Odds overview
Albania are clear favourites: an Albania win is available at 1.06, compared with 10.00 for a draw and 30.00 for a San Marino win. In the main totals market, Over 2.5 goals at 1.38 is much shorter than Under 2.5 goals at 2.81.
Why Albania are favourites
Bookmakers strongly favour the visitors: an Albania win is offered at 1.06 (an estimated 87.6% probability excluding the margin), a draw at 10.00 and a San Marino win at 30.00.
- Albania began their UEFA Nations League campaign with a 2:0 win over Belarus, while San Marino lost 0:7 to Finland.
- Albania head coach Rolando Maran has publicly stated his aim of finishing first in the group and intends to adopt a more attacking approach.
- Rey Manaj, Ernest Muci and Marash Kumbulla have also strengthened the visitors' attacking and defensive options after returning to the national team from injury.
Form and Line-up San Marino
San Marino focus primarily on defending in home UEFA Nations League matches. They have had fewer than 11.5 shots in each of their last 10 home games in the competition.
The hosts' defensive approach involves tight marking and regular fouls: more than 23.5 fouls were recorded in each of their last 10 UEFA Nations League home matches.
- San Marino took fewer than 3.5 corners in each of their last 10 UEFA Nations League home matches.
- San Marino committed more than 11.5 fouls in 9 of their last 10 UEFA Nations League home matches.
- San Marino had fewer than 4.5 shots on target in 9 of their last 10 UEFA Nations League home matches.
Probable San Marino line-up (4-3-2-1): Edoardo Colombo, Filippo Fabbri, Michele Cevoli, Marco Pasolini, Alessandro Tosi, Lorenzo Capicchioni, Cristian Meloni, Alessandro Golinucci, Samuele Zannoni, Nicolas Giacopetti, Nicola Nanni.
Alessandro Golinucci's availability is in doubt after he was sent off in the previous match.
Form and Line-up Albania
Albania began the tournament with a convincing 2:0 win over Belarus, defending resolutely and preventing their opponents from scoring.
Albania's matches have remained disciplined: at least one goal has been scored in each of their last 10 matches across all competitions, but the combined number of shots on target did not exceed 9.5 in 9 of their last 10 UEFA Nations League games.
- Albania committed fewer than 12.5 fouls in 9 of their last 10 UEFA Nations League matches.
- Albania were caught offside fewer than 1.5 times in 8 of their last 10 UEFA Nations League matches.
- Fewer than 4.5 yellow cards were shown in 8 of Albania's last 10 UEFA Nations League matches.
Probable Albania line-up (4-2-3-1): Alen Sherri, Elseid Hysaj, Ardian Ismajli, Berat Djimsiti, Stavro Pilo, Ylber Ramadani, Kristjan Asllani, Arbër Hoxha, Ernest Muci, Myrto Uzuni, Rey Manaj.
Thomas Strakosha is injured, while Armando Broja and Nedim Bajrami have not been called up to the national team.
The teams' chances
The margin-free estimate gives Albania an 87.6% chance of winning: an Albania win is offered at 1.06, with fair odds of 1.14. The draw has a 9.3% probability, with odds of 10.00 and fair odds of 10.77; a San Marino win is rated at 3.1%, with odds of 30.00 and fair odds of 32.30.
| Outcome | Average odds | Average fair odds | Margin-free probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| San Marino win | 30.00 | 32.30 | 3.1% |
| Draw | 10.00 | 10.77 | 9.3% |
| Albania win | 1.06 | 1.14 | 87.6% |
Total goals prediction
At the 2.5-goal line, Over 2.5 is much shorter at 1.38 than Under 2.5 at 2.81. The odds favour Over 2 goals even more strongly — 1.14 compared with 4.65 for Under 2. At the 3.5-goal line, the odds are closer: Under 3.5 is available at 1.76 and Over 3.5 at 1.99.
| Line | Under | Over |
|---|---|---|
| 2.5 | 2.81 | 1.38 |
| 2 | 4.65 | 1.14 |
| 3.5 | 1.76 | 1.99 |
Double chance forecast
| Bookmaker | 1X | 12 | X2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 888sport |
17/2
|
1/25
|
1/100
|
Odds are current as of the material publication date
Team goals prediction
Bookmakers have set the following team goal lines for this match: San Marino — 0.5 goals; Albania — 3.5 goals.
San Marino team goals
For San Marino's team goals, Under 0.5 is available at 1.33 compared with 3.05 for Over 0.5; at the 1.5-goal line, Under is an even stronger favourite — 1.02 compared with 8.40 for Over.
| Under | Team goals | Over |
|---|---|---|
| 1.33 | 0.5 | 3.05 |
| 1.02 | 1.5 | 8.40 |
Albania team goals
For Albania's team goals, Over 2.5 is favoured at 1.52 over Under 2.5 at 2.39. At the 3.5-goal line, Under is 1.56 and Over is 2.30; at 4.5 goals, Under is available at 1.21 compared with 3.85 for Over.
| Under | Team goals | Over |
|---|---|---|
| 2.39 | 2.5 | 1.52 |
| 1.56 | 3.5 | 2.30 |
| 1.21 | 4.5 | 3.85 |
Who Will Referee the Match
Mihály Kaprál (Hungary)
Matches — 11 (international fixtures, 2025/26–2026/27);
Average fouls per match — 25;
Average yellow cards per match (including second yellow cards) — 4.1;
Matches with a red card — 0 of 11;
Matches with a penalty — 2 of 11.
Edoardo Colombo
Simone Giocondi
Marcello Mularoni
Gabriel Capicchioni
Nicola Nanni
Samuel Pancotti
G. Bugli
Pietro Marinucci
Pietro Amici
Enea Della Balda
Alen Sherri
Samuele Sina
Ardian Ismajli
Berat Djimsiti
Mario Mitaj
Anis Mehmeti
Ernest Muçi
Juljan Shehu
Kristjan Asllani
Myrto Uzuni
Rey Manaj
Etrit Berisha
Mario Dajsinani
Elseid Hysaj
Marash Kumbulla
Stavros Pilios
Klevi Qefalija
Luis Hasa
Ylber Ramadani
Taulant Seferi
Arbër Hoxha
Cristian Shpendi
Mirlind Daku
