Odds overview
Real Madrid are clear favourites: a home win is available at 1.25, compared with 6.60 for a draw and 9.50 for an RB Leipzig win. In the main totals market, Over 2.5 goals at 1.25 is much shorter than Under 2.5 goals at 3.65. Real Madrid (-1.5) are quoted at 1.65 in the handicap market, shorter than RB Leipzig (+1.5) at 2.25.
Why Real Madrid are favourites
The bookmakers strongly favour the hosts: a Real Madrid win is available at 1.25, a draw at 6.60 and an RB Leipzig win at 9.50.
- Real Madrid have started this UEFA Champions League campaign well, taking 6 points from their first two league-phase matches with a goal difference of 6:4.
- RB Leipzig have struggled defensively against top opponents: they recently suffered a heavy 1:6 defeat away to Bayern Munich in the Bundesliga.
Form and Line-up Real Madrid
Real Madrid beat Sevilla 4:1 at home in their latest La Liga match, having earlier defeated Roma 4:3 away in the UEFA Champions League. After the win over Sevilla, head coach José Mourinho said his team had controlled the match throughout and were focused on their European objectives.
- More than two goals were scored in 9 of Real Madrid's last 10 home matches in the UEFA Champions League.
- Real Madrid had more than 12.5 shots in 9 of their last 10 home matches in the UEFA Champions League.
- There were more than 8.5 shots on target in 9 of Real Madrid's last 10 home matches in the UEFA Champions League.
Probable Real Madrid line-up (4-3-3): Thibaut Courtois, Federico Valverde, Ibrahima Konaté, Dean Huijsen, Marc Cucurella, Aurelien Tchouameni, Arda Güler, Jude Bellingham, Yan Diomande, Endrick, Kylian Mbappé.
Form and Line-up RB Leipzig
Before travelling to Madrid, the German club secured a narrow 1:0 home win over PSV in the UEFA Champions League. However, averaging 1 goal per game, RB Leipzig rank third from bottom among the 36 teams.
- More than 9.5 corners were taken in 9 of RB Leipzig's last 10 away matches in the UEFA Champions League.
- The teams had fewer than 10.5 shots on target in 8 of RB Leipzig's last 10 away matches in the UEFA Champions League.
- RB Leipzig took more than 4.5 corners in 8 of their last 10 away matches in the UEFA Champions League.
Probable RB Leipzig line-up (4-2-3-1): Péter Gulácsi, Ridle Baku, Willi Orban, Castello Lukeba, David Raum, Nicolas Seiwald, Ezechiel Banzuzi, Brajan Gruda, Andrija Maksimovic, Antonio Nusa, Christopher Nkunku.
The teams' chances
A Real Madrid win is available at 1.25, with fair odds of 1.32 and a fair probability of 75.7%. The corresponding figures are 6.60, 6.97 and 14.3% for a draw, and 9.50, 10.04 and 10% for an RB Leipzig win: the market strongly favours the hosts.
| Outcome | Average odds | Average fair odds | Fair probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| Real Madrid win | 1.25 | 1.32 | 75.7% |
| Draw | 6.60 | 6.97 | 14.3% |
| RB Leipzig win | 9.50 | 10.04 | 10.0% |
Total goals prediction
At the 2.5-goal line, Over 2.5 goals at 1.25 is considerably shorter than Under 2.5 goals at 3.65. At 3.5 goals, Over 3.5 goals is also favoured — 1.65 compared with 2.25 for Under 3.5 goals.
| Line | Under | Over |
|---|---|---|
| 2.5 | 3.65 | 1.25 |
| 3.5 | 2.25 | 1.65 |
Handicap prediction
Real Madrid (-1.5) are shorter at 1.65 than RB Leipzig (+1.5) at 2.25. At the 1-goal handicap line, Real Madrid (-1) are strongly favoured at 1.32 over RB Leipzig (+1) at 3.05; at the zero handicap line, Real Madrid (0) are available at 1.07 compared with 6.50 for RB Leipzig (0).
| Home team | Handicap | Away team |
|---|---|---|
| 1.65 | -1.5 | |
| 1.5 | 2.25 | |
| 1.32 | -1 | |
| 1 | 3.05 | |
| 1.07 | 0 | 6.50 |
Both teams to score prediction
Both teams to score – Yes at 1.55 looks more likely than Both teams to score – No at 2.35, which means at least one team will fail to score.
| Both teams to score | Odds |
|---|---|
| Yes | 1.55 |
| No | 2.35 |
Double chance forecast
| Bookmaker | 1X | 12 | X2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bet365 |
7/100
|
1/10
|
3/1
|
| William Hill |
3/50
|
11/100
|
3/1
|
| 888sport |
3/50
|
11/100
|
3/1
|
Odds are current as of the material publication date
Team total goals prediction
The bookmakers have set the following team goal totals for this match: Real Madrid — 3 goals; RB Leipzig — 1 goal.
Real Madrid team total goals
For Real Madrid's team total, Over 2.5 goals at 1.60 is shorter than Under 2.5 goals at 2.25. At the 3-goal line, the odds are close: Under 3 goals is 1.80 and Over 3 goals is 1.95. At 3.5 goals, Under 3.5 goals is favoured at 1.52 compared with 2.45 for Over 3.5 goals.
| Under | Team total | Over |
|---|---|---|
| 2.25 | 2.5 | 1.60 |
| 1.80 | 3 | 1.95 |
| 1.52 | 3.5 | 2.45 |
RB Leipzig team total goals
For RB Leipzig's team total, Over 0.5 goals at 1.52 is considerably shorter than Under 0.5 goals at 2.45. At the 1-goal line, Under 1 goal is shorter at 1.55, while Over 1 goal is available at 2.40; at 1.5 goals, Under 1.5 goals is available at 1.25 compared with 3.50 for Over 1.5 goals.
| Under | Team total | Over |
|---|---|---|
| 2.45 | 0.5 | 1.52 |
| 1.55 | 1 | 2.40 |
| 1.25 | 1.5 | 3.50 |
Who Will Referee the Match
Istvan Kovach (Romania)
Matches — 13 (international matches, 2025/26–2026/27);
Average fouls per match — 26;
Average yellow cards per match (including second yellows) — 4.1;
Matches with a red card — 3 out of 13;
Matches with a penalty — 3 out of 13.
