Odds overview
Real Madrid to win at 1.35 is a much shorter option than the draw at 5.90 or Villarreal to win at 7.30. In the main totals market, Over 2.5 goals is available at around 1.28, compared with 3.30 for Under 2.5. Real Madrid (-1.5) at 1.87 has slightly shorter odds than Villarreal (+1.5) at 1.93.
Why Real Madrid are favourites
Bookmakers offer odds of 1.35 for a Real Madrid win, while the draw is quoted at 5.90 and a Villarreal win at 7.30.
- Before Matchday 8, Real Madrid are fourth in the La Liga table with 15 points, while Villarreal are ninth with 8.
- Real Madrid have avoided defeat in 9 of their last 10 home league matches.
- Real Madrid are unbeaten in 6 consecutive meetings with Villarreal.
Form and Line-up Real Madrid
In recent La Liga matches, Real Madrid beat Rayo Vallecano (4:1) and Elche (3:2) before losing to Atlético Madrid (1:2). That setback against Atlético was Mourinho's side's second defeat of the season, following a loss to Betis (0:1); they have taken three points in every other match. Real Madrid have also begun their UEFA Champions League campaign, beating Inter (2:1) thanks to goals from Mbappé and Valverde.
- More than 8.5 corners have been taken in 8 of Real Madrid's last 10 home La Liga matches.
- The total number of shots on target has exceeded 7.5 in 9 of Real Madrid's last 10 home league matches.
- Fewer than 26.5 fouls have been recorded in 8 of Real Madrid's last 10 home La Liga matches.
Probable line-up (4-2-3-1): Thibaut Courtois, Denzel Dumfries, Antonio Rüdiger, Eduardo Camavinga, Marc Cucurella, Bernardo Silva, Aurélien Tchouaméni, Arda Güler, Jude Bellingham, Vinicius Junior, Carlos Espí.
Unavailable: Dean Huijsen (suspended); Raul Asencio, Ferland Mendy and Rodrygo (all injured); Éder Militão and Federico Valverde (both doubtful).
Form and Line-up Villarreal
Villarreal have begun to recover: two wins have followed two draws and three consecutive defeats. The Yellow Submarine beat Málaga (3:1) and Levante (3:1). Iñigo Pérez's side have also begun their UEFA Champions League campaign, but without success — they lost to Borussia Dortmund (2:3).
- Villarreal have taken more than 4.5 corners in 9 of their last 10 La Liga matches.
- More than 7.5 shots on target have been recorded in Villarreal's last 10 La Liga matches.
- Villarreal's opponents have received more than 1.5 yellow cards in 9 of Villarreal's last 10 away league matches.
Probable line-up (4-4-2): Péter Gulácsi, Alex Freeman, Renato Veiga, Pau Navarro, Sergi Cardona, Nicolas Pépé, Pape Gueye, Nathan Saliba, Gerard Moreno, Alberto Moleiro, Ayoze Pérez.
Unavailable: Tajon Buchanan (injured).
Teams' chances
Real Madrid to win is offered at 1.35, with fair odds of 1.41 and a 70.7% probability. The draw is quoted at 5.90, with fair odds of 6.18 and a 16.2% probability; the corresponding figures for Villarreal to win are 7.30, 7.64 and 13.1%. The hosts remain clear favourites.
| Outcome | Average odds | Average fair odds | Fair probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| Real Madrid to win | 1.35 | 1.41 | 70.7% |
| Draw | 5.90 | 6.18 | 16.2% |
| Villarreal to win | 7.30 | 7.64 | 13.1% |
Total goals prediction
At the 2.5-goal line, Over is much shorter at 1.28 than Under at 3.30. The gap is smaller at 3.5 goals: Over is 1.75 and Under 2.10.
| Line | Under | Over |
|---|---|---|
| 2.5 | 3.30 | 1.28 |
| 3.5 | 2.10 | 1.75 |
Handicap prediction
Real Madrid (-1.5) are available at 1.87, while Villarreal (+1.5) are offered at 1.93. At the one-goal handicap line, Real Madrid (-1) are 1.48 and Villarreal (+1) are 2.55. At a zero handicap, Real Madrid (0) at 1.12 are much shorter than Villarreal (0) at 5.10.
| Home | Handicap | Away |
|---|---|---|
| 1.87 | -1.5 | |
| 1.5 | 1.93 | |
| 1.48 | -1 | |
| 1 | 2.55 | |
| 1.12 | 0 | 5.10 |
Both teams to score prediction
Both teams to score — Yes is available at 1.50, while Both teams to score — No is 2.45; the market favours goals from both sides.
| Both teams to score | Odds |
|---|---|
| Yes | 1.50 |
| No | 2.45 |
Double chance forecast
| Bookmaker | 1X | 12 | X2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bet365 |
13/100
|
13/100
|
2/1
|
| 888sport |
1/10
|
3/20
|
21/10
|
Odds are current as of the material publication date
Team total goals prediction
Bookmakers have set the following team goal totals for this match: Real Madrid — 2.5 goals; Villarreal — 1 goal.
Real Madrid team total goals
For Real Madrid's team total, Over 2 goals at 1.40 is shorter than Under 2 at 2.70. At the 2.5-goal line, Over is 1.80 and Under 1.95. At the 3-goal line, Under at 1.58 is shorter than Over at 2.30.
| Under | Team total | Over |
|---|---|---|
| 2.70 | 2 | 1.40 |
| 1.95 | 2.5 | 1.80 |
| 1.58 | 3 | 2.30 |
Villarreal team total goals
For Villarreal's team total, Over 0.5 goals at 1.45 is much shorter than Under 0.5 at 2.65. At the 1-goal line, Under is 1.72 and Over 2.05; at 1.5 goals, Under at 1.32 is clearly shorter than Over at 3.10.
| Under | Team total | Over |
|---|---|---|
| 2.65 | 0.5 | 1.45 |
| 1.72 | 1 | 2.05 |
| 1.32 | 1.5 | 3.10 |
