Form and Line-up RasenBallsport Leipzig
Before their unexpected hammering by Bayer Leverkusen (1:4), RasenBallsport Leipzig had recorded five wins in a row, and in that run only Borussia Monchengladbach managed to concede fewer than two goals against the home side (1:0). In their last home match, the side coached by Werner calmly dealt with Union Berlin (3:1), outclassing the visitors with three accurate strikes by the 63rd minute (4.49-0.19 xG). Yes, a lot did not work in Leverkusen, but the visitors still accumulated a decent 1.17 expected goals and produced 14 shots – against an underdog that level of pressure would have been enough for victory.
Key numbers RasenBallsport Leipzig:
In their last four home matches RasenBallsport Leipzig have scored 11 goals – and have won every one of them.
RasenBallsport Leipzig have the second-best home xG figure in the Bundesliga (43.99 over 16 matches).
Since October 2024, RasenBallsport Leipzig have beaten St. Pauli twice on their own pitch, scoring a total of six goals (4:2, 2:0).
Probable RasenBallsport Leipzig line-up (4-3-3): Maarten Vandevoordt — Max Finkgrafe, El Chadaille Bitshiabu, Willi Orban, Ridle Baku — Christoph Baumgartner, Nicolas Seiwald, Xaver Schlager — Antonio Nusa, Romulo, Yan Diomande.
Absentees: Viggo Gebel, Suleman Sani, Leopold Zingerle, Ezechiel Banzuzi (all – injury).
Form and Line-up St. Pauli
Alexander Blessin's St. Pauli have been unfortunate to run into Wolfsburg's renaissance, with the Wolves taking points in three consecutive rounds. The visitors are level with Wolfsburg on 26 points, but their tie-breakers are worse. Last weekend against Mainz (1:2), the side from Hamburg collapsed in the first half, conceding twice by the 40th minute. The final xG difference (0.84-2.54) underlined how fully deserved Mainz's win was.
Key numbers St. Pauli:
St. Pauli have the worst away xG figure in the league (14.46 in 16 matches).
St. Pauli have collected only nine points away from home – only Heidenheim have fewer (6).
St. Pauli rank among the five worst teams in the Bundesliga for xGA (60.41 over 32 matches).
Probable St. Pauli line-up (3-4-2-1): Nikola Vasilj — Karol Mets, Hauke Wahl, Tomoya Ando — Lars Ritzka, Eric Smith, Jackson Irvine, Arkadiusz Pyrka — Joel Chima Fujita, Danel Sinani — Andreas Hountondji.
Absentees: Simon Spari, Ricky-Jade Jones, Mathias Pereira Lage, James Sands (all – injury).
