Odds overview
Real Madrid are clear favourites: a home win is available at around 1.13, compared with 9.00 for a draw and 21.00 for an away win. At the 3.5-goal line, Over is marginally more likely at 1.75 than Under at 2.10. In the handicap market, Home (-1.5) at 1.32 is markedly favoured over Away (+1.5) at 3.10.
Why Real Madrid are favourites for the match
Real Madrid to win is available at 1.13, the draw at 9.00 and Rayo to win at 21.00. The arguments for this assessment are:
Real Madrid are one of the richest clubs in the world, while Rayo's squad is worth only €85 million.
Rayo have made a poor start to the league — after four rounds, they are 14th with four points and 10 goals conceded. The visitors' defence regularly falters, which looks fatal against Real Madrid.
Real Madrid have won six consecutive matches at the Bernabeu in all competitions.
Form and Line-up Real Madrid
On 8 September 2026, Real Madrid beat Inter 2:1 in the opening round of the Champions League thanks to goals from Kylian Mbappe and Federico Valverde, conceding only to Carlos Augusto in the 77th minute. Things have been going well for Los Blancos in La Liga — three wins in four matches, with only the 0:1 defeat to Real Betis in the last round spoiling the mood.
Key numbers:
Real Madrid committed no more than 11 fouls in 9 of their last 10 home La Liga matches.
In 8 of their last 10 home La Liga matches, Real Madrid received no more than two yellow cards.
Real Madrid's home matches have produced at least nine corners in 8 of their last 10 La Liga fixtures.
Probable Real Madrid line-up (4-2-3-1): Thibaut Courtois — Denzel Dumfries, Ibrahima Konate, Dean Huijsen, Marc Cucurella — Federico Valverde, Eduardo Camavinga — Arda Guler, Jude Bellingham, Vinicius Junior — Kylian Mbappe.
Absentees: Ferland Mendy, Raul Asencio, Rodrygo (all injured).
Form and Line-up Rayo Vallecano
On 5 September 2026, Rayo Vallecano played an entertaining Matchday 4 La Liga match against Racing, winning 3:2. The team trailed twice, while Sergio Camello was the key figure in attack, scoring the winner from an Unai Lopez assist. It was the Bees' first league win; before that, they had lost to Sevilla (1:2) and Barcelona (2:5), as well as drawing with Alaves (1:1).
Key numbers:
In 8 of Rayo Vallecano's last 10 away La Liga matches, at least four yellow cards were shown.
Rayo Vallecano had fewer shots than their opponents in 9 of their last 10 away La Liga matches.
In 9 of their last 10 away La Liga matches, Rayo Vallecano received at least as many yellow cards as their opponents.
Probable Rayo Vallecano line-up (4-3-3): Dani Cardenas — Andrei Ratiu, Florian Lejeune, Pathe Ciss, Adria Pedrosa — Unai Lopez, Oscar Valentin, Pedro Diaz — Giorgi Tsitaishvili, Sergio Camello, Alvaro Garcia.
Absentees: Augusto Batalla, Jozhua Vertrouwd, Luiz Felipe (all injured), Fran Perez, Jorge de Frutos (both suspended).
Team chances
A home win is available at 1.13; the fair odds are 1.18, with an 84.8% probability. The draw is available at 9.00, with fair odds of 9.39 and a 10.6% probability; an away win is available at 21.00, with fair odds of 21.92 and a 4.6% probability.
Outcome | Average odds | Average fair odds | No-margin probability |
Real Madrid to win | 1.13 | 1.18 | 84.8% |
Draw | 9.00 | 9.39 | 10.6% |
Rayo Vallecano to win | 21.00 | 21.92 | 4.6% |
Total goals prediction
At the 2.5-goal line, Under is available at 3.35 and Over at 1.28. At the 3.5-goal line, the odds are closer: Under at 2.10 and Over at 1.75.
Line | Under | Over |
2.5 | 3.35 | 1.28 |
3.5 | 2.10 | 1.75 |
Handicap prediction
Home (-1.5) is available at 1.32, while Away (+1.5) is available at 3.10.
Home | Handicap | Away |
1.32 | -1.5 | — |
— | +1.5 | 3.10 |
Both teams to score prediction
Both teams to score - No at 1.72 is shorter than Both teams to score - Yes at 2.05: the market marginally favours at least one team not scoring.
Both teams to score | Odds |
Yes | 2.05 |
No | 1.72 |
Double chance prediction
Double chance 12 is available at 1.06, while X2 is available at 6.00.
1X | 12 | X2 |
— |
3/50
|
5/1
|
Team total goals prediction
For this match, the bookmakers have set the following team total-goal lines: Real Madrid — 3 goals, Rayo Vallecano — 0.5 goals.
Real Madrid team total
Real Madrid team total: at the 2.5-goal line, Under is available at 2.50 and Over at 1.50; at 3 goals, the odds are 1.92 and 1.82 respectively; at the 3.5-goal line, Under is available at 1.55 and Over at 2.35.
Under | Team total | Over |
2.50 | 2.5 | 1.50 |
1.92 | 3 | 1.82 |
1.55 | 3.5 | 2.35 |
Rayo Vallecano team total
Rayo Vallecano team total: at the 0.5-goal line, Under is available at 1.75 and Over at 2.03; at 1 goal, the odds are 1.20 and 4.30 respectively; at the 1.5-goal line, Under is available at 1.10 and Over at 5.50.
Under | Team total | Over |
1.75 | 0.5 | 2.03 |
1.20 | 1 | 4.30 |
1.10 | 1.5 | 5.50 |
