Odds Overview
Real Madrid are clear favourites: Real Madrid to win is 1.37, while the draw is priced at around 5.30 and Real Sociedad to win at 7.70. In the main total, over 2.5 goals at 1.50 is notably more favoured than under 2.5 goals at 2.50. For the handicap, Real Sociedad (+1.5) at 1.82 is priced slightly lower than Real Madrid (-1.5) at 1.98.
Why Real Madrid Are Favourites for the Match
Bookmakers see Real Madrid as clear favourites: a home win is priced at 1.37, while a Real Sociedad win is 7.70 and the draw is 5.30. The 1X double chance (Real Madrid not to lose) is offered at 1.08. This advantage for the Madrid club is explained by several key factors.
- Home factor. At the Bernabeu, Real Madrid have won 14 of their last 17 head-to-head meetings with Real Sociedad by at least two goals.
- Attacking potential. Real Madrid score at least 2 goals at home in 8 of 10 matches and have more shots on target than their opponents in 10 of 10.
- Real Sociedad's away problems. The visitors have allowed opponents at least 4 shots on target in 9 of their last 10 matches.
- New coach. Jose Mourinho is setting the team up to dominate and play confidently on their own pitch.
Form and Line-up Real Madrid
Real Madrid are entering a new cycle under Jose Mourinho, so the team are still building connections during the opening rounds. In their August friendlies, the team recorded three wins (3:0, 1:0 and 2:1) and one draw (2:2). However, the first round almost ended with points dropped for Los Blancos — only late on did Carlos Espi earn the Madrid side three points against Espanyol (2:1).
Key numbers:
- Real Madrid are unbeaten in 9 matches in a row.
- The Madrid side have scored first in 9 consecutive matches.
- There have been fewer than 10 corners in 8 games in a row.
Probable Real Madrid line-up (4-2-3-1): Thibaut Courtois — Denzel Dumfries, Ibrahima Konate, Dean Huijsen, Alvaro Carreras — Bernardo Silva, Federico Valverde — Arda Guler, Jude Bellingham, Vinicius Junior — Kylian Mbappe
Absentees: Endrick, Ferland Mendy, Raul Asencio, Rodrygo, Thiago Pitarch, Eder Militao, Aurelien Tchouameni (all injured).
Form and Line-up Real Sociedad
Real Sociedad are still shaping their squad under Pellegrino Matarazzo: the coach has publicly stated the need to strengthen three positions. The San Sebastian side had an inconsistent pre-season, winning only one friendly (4:2) while losing three (1:2, 1:2, 1:3). Among the positives is the return of Mikel Oyarzabal, who adds flexibility in attack. The first round did not go well for the Basques — a defeat to Betis (0:1), in which they created 1.36 xG but failed to score.
Key numbers:
- Real Sociedad have conceded in 17 matches in a row.
- Both teams to score - Yes has landed in 6 of the previous 7 matches.
- There have been fewer than 10 corners in 6 games in a row.
Probable Real Sociedad line-up (4-4-2): Alex Remiro — Jon Aramburu, Jon Martin, Igor Zubeldia, Sergio Gomez — Takefusa Kubo, Yangel Herrera, Carlos Soler, Ander Barrenetxea — Luka Sucic, Orri Steinn Oskarsson
Absentees: Alvaro Odriozola, Jon Gorrotxategi, Pablo Marin, Goncalo Guedes (all injured).
Team Chances
Real Madrid to win is offered at 1.37; the no-margin price is 1.44 and the probability is 69.6%. The draw is 5.30 with a no-margin price of 5.56 and an 18.0% probability, while Real Sociedad to win is 7.70, with 8.07 and 12.4% respectively.
| Outcome | Average Odds | Average Odds Without Margin | Probability Without Margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| Real Madrid to win | 1.37 | 1.44 | 69.6% |
| Draw | 5.30 | 5.56 | 18.0% |
| Real Sociedad to win | 7.70 | 8.07 | 12.4% |
Total Goals Prediction
Over 2.5 goals at 1.50 is notably shorter than under 2.5 goals at 2.50. On the 3.5 line, the preference is already for under 3.5 goals at 1.67, compared with 2.20 for over 3.5 goals.
| Line | Under | Over |
|---|---|---|
| 2.5 | 2.50 | 1.50 |
| 3.5 | 1.67 | 2.20 |
Handicap Prediction
Real Sociedad (+1.5) at 1.82 is priced lower than Real Madrid (-1.5) at 1.98. Real Madrid (-1) at 1.53 is notably more favoured than Real Sociedad (+1) at 2.40, while on the zero handicap Real Madrid (0) are 1.11 against 5.30 for Real Sociedad (0).
| Hosts | Handicap | Visitors |
|---|---|---|
| 1.98 | -1.5 | — |
| — | 1.5 | 1.82 |
| 1.53 | -1 | — |
| — | 1 | 2.40 |
| 1.11 | 0 | 5.30 |
Both Teams to Score Prediction
Both teams to score - Yes at 1.75 is rated higher than both teams to score - No at 2.00: the second option means at least one of the teams will not score.
| Both Teams to Score | Odds |
|---|---|
| Yes | 1.75 |
| No | 2.00 |
Double Chance Prediction
1X at 1.08 is the most expected double chance, 12 is priced at 1.16, while X2 at 3.10 looks significantly less likely.
| 1X | 12 | X2 |
|---|---|---|
2/25
|
4/25
|
21/10
|
Individual Total Prediction
For this match, bookmakers have set the following individual totals: Real Madrid — 2.5 goals, Real Sociedad — 0.5 goals.
Real Madrid Individual Total
Real Madrid: over 2 goals at 1.65 is priced lower than under 2 goals at 2.20; on the 2.5 line, under 2.5 goals at 1.67 is favoured over over 2.5 goals at 2.15; for the 3 line, under 3 goals is 1.33 against 3.05 for over 3 goals.
| Under | Individual Total | Over |
|---|---|---|
| 2.20 | 2 | 1.65 |
| 1.67 | 2.5 | 2.15 |
| 1.33 | 3 | 3.05 |
Real Sociedad Individual Total
Real Sociedad: over 0.5 goals at 1.65 is priced lower than under 0.5 goals at 2.20; on the 1 line, under 1 goal at 1.45 is favoured over over 1 goal at 2.60; on the 1.5 line, under 1.5 goals is 1.23 against 3.70 for over 1.5 goals.
| Under | Individual Total | Over |
|---|---|---|
| 2.20 | 0.5 | 1.65 |
| 1.45 | 1 | 2.60 |
| 1.23 | 1.5 | 3.70 |
