Odds overview
In the 1X2 market, the home win at 2.40 holds a slight edge over the away win at 2.85, while the draw is available at 3.55. In the main totals market, Over 2.5 goals at 1.75 looks more likely than Under 2.5 goals at 2.07. In the handicap market, Home Draw No Bet at 1.77 is rated more highly than Away Draw No Bet at 2.05.
Why Racing Santander are favourites
Racing Santander to win is available at 2.40, the draw at 3.55 and an Alaves win at 2.85. The arguments for this assessment are:
Racing Santander consistently create chances at home — in 9 of their last 10 matches, the Santander side have had at least four shots on target.
Alaves have made an excellent start to the season — 10 points from four matches and second place in the table. However, this success has largely come at home, and it will be harder to repeat those results away against an energetic Racing Santander.
Racing Santander have won seven of their last eight home matches, drawing once.
Form and Line-up Racing Santander
Racing Santander lost 2:3 to Rayo Vallecano in Matchday 4, despite taking the lead twice during the match. Before that game, head coach Jose Alberto Lopez called Racing Santander "a team under construction" because of the 11 new arrivals in the squad. Before then, the Santander side beat Elche 3:2 at home, lost 0:1 to Getafe and drew 2:2 with Villarreal.
Key numbers:
Racing Santander have scored at least one goal in 9 of their last 10 home matches in all competitions.
At least 26 fouls have been recorded in 8 of Racing Santander's last 10 matches in all competitions.
Referees have shown at least 4 yellow cards in 8 of Racing Santander's last 10 matches.
Probable Racing Santander line-up (4-2-3-1): Julen Agirrezabala — Alvaro Mantilla, Manu Hernando, Facundo Gonzalez, Jorge Salinas — Ivan Martin, Matteo Prati — Pablo Garcia, Sergio Canales, Inigo Vicente — Yasir Zabiri.
Absentees: Andres Martin (injury).
Form and Line-up Alaves
Alaves have started unbeaten and recorded two successive wins before travelling to Santander: they first beat Villarreal 1:0 at home, then thrashed Osasuna 5:2 thanks to a Lucas Boye hat-trick. Before that, the Glorious Ones drew 1:1 with Rayo Vallecano and beat Getafe 3:0. With 10 points, Alaves sit second in the La Liga table.
Key numbers:
At least 26 fouls have been recorded in all 10 of Alaves's last 10 away La Liga matches.
Alaves are unbeaten in 8 consecutive matches.
No more than 5 yellow cards have been shown in 8 of Alaves's last 10 away La Liga matches.
Probable Alaves line-up (5-3-2): Antonio Sivera — Angel Perez, Jonny Otto, Nahuel Tenaglia, Ville Koski, Abde Rebbach — Pablo Ibanez, Antonio Blanco, Carles Alena — Mariano Diaz, Lucas Boye.
Absentees: Toni Martinez (doubtful), Mikel Rodriguez (injury).
Team chances
The home win is available at 2.40; the fair odds are 2.52 and the probability is 39.7%. The draw is offered at 3.55, with fair odds of 3.72 and a probability of 26.8%. The away win is 2.85; the fair odds are 2.99 and the probability is 33.4%.
Outcome | Average odds | Average fair odds | No-margin probability |
Racing Santander to win | 2.40 | 2.52 | 39.7% |
Draw | 3.55 | 3.72 | 26.8% |
Alaves to win | 2.85 | 2.99 | 33.4% |
Total goals prediction
At the 2.5-goal line, Over 2.5 goals at 1.75 is shorter than Under 2.5 goals at 2.07. At the 3.5-goal line, by contrast, Under 3.5 goals is available at 1.42 and Over 3.5 goals at 2.65.
Line | Under | Over |
2.5 | 2.07 | 1.75 |
3.5 | 1.42 | 2.65 |
Handicap prediction
Home handicap (-1.5) is offered at 4.30 and away handicap (-1.5) at 4.90. At the 1.5 line, the odds are close: home handicap (+1.5) is 1.13 and away handicap (+1.5) is 1.16. Home handicap (-1) is available at 3.60 versus 4.20 for away handicap (-1); home handicap (+1) is 1.17 versus 1.25 for away handicap (+1). At the zero line, Home Draw No Bet is 1.77 and Away Draw No Bet is 2.05.
Home | Handicap | Away |
4.30 | -1.5 | 4.90 |
1.13 | 1.5 | 1.16 |
3.60 | -1 | 4.20 |
1.17 | 1 | 1.25 |
1.77 | 0 | 2.05 |
Both teams to score prediction
Both teams to score — Yes at 1.62 looks more likely than Both teams to score — No at 2.25, which requires at least one team not to score.
Both teams to score | Odds |
Yes | 1.62 |
No | 2.25 |
Double chance prediction
In the double-chance market, 12 at 1.30 is shorter than 1X at 1.42 and X2 at 1.57; X2 remains the longest option.
1X | 12 | X2 |
1.42 | 1.30 | 1.57 |
Team total goals prediction
The bookmakers have set the following team totals for this match: Racing Santander — 1.5 goals; Alaves — 1 goal.
Racing Santander team total
Racing Santander team total: Under 0.5 goals — 3.85, Over 0.5 goals — 1.22; Under 1 goal — 2.65, Over 1 goal — 1.45. At the 1.5-goal line, Under 1.5 goals is available at 1.68 versus 2.12 for Over 1.5 goals, while at the 2-goal line, Under 2 goals is 1.27 and Over 2 goals is 3.40.
Under | Team total | Over |
3.85 | 0.5 | 1.22 |
2.65 | 1 | 1.45 |
1.68 | 1.5 | 2.12 |
1.27 | 2 | 3.40 |
Alaves team total
Alaves team total: Under 0.5 goals — 3.35, Over 0.5 goals — 1.27; Under 1 goal — 2.30, Over 1 goal — 1.58. At the 1.5-goal line, Under 1.5 goals is available at 1.55, while Over 1.5 goals is 2.35.
Under | Team total | Over |
3.35 | 0.5 | 1.27 |
2.30 | 1 | 1.58 |
1.55 | 1.5 | 2.35 |
Who Will Referee the Match
Javier Alberola (Spain)
Matches — 22 (La Liga, 2025/26–2026/27);
Average fouls per match — 27;
Average yellow cards per match (including second yellows) — 4;
Matches with red cards — 5 of 22;
Matches with penalties — 10 of 22.
