Odds overview
Albania are the clear favourites: an Albania win is available at 1.06, compared with 10.00 for a draw and 30.00 for a San Marino win. In the main totals market, Over 2.5 goals at 1.38 is favoured over Under 2.5 goals at 2.81.
Why Albania are favourites
Bookmakers strongly favour the visitors: an Albania win is offered at 1.06 (around an 87.6% probability without margin), a draw at 10.00 and a San Marino win at 30.00.
- Albania began their Nations League campaign with a 2:0 win over Belarus, while San Marino lost 0:7 to Finland.
- Albania head coach Rolando Maran has publicly stated his aim of finishing top of the group and intends to play more attacking football.
- The return of Rey Manaj, Ernest Muci and Marash Kumbulla from injury has also strengthened the visitors in attack and defence.
Form and Line-up San Marino
San Marino focus primarily on defending in home Nations League matches. They have taken fewer than 11.5 shots in their last 10 home games in the competition.
The hosts' defensive approach involves tight play and regular fouls: more than 23.5 fouls were recorded in each of their last 10 home Nations League matches.
- San Marino took fewer than 3.5 corners in their last 10 home Nations League matches.
- San Marino committed more than 11.5 fouls in 9 of their last 10 home Nations League matches.
- San Marino had fewer than 4.5 shots on target in 9 of their last 10 home Nations League matches.
Probable San Marino line-up (4-3-2-1): Edoardo Colombo, Filippo Fabbri, Michele Cevoli, Marco Pasolini, Alessandro Tosi, Lorenzo Capicchioni, Cristian Meloni, Alessandro Golinucci, Samuele Zannoni, Nicolas Giacopetti, Nicola Nanni.
Alessandro Golinucci's availability is in doubt after he was sent off in the previous match.
Form and Line-up Albania
Albania began the tournament with a convincing 2:0 win over Belarus, defending resolutely and preventing their opponents from scoring.
Albania's matches have also remained disciplined: at least one goal was scored in each of their last 10 matches across all competitions, but the combined number of shots on target did not exceed 9.5 in 9 of their last 10 Nations League matches.
- Albania committed fewer than 12.5 fouls in 9 of their last 10 Nations League matches.
- Albania were caught offside fewer than 1.5 times in 8 of their last 10 Nations League matches.
- Fewer than 4.5 yellow cards were shown in 8 of Albania's last 10 Nations League matches.
Probable Albania line-up (4-2-3-1): Alen Sherri, Elseid Hysaj, Ardian Ismajli, Berat Djimsiti, Stavro Pilo, Ylber Ramadani, Kristjan Asllani, Arbër Hoxha, Ernest Muci, Myrto Uzuni, Rey Manaj.
Thomas Strakosha is injured, while Armando Broja and Nedim Bajrami have not been called up.
The teams' chances
The margin-free estimate gives Albania an 87.6% chance of winning: an Albania win is offered at 1.06, with fair odds of 1.14. The draw has a 9.3% probability, with odds of 10.00 and fair odds of 10.77; San Marino have a 3.1% chance of winning, with odds of 30.00 and fair odds of 32.30.
| Outcome | Average odds | Average fair odds | Margin-free probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| San Marino win | 30.00 | 32.30 | 3.1% |
| Draw | 10.00 | 10.77 | 9.3% |
| Albania win | 1.06 | 1.14 | 87.6% |
Total goals prediction
At the 2.5-goal line, Over 2.5 is much shorter at 1.38 than Under 2.5 at 2.81. At the 2-goal line, the odds favour Over 2 even more strongly — 1.14 compared with 4.65 for Under 2. At 3.5 goals, the odds are closer: Under 3.5 is available at 1.76 and Over 3.5 at 1.99.
| Line | Under | Over |
|---|---|---|
| 2.5 | 2.81 | 1.38 |
| 2 | 4.65 | 1.14 |
| 3.5 | 1.76 | 1.99 |
Double chance forecast
| Bookmaker | 1X | 12 | X2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 888sport |
17/2
|
1/25
|
1/100
|
Odds are current as of the material publication date
Team total goals prediction
Bookmakers have set the following team goal totals for this match: San Marino — 0.5 goals; Albania — 3.5 goals.
San Marino team goal total
For San Marino's team goal total, Under 0.5 is available at 1.33 compared with 3.05 for Over 0.5; at the 1.5-goal line, Under 1.5 is an even stronger favourite — 1.02 compared with 8.40 for Over 1.5.
| Under | Team total | Over |
|---|---|---|
| 1.33 | 0.5 | 3.05 |
| 1.02 | 1.5 | 8.40 |
Albania team goal total
For Albania's team goal total, Over 2.5 at 1.52 is favoured over Under 2.5 at 2.39. At 3.5 goals, Under 3.5 is available at 1.56 and Over 3.5 at 2.30; at 4.5 goals, Under 4.5 is offered at 1.21 compared with 3.85 for Over 4.5.
| Under | Team total | Over |
|---|---|---|
| 2.39 | 2.5 | 1.52 |
| 1.56 | 3.5 | 2.30 |
| 1.21 | 4.5 | 3.85 |
