Odds overview
Union Saint-Gilloise are slight favourites to win at 2.28, while Real Sociedad are offered at 2.95; the draw is 3.70. Over 2.5 goals is favoured at 1.63, compared with 2.17 for Under 2.5. Union Saint-Gilloise Draw No Bet (0) is offered at 1.70, shorter than Real Sociedad Draw No Bet (0) at 2.06.
Why Union Saint-Gilloise are favourites
Bookmakers make the hosts slight favourites: Union Saint-Gilloise are 2.28 to win, while Real Sociedad are 2.95 and the draw is 3.70.
- In Matchday 1 of the UEFA Europa League league phase, the Belgian club beat Viktoria Plzeň 3:0, while the Spanish side lost 1:2 at home to Bournemouth.
- In the tournament statistics ahead of this match, the Brussels club rank first for shots on target (13.0) and second for expected goals, or xG (3.33).
Form and Line-up Union Saint-Gilloise
- On 11 October 2026, Union Saint-Gilloise drew 1:1 at home with Oud-Heverlee Leuven in the domestic league.
- In the tournament statistics, the team have yet to concede at home, placing them joint last among all participants for goals conceded (0.0).
- Visiting head coach Pellegrino Matarazzo described the Belgian side as a direct, vertical team who press high, and said he expected an intense match.
Probable Union Saint-Gilloise line-up (3-1-4-2): Hervé Koffi, Noim Shibani, Massire Sylla, Nikki Havenaar, Kamiel Van de Perre, Guilherme Smith, Louis Patris, Darius Olaru, Besfort Zeneli, Relebohile Mofokeng, Mateo Biondic
Form and Line-up Real Sociedad
- On 11 October 2026, Real Sociedad beat Deportivo A Coruña 3:2 at home in La Liga, although they allowed their opponents to cut a 3:0 lead to one goal in the second half.
- After that game, Matarazzo acknowledged the need to move the ball forward more quickly and directly, and to maintain concentration until the final whistle.
- Midfielder Pablo Marín is available for selection for the European match.
Probable Real Sociedad line-up (4-5-1): Álex Remiro, Pablo Marín, Mamadou Sarr, Jon Martín, Sergio Gómez, Luka Sučić, Yangel Herrera, Arsen Zakharyan, Carlos Soler, Ander Barrenetxea, Gonçalo Guedes
The teams' chances
Union Saint-Gilloise are 2.28 to win, with fair odds of 2.39 and a probability of 41.9%. The draw is quoted at 3.70, with fair odds of 3.88 and a probability of 25.8%. Real Sociedad are available at 2.95 to win; their fair odds are 3.09, with a probability of 32.4%.
| Result | Average odds | Average fair odds | Probability without margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| Union Saint-Gilloise win | 2.28 | 2.39 | 41.9% |
| Draw | 3.70 | 3.88 | 25.8% |
| Real Sociedad win | 2.95 | 3.09 | 32.4% |
Total goals prediction
At the 2.5-goal line, Over is much shorter at 1.63 than Under at 2.17. For the 2-goal total, Over is 1.27 compared with 3.35 for Under, while at 3.5 goals Under is favoured at 1.48 against 2.49 for Over.
| Line | Under | Over |
|---|---|---|
| 2.5 | 2.17 | 1.63 |
| 2 | 3.35 | 1.27 |
| 3.5 | 1.48 | 2.49 |
Handicap prediction
Union Saint-Gilloise Draw No Bet (0) is shorter at 1.70 than Real Sociedad Draw No Bet (0) at 2.06, indicating that the hosts are considered the more likely winners.
| Home | Handicap | Away |
|---|---|---|
| 1.70 | 0 | 2.06 |
Both teams to score prediction
Both teams to score — Yes is favoured at 1.55, compared with 2.35 for Both teams to score — No. The No option means that at least one team will not score.
| Both teams to score | Odds |
|---|---|
| Yes | 1.55 |
| No | 2.35 |
Double chance forecast
| Bookmaker | 1X | 12 | X2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bet365 |
11/25
|
29/100
|
1/2
|
| William Hill |
11/25
|
29/100
|
1/2
|
| 888sport |
11/25
|
29/100
|
1/2
|
Odds are current as of the material publication date
Team total goals prediction
Bookmakers have set the following team goal totals for this match: Union Saint-Gilloise — 1.5 goals; Real Sociedad — 1.5 goals.
Union Saint-Gilloise team total goals
For Union Saint-Gilloise's team total, Over 0.5 goals is much shorter at 1.19 than Under 0.5 at 4.05. At the 1-goal line, Over is favoured at 1.50 against 2.45 for Under; at 1.5 goals, Under at 1.78 is slightly shorter than Over at 1.96. At the 2-goal line, Under is 1.30 compared with 3.27 for Over.
| Under | Team total | Over |
|---|---|---|
| 4.05 | 0.5 | 1.19 |
| 2.45 | 1 | 1.50 |
| 1.78 | 1.5 | 1.96 |
| 1.30 | 2 | 3.27 |
Real Sociedad team total goals
For Real Sociedad's team total, Over 0.5 goals is noticeably shorter at 1.25 than Under 0.5 at 3.50. At the 1.5-goal line, Under is favoured at 1.61 against 2.20 for Over, while at 2 goals Under is much shorter at 1.22 than Over at 3.90.
| Under | Team total | Over |
|---|---|---|
| 3.50 | 0.5 | 1.25 |
| 1.61 | 1.5 | 2.20 |
| 1.22 | 2 | 3.90 |
Who Will Referee the Match
Giorgi Kacheishvili (Georgia)
Matches — 9 (International matches, 2025/26–2026/27);
Average fouls per match — 24;
Average yellow cards per match (including second yellow cards) — 4;
Matches with a red card — 1 of 9;
Matches with a penalty — 1 of 9.
