Odds overview
Real Madrid are clear favourites — a home win is available at 1.27, while the draw and a Sevilla win are around 6.30 and 10.00. Over 2.5 goals at 1.42 is strongly favoured over Under 2.5 goals at 2.65. In the handicap markets, Real Madrid (-1.5) at 1.75 are favoured over Sevilla (+1.5) at 2.10; at a handicap of zero, Real Madrid (0) at 1.06 are much shorter than Sevilla (0) at 6.60.
Why Real Madrid are favourites
The bookmakers give the hosts a clear advantage: a Real Madrid win is offered at 1.27, the draw at 6.30 and a Sevilla win at 10.00.
- Real Madrid are fourth in the table with 18 points from 8 matches and a goal difference of 19:8.
- Real Madrid are unbeaten in nine consecutive matches at the Santiago Bernabéu across all competitions.
- Real Madrid are unbeaten in 15 consecutive meetings with Sevilla.
Form and Line-up Real Madrid
In their most recent UEFA Champions League match, Real Madrid beat AS Roma 4:3, scoring three times in seven minutes late on to come back from 1:3. In La Liga, after losing to Atlético Madrid (1:2), Real Madrid beat Villarreal (1:0), with Yan Diomande scoring his first goal for the club.
- Real Madrid have scored at least two goals in 8 of their last 10 home La Liga matches.
- More than 8.5 corners have been taken in 8 of Real Madrid's last 10 home league matches.
- There have been no more than 26.5 fouls in 9 of Real Madrid's last 10 home La Liga matches.
Probable line-up (4-2-3-1): Thibaut Courtois, Trent Alexander-Arnold, Antonio Rüdiger, Ibrahima Konaté, Álvaro Carreras, Federico Valverde, Aurélien Tchouaméni, Arda Güler, Jude Bellingham, Yan Diomande, Kylian Mbappé.
Unavailable: Vinicius Junior (suspended); Raul Asencio, Ferland Mendy, Rodrygo and Éder Militão (all injured).
Form and Line-up Sevilla
In the previous round, Sevilla let a lead slip away to Levante (3:3): they led 2:0, went ahead again in stoppage time, but conceded an equaliser. The red and whites have lost only once in their last five matches (1:3 to Barcelona) and have collected eight points.
- At least two goals have been scored in 6 of Sevilla's 8 La Liga matches this season.
- Sevilla have committed more than 11.5 fouls in 9 of their last 10 away league matches.
- At least one second-half goal has been scored in all 8 of Sevilla's La Liga matches this season.
Probable line-up (4-2-3-1): Odysseas Vlachodimos, Juan Iglesias, Kike Salas, Andrés Castrín, Gabriel Suazo, Giorgi Kochorashvili, Lucien Agoumé, Alfonso González, Youssouf Fofana, Peque Fernández, Robbie Ure.
Unavailable: Marcão, Lucas Stassin and Iker Muñoz (all injured); Isaac Romero (suspended).
The teams' chances
A Real Madrid win is offered at 1.27; the fair odds are 1.33, implying a 75.3% probability. For the draw, the corresponding figures are 6.30, 6.59 and 15.2%; for a Sevilla win, they are 10.00, 10.46 and 9.6%.
| Outcome | Average odds | Average fair odds | Fair probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| Real Madrid win | 1.27 | 1.33 | 75.3% |
| Draw | 6.30 | 6.59 | 15.2% |
| Sevilla win | 10.00 | 10.46 | 9.6% |
Total goals prediction
At the 2.5-goal line, Over 2.5 goals at 1.42 is strongly favoured over Under 2.5 goals at 2.65. At the 3.5-goal line, the odds are closer: Under 3.5 goals is 1.75 and Over 3.5 goals is 2.10.
| Line | Under | Over |
|---|---|---|
| 2.5 | 2.65 | 1.42 |
| 3.5 | 1.75 | 2.10 |
Handicap prediction
Real Madrid (-1.5) are available at 1.75 and Sevilla (+1.5) at 2.10. At the 1-goal handicap line, Real Madrid (-1) are offered at 1.35 and Sevilla (+1) at 2.90. For a handicap of zero, Real Madrid (0) are 1.06 and Sevilla (0) are 6.60.
| Home | Handicap | Away |
|---|---|---|
| 1.75 | -1.5 | |
| +1.5 | 2.10 | |
| 1.35 | -1 | |
| +1 | 2.90 | |
| 1.06 | 0 | 6.60 |
Both teams to score prediction
Both teams to score — Yes is available at 1.83 and Both teams to score — No at 1.91. The odds are close, with a slight preference for both teams finding the net.
| Both teams to score | Odds |
|---|---|
| Yes | 1.83 |
| No | 1.91 |
Team goals prediction
For this match, the bookmakers have set the following team goal lines: Real Madrid at 2.5 goals and Sevilla at 0.5 goals.
Real Madrid team goals
For Real Madrid team goals, Under 2 is 2.60 and Over 2 is 1.47. At the 2.5-goal line, the odds are almost equal — Under 2.5 at 1.85 and Over 2.5 at 1.90. At the 3-goal line, Under 3 is 1.45 and Over 3 is 2.60.
| Under | Team goals | Over |
|---|---|---|
| 2.60 | 2 | 1.47 |
| 1.85 | 2.5 | 1.90 |
| 1.45 | 3 | 2.60 |
Sevilla team goals
For Sevilla team goals, Under 0.5 is 2.00 and Over 0.5 is 1.75. At the higher lines, the unders are favoured: Under 1 is 1.33 against 3.05 for Over 1, and Under 1.5 is 1.16 against 4.30 for Over 1.5.
| Under | Team goals | Over |
|---|---|---|
| 2.00 | 0.5 | 1.75 |
| 1.33 | 1 | 3.05 |
| 1.16 | 1.5 | 4.30 |
Who Will Referee the Match
Mateo Busquets (Spain)
Matches — 22 (La Liga, 2025/26–2026/27);
Average fouls per match — 24;
Average yellow cards per match (including second yellows) — 4.9;
Matches with a red card — 6 of 22;
Matches with a penalty — 5 of 22.
