- | -:- | 1:0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
3:1
|
6 | |
2 |
Denmark
|
2:4 | -:- | 2:0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
4:3
|
3 | |
3 |
Norway
|
1:2 | 3:2 | -:- | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
4:4
|
3 | |
4 |
Wales
|
-:- | -:- | 2:1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
0:3
|
0 |
| Bookie | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
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 | |||
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