Odds Overview
Twente are the 1X2 favourites at 2.07, while Qarabag to win is priced at around 3.10 and the draw at 3.85. For Over 2.5 goals, the odds of 1.72 are lower than Under 2.5 goals at 2.05. In the main handicap market, Twente Draw No Bet at 1.58 is preferred in price terms to Qarabag Draw No Bet at 2.30.
Why Twente Are Favourites for the Match
Qarabag to win is priced at 3.10, the draw at 3.85, and Twente to win is offered at 2.07.
- The Dutch club have more attacking activity than the hosts: in 8 of Twente's last 10 Conference League matches, they have beaten their opponents for shots on target.
- At the same time, Qarabag have been outshot on target in 8 of their last 10 Conference League games, underlining the visitors' playing advantage in European fixtures.
Form and Line-up Qarabag
In August, Qurbanov's side beat Dynamo Kyiv (2:0) and Shamakhi (3:1) in the league. The match against Kapaz between the European fixtures was postponed to give the team time to prepare for the return leg.
The Azerbaijani side's model in European competition is clear: minimal risk, a compact defence and taking the rare chances they create. Against Dynamo Kyiv it worked twice, and against Twente it has already worked once.
Key numbers:
In 9 of Qarabag's last 10 matches in all competitions, their opponents scored no more than one goal.
In 8 of the team's last 10 matches, there were no more than three goals.
In all of their last 10 Conference League matches, Qarabag received no more yellow cards than their opponents.
Probable line-up (4-2-3-1): Martin Zlomislic — Mateus Silva, Badavi Huseynov, Bence Varkonyi, Bruno Langa — Samuel Gomes Lobato, Marko Jankovic — Kady, Oleksiy Kashchuk, Jali Mouaddib — Musa Gurbanli.
Absentees: Elvin Jafarguliyev (injury).
Form and Line-up Twente
The Dutch side make the trip to Baku after a league win over PEC Zwolle (3:1) and a European draw with DAC (3:3). Between the two matches against Qarabag, John van den Brom's team did not play in the domestic league and had a full week to prepare.
The problem is in defence: injuries to Lemkin and Hilgers forced a reshuffle at centre-back, and in the first match Van den Brom replaced Propper at half-time.
Key numbers:
In the first game, Twente had 21 shots and failed to score.
In 9 of their last 10 Conference League matches, the team were not behind their opponents for total shot attempts.
Over 2.5 goals landed in 8 of Twente's last 10 matches.
Probable line-up (4-2-3-1): Lars Unnerstall — Bart van Rooij, Robin Propper, Ruud Nijstad, Aske Adelgaard — Ramiz Zerrouki, Daouda Weidmann — Marko Pjaca, Daan Rots, Sondre Orjasaeter — Wout Weghorst.
Team Chances
Qarabag to win is 3.10; the no-margin estimate is 3.30, with a probability of 30.3%. The draw is offered at 3.85, with a no-margin estimate of 4.10 and a probability of 24.4%. Twente to win is 2.07, with a no-margin estimate of 2.21 and a probability of 45.3%, making the visitors the most likely outcome.
Outcome | Average odds | Average no-margin odds | No-margin probability |
Qarabag to win | 3.10 | 3.30 | 30.3% |
Draw | 3.85 | 4.10 | 24.4% |
Twente to win | 2.07 | 2.21 | 45.3% |
Total Goals Betting Tip
On the 2.5 line, Under 2.5 goals at 2.05 is priced higher than Over 2.5 goals at 1.72. At the 3.5 mark, by contrast, Under 3.5 goals at 1.43 is noticeably shorter than Over 3.5 goals at 2.60.
Line | Under goals | Over goals |
2.5 | 2.05 | 1.72 |
3.5 | 1.43 | 2.60 |
Handicap Betting Tip
Qarabag (-1.5) is offered at 5.70 against 3.50 for Twente (-1.5). For the 1.5 line, the odds are lower: Qarabag (+1.5) is 1.25 and Twente (+1.5) is 1.09. Qarabag (-1) is available at 5.00, with Twente (-1) at 2.90; on the +1 line, Qarabag (+1) is 1.35 and Twente (+1) is 1.12. In the Draw No Bet market, Twente (0) at 1.58 is rated higher than Qarabag (0) at 2.30.
Hosts | Handicap | Visitors |
5.70 | -1.5 | 3.50 |
1.25 | 1.5 | 1.09 |
5.00 | -1 | 2.90 |
1.35 | 1 | 1.12 |
2.30 | 0 | 1.58 |
Both Teams to Score Betting Tip
Both teams to score - Yes at 1.63 looks more likely than Both teams to score - No at 2.20; the second option means at least one team will not score.
Both teams to score | Odds |
Yes | 1.63 |
No | 2.20 |
Double Chance Betting Tip
The lowest odds are on 12 at 1.25. X2 is 1.35 and 1X is 1.70, so the option of the visitors avoiding defeat is rated higher than the hosts avoiding defeat.
1X | 12 | X2 |
1.70 | 1.25 | 1.35 |
Individual Total Betting Tip
For this match, bookmakers have set the following individual totals: Qarabag — 1 goal, Twente — 1.5 goals.
Qarabag Individual Total
Qarabag: Under 0.5 goals is 3.15 against Over 0.5 goals at 1.30; on the 1 line, the odds are 2.15 and 1.62 respectively. For the 1.5 mark, Under 1.5 goals at 1.50 is priced lower than Over 1.5 goals at 2.40.
Under | Individual total | Over |
3.15 | 0.5 | 1.30 |
2.15 | 1 | 1.62 |
1.50 | 1.5 | 2.40 |
Twente Individual Total
Twente: Under 0.5 goals is offered at 4.20, with Over 0.5 goals at 1.17; on the 1 line, the odds are 3.05 and 1.33. At the 1.5 mark, Under 1.5 goals at 1.75 is slightly lower than Over 1.5 goals at 1.95, while on the 2 line Under 2 goals is 1.35 against Over 2 goals at 2.90.
Under | Individual total | Over |
4.20 | 0.5 | 1.17 |
3.05 | 1 | 1.33 |
1.75 | 1.5 | 1.95 |
1.35 | 2 | 2.90 |
Who Will Referee the Match
Rohit Saggi (Norway)
Matches – 10 (International matches, 2025–2026);
Average fouls per match – 29;
Average yellow cards per match (including second yellows) – 3.9;
Matches with red cards – 1 of 10;
Matches with penalties – 2 of 10.
