San Marino vs Finland: prediction & betting odds 26 September 2026

Odds overview

Finland are clear favourites: a Finland win is available at 1.09, compared with 9.20 for a draw and 25.00 for a San Marino win. In the main totals market, Over 2.5 goals at 1.50 is considerably shorter than Under 2.5 goals at 2.43. No handicap market is available.

Why Finland are favourites

Bookmakers offer 1.09 for a Finland win, 9.20 for a draw and 25.00 for a San Marino win.

• The hosts have struggled for results over a long spell: San Marino have failed to win any of their last 10 matches in all competitions.

• San Marino regularly struggle to create chances: they managed no more than four shots on target in 8 of their last 10 matches in all competitions.

Form and Line-up San Marino

San Marino lost 1:2 to Azerbaijan in a June friendly: Nicola Nanni opened the scoring in the ninth minute, but Azerbaijan turned the match around with two goals. Roberto Cevoli's side played a 4-3-1-2 formation, with Nanni and Giacopetti as the two forwards.

San Marino have also rarely threatened the opposition goal with sustained attacking pressure: in 8 of their last 10 matches in all competitions, they had no more than 11 shots, including blocked efforts.

• San Marino committed at least 12 fouls in 8 of their last 10 matches in all competitions.
• San Marino and their opponents committed at least 26 fouls between them in 8 of San Marino's last 10 matches in all competitions.
• San Marino received at least two yellow cards in 8 of their last 10 matches in all competitions.

Probable San Marino line-up (4-3-1-2): Edoardo Colombo, Filippo Fabbri, Michele Cevoli, Giacomo Parolini, Alessandro Tosi, Samuele Zannoni, Matteo Valli Casadei, Marcello Mularoni, Lorenzo Lazzari, Nicolas Giacopetti, Nicola Nanni

Form and Line-up Finland

Finland ended their spring and summer run with two defeats — 0:4 against Germany, conceding three goals in the second half, and 1:2 against Hungary, when they managed to pull back only one goal after the break. Topi Keskinen, Benjamin Källman and other key players returned to the squad for the September training camp in Italy. Goalkeeper Lukáš Hrádecký is rightly regarded as the team's leading star: at the start of the Ligue 1 season, he has Monaco's highest average rating (7.90), with the club top of the league. Against such weak opposition, however, Finland's first-choice goalkeeper may not play.

• At least eight corners were taken by Finland and their opponents combined in 8 of Finland's last 10 away matches.
• Finland and their opponents received no more than five yellow cards between them in 8 of Finland's last 10 away matches.
• Finland's opponents had more than 11 shots, including blocked efforts, in 8 of Finland's last 10 away matches.

Probable Finland line-up (4-3-3): Lukáš Hrádecký, Tony Miettinen, Ville Koski, Ryan Mahuta, Adam Ståhl, Onni Valakari, Adam Markhiev, Kaan Kairinen, Topi Keskinen, Robin Lod, Benjamin Källman

Absentees: Jesse Joronen, Naatan Skyttä, Niklas Pyyhtiä (injured)

The teams' chances

The margin-free estimate gives Finland an 86.1% chance of winning, with average odds of 1.09 and fair odds of 1.16. A draw is rated at 10.2% (9.20 and 9.81), and a San Marino win at 3.8% (25.00 and 26.65).

Total goals prediction

Over 2.5 goals is available at 1.50, compared with 2.43 for Under 2.5 goals. At the 2-goal line, Over is 1.20 and Under is 3.95; at 3.5 goals, the positions reverse: Under 3.5 is 1.58 and Over 3.5 is 2.26.

Double chance forecast

Bookmaker	1X	12	X2
Bet365	15/2	1/100	—
William Hill	11/2	7/100	1/100
888sport	6/1	3/50	1/100

Odds are current as of the material publication date

Team goals prediction

Bookmakers have set the following team goal lines for this match: San Marino — 0.5 goals; Finland — 2.5 goals.

San Marino team goals

For San Marino's team goals, Under 0.5 at 1.35 is shorter than Over 0.5 at 2.93; at the 1.5-goal line, Under is 1.02 compared with 8.40 for Over.

Finland team goals

For Finland's team goals, Over 2 at 1.30 is considerably shorter than Under 2 at 3.27. At 2.5 goals, Under is 2.06 and Over is 1.70; at the 3-goal line, Under is 1.66 compared with 2.11 for Over.

Who Will Referee the Match

Nathan Verboomen (Belgium)

Matches – 4 (international matches, 2025/26–2026/27);

Average fouls per match – 22;

Average yellow cards per match (including second yellows) – 3;

Matches with a red card – 2 of 4;

Matches with a penalty – 0 of 4.