Odds overview
Fiorentina are slight favourites: an away win is available at 2.35, compared with 2.85 for a home win and 3.75 for a draw. In the main totals market, Over 2.5 goals at 1.55 is considered considerably more likely than Under 2.5 at 2.35. At a handicap of 0, Fiorentina at 1.75 are favoured over Sassuolo at 2.08.
Why Fiorentina are favourites
Bookmakers favour Fiorentina: an away win is offered at 2.35, compared with 2.85 for Sassuolo to win and 3.75 for a draw.
- Fiorentina pose a consistent threat to opposing goals, recording more than 3.5 shots on target in 8 of their last 10 Serie A matches.
- Sassuolo have failed to win 8 of their last 10 matches in all official competitions.
Form and Line-up Sassuolo
In their previous match, on 27 October 2026, Sassuolo lost 2:6 at home to Lazio. A few days earlier, on 24 October, they failed to score away to Como — a 0:2 defeat.
More than 1.5 goals have been scored in each of Sassuolo's last 10 matches in all official competitions.
- Sassuolo's opponents have scored in each of their last 10 matches in all official competitions.
- The two teams have combined for more than 5.5 shots on target in each of Sassuolo's last 10 matches in all official competitions.
Probable line-up: Stefano Turati, Simone Cinquegrano, Cas Odenthal, Duje Ćaleta-Car, Josh Doig, Luca Lipani, Darryl Bakola, Domenico Berardi, Armand Lauriente, Sebastiano Esposito, Andrea Ghion.
Sassuolo will be without the suspended Kristian Thorstvedt and the injured Ismaël Koné and Fedde Leysen.
Form and Line-up Fiorentina
Fiorentina drew 2:2 at home to Atalanta on 29 October 2026. Before that, on 25 October, they lost 1:2 away to Inter Milan.
Goals have also been a regular feature of Fiorentina's matches: Over 1.5 goals has landed in their last 10 games in all official competitions.
- The two teams have combined for more than 5.5 shots on target in each of Fiorentina's last 10 matches in all official competitions.
- The two teams have combined for fewer than 10.5 corners in each of Fiorentina's last 10 away matches in Serie A.
Probable line-up: David de Gea, Álex Jiménez, Radu Drăgușin, Vieri, João Mário, Cher Ndour, Nicolò Fagioli, Marco Brescianini, Franco Mastantuono, Mateo Pellegrino, Alieu Njie.
Fiorentina's Marin Pongračić will miss the match with a thigh injury.
The teams' chances
The margin-free assessment gives Fiorentina a 40.8% chance of winning, with fair odds of 2.45; a Sassuolo win is rated at 33.6% and 2.97, and a draw at 25.6% and 3.91. Market odds are 2.35 for Fiorentina to win, 2.85 for Sassuolo to win and 3.75 for a draw.
| Outcome | Average odds | Average fair odds | Margin-free probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sassuolo win | 2.85 | 2.97 | 33.6% |
| Draw | 3.75 | 3.91 | 25.6% |
| Fiorentina win | 2.35 | 2.45 | 40.8% |
Total goals prediction
On the 2.5-goal line, Over 2.5 is available at 1.55, while Under 2.5 is 2.35. At 3.5 goals, the positions reverse: Under 3.5 is offered at 1.60 and Over 3.5 at 2.35.
| Line | Under | Over |
|---|---|---|
| 2.5 | 2.35 | 1.55 |
| 3.5 | 1.60 | 2.35 |
Handicap prediction
Sassuolo (-1.5) are offered at 4.60 and Fiorentina (-1.5) at 3.80; with a +1.5 handicap, the odds are 1.22 for Sassuolo and 1.14 for Fiorentina. On the -1 line, Sassuolo (-1) are quoted at 4.20 and Fiorentina (-1) at 3.20; on the +1 line, the respective odds are 1.30 and 1.20. At a handicap of 0, Sassuolo are available at 2.08 and Fiorentina at 1.75.
| Home | Handicap | Away |
|---|---|---|
| 4.60 | -1.5 | 3.80 |
| 1.22 | 1.5 | 1.14 |
| 4.20 | -1 | 3.20 |
| 1.30 | 1 | 1.20 |
| 2.08 | 0 | 1.75 |
Both teams to score prediction
Both teams to score — Yes is offered at 1.48, while No is 2.55. The lower odds on Yes suggest that goals from both teams are considered the more likely outcome; No means that at least one team will fail to score.
| Both teams to score | Odds |
|---|---|
| Yes | 1.48 |
| No | 2.55 |
Double chance forecast
| Bookmaker | 1X | 12 | X2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bet365 |
57/100
|
29/100
|
2/5
|
| 888sport |
53/100
|
3/10
|
11/25
|
Odds are current as of the material publication date
Team goals prediction
Bookmakers have set the following team goal totals for this match: Sassuolo — 1.5 goals; Fiorentina — 1.5 goals.
Sassuolo team goals
For Sassuolo, Over 0.5 goals is offered at 1.20 against 3.95 for Under 0.5; on the 1-goal line, Over 1 is 1.45 and Under 1 is 2.65. At 1.5 goals, Under 1.5 at 1.65 has shorter odds than Over 1.5 at 2.15, while on the 2-goal line Under 2 is offered at 1.25 and Over 2 at 3.55.
| Under | Team goals | Over |
|---|---|---|
| 3.95 | 0.5 | 1.20 |
| 2.65 | 1 | 1.45 |
| 1.65 | 1.5 | 2.15 |
| 1.25 | 2 | 3.55 |
Fiorentina team goals
For Fiorentina, Over 0.5 goals is available at 1.15 and Under 0.5 at 4.50; on the 1-goal line, Over 1 is 1.30 and Under 1 is 3.15. At 1.5 goals, the odds are almost level: 1.85 for Over 1.5 and 1.90 for Under 1.5. On the 2-goal line, Under 2 is 1.40 and Over 2 is 2.80.
| Under | Team goals | Over |
|---|---|---|
| 4.50 | 0.5 | 1.15 |
| 3.15 | 1 | 1.30 |
| 1.90 | 1.5 | 1.85 |
| 1.40 | 2 | 2.80 |
Who Will Referee the Match
Matteo Marcenaro (Italy)
Matches — 16 (Serie A, 2025/26–2026/27);
Average fouls per match — 25;
Average yellow cards per match (including second yellows) — 4;
Matches with a red card — 1 of 16;
Matches with a penalty — 2 of 16.
