Odds overview
Finland are the clear favourites: a Finland win is available at 1.09, compared with 9.20 for a draw and 25.00 for a San Marino win. In the main totals market, Over 2.5 goals at 1.50 is much shorter than Under 2.5 goals at 2.43. No handicap market is available.
Why Finland are favourites
Bookmakers offer odds of 1.09 on Finland to win. A draw is available at 9.20, while a San Marino win is quoted at 25.00.
• The hosts have struggled for results over a long spell: San Marino have not won any of their last 10 matches in all competitions.
• San Marino regularly struggle to create chances: they have managed no more than four shots on target in 8 of their last 10 matches in all competitions.
Form and Line-up San Marino
San Marino lost 1:2 to Azerbaijan in a June friendly: Nicola Nanni opened the scoring in the ninth minute, but their opponents turned the game around with two goals. Roberto Cevoli's side played in a 4-3-1-2 formation with Nanni and Giacopetti up front.
The team rarely threaten the opposition goal with sustained attacks: San Marino managed no more than 11 shots, including blocked attempts, in 8 of their last 10 matches in all competitions.
- San Marino committed at least 12 fouls in 8 of their last 10 matches in all competitions.
- San Marino and their opponents committed at least 26 fouls between them in 8 of San Marino's last 10 matches in all competitions.
- San Marino received at least two yellow cards in 8 of their last 10 matches in all competitions.
Probable San Marino line-up (4-3-1-2): Edoardo Colombo, Filippo Fabbri, Michele Cevoli, Giacomo Pasolini, Alessandro Tosi, Samuele Zannoni, Matteo Valli Casadei, Marcello Mularoni, Lorenzo Lazzari, Nicolas Giacopetti, Nicola Nanni
Form and Line-up Finland
Finland ended their spring and summer spell with two defeats — 0:4 to Germany, conceding three goals in the second half, and 1:2 to Hungary, against whom they managed to pull back only one goal after the break. Topi Keskinen, Benjamin Källman and other key players returned to the squad for the September training camp in Italy. Goalkeeper Lukáš Hrádecký is rightly regarded as the team's leading star at present: he has Monaco's highest average rating (7.90) at the start of the French Ligue 1 season, with the club top of the league. However, it is uncertain whether Finland's first-choice goalkeeper will play against such weak opposition.
- At least eight corners were taken by Finland and their opponents combined in 8 of Finland's last 10 away matches.
- Finland and their opponents received no more than five yellow cards between them in 8 of Finland's last 10 away matches.
- Finland's opponents had more than 11 shots, including blocked attempts, in 8 of Finland's last 10 away matches.
Probable Finland line-up (4-3-3): Lukáš Hrádecký, Tony Miettinen, Ville Koski, Ryan Mahuta, Adam Ståhl, Onni Valakari, Adam Markhiev, Kaan Kairinen, Topi Keskinen, Robin Lod, Benjamin Källman
Absentees: Jesse Joronen, Naatan Skyttä, Niklas Pyyhtiä (injured)
The teams' chances
The margin-free estimate gives Finland an 86.1% chance of winning, with average odds of 1.09 and fair odds of 1.16. A draw is rated at 10.2% (9.20 and 9.81), while a San Marino win is rated at 3.8% (25.00 and 26.65).
| Outcome | Average odds | Average fair odds | Margin-free probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| San Marino win | 25.00 | 26.65 | 3.8% |
| Draw | 9.20 | 9.81 | 10.2% |
| Finland win | 1.09 | 1.16 | 86.1% |
Total goals prediction
Over 2.5 goals is available at 1.50, compared with 2.43 for Under 2.5 goals. At a line of 2 goals, Over is quoted at 1.20 and Under at 3.95; at 3.5 goals, the relationship is reversed: Under 3.5 is 1.58 and Over 3.5 is 2.26.
| Line | Under | Over |
|---|---|---|
| 2.5 | 2.43 | 1.50 |
| 2 | 3.95 | 1.20 |
| 3.5 | 1.58 | 2.26 |
Double chance forecast
| Bookmaker | 1X | 12 | X2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bet365 |
6/1
|
3/100
|
— |
| William Hill |
11/2
|
7/100
|
1/100
|
| 888sport |
11/2
|
3/50
|
1/100
|
Odds are current as of the material publication date
Team total goals prediction
Bookmakers have set the following team goal totals for this match: San Marino — 0.5 goals; Finland — 2.5 goals.
San Marino team total goals
For San Marino's team total, Under 0.5 goals at 1.35 is favoured over Over 0.5 goals at 2.93; at a line of 1.5 goals, Under is 1.02 compared with 8.40 for Over.
| Under | Team total | Over |
|---|---|---|
| 1.35 | 0.5 | 2.93 |
| 1.02 | 1.5 | 8.40 |
Finland team total goals
For Finland's team total, Over 2 goals at 1.30 is much shorter than Under 2 goals at 3.27. At 2.5 goals, Under is quoted at 2.06 and Over at 1.70; at a line of 3 goals, Under is 1.66 compared with 2.11 for Over.
| Under | Team total | Over |
|---|---|---|
| 3.27 | 2 | 1.30 |
| 2.06 | 2.5 | 1.70 |
| 1.66 | 3 | 2.11 |
